Whither the Jobs?

Whither the Women?
After Decades on Rise, Labor Participation Rate Is Down

By Nell Henderson
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, July 7, 2006; D01

The trend was clear and consistent. Since the end of World War II and stretching to the start of the current millennium, the percentage of American women entering the labor force rose steadily, at a rate so fast that it offset the steady decline in participation by men.

The influx of fresh workers buoyed economic growth. As companies expanded and demand rose, there were plenty of hands to get the job done.

But women's rush to employment stopped in 2000 and started to decline, as they began to join their male counterparts in retirement, go out on disability and delay paid employment to get more education. Some economists think the high-water mark of female participation in the labor force was in 2000, when it hit 60.3 percent.

"The enormous rise in [the] women's labor force participation rate was destined to run its course," wrote demographer Cheryl Russell in a recent analysis. "Most women who want or need to work are now in the labor force."

This flattening of the women's rate, combined with a continuing decline in the men's rate, has helped tighten the job market and could slow U.S. economic growth in coming years, economists say.

A paper by four Federal Reserve economists to be published this month by the Brookings Institution puts it this way: The decisions recently of so many Americans to opt out of the workforce are "nearly unprecedented in the post-war economic experience" and "seems large and unusually protracted by historical standards."

Contrary to popular theory, Labor Department data do not show a rising proportion of women dropping out of the workforce to spend time with their families. Indeed, the participation rate has fallen since 2000 for both women with children and women without children.

While nonworking women are still much more likely than men to cite "home responsibilities" as their reason for not holding or seeking a job, that's actually less true now than it was in the past. The share of women aged 25 to 54, considered to be in their "prime" working years, who gave that reason for not seeking employment has shrunk for more than a decade. The share of men citing that reason has edged up over the same period, according to a Labor Department analysis of census survey figures from 1990 to 2003.

I haven't checked the unemployment rate, also out this morning (which has been jiggered to be bullshit) but the fact of the matter is that jobs are going away, period, and everybody's participation in the labor market is off as a result.