Happy New Year

In a few hours, it will be a new year. The last one was pretty bad, both personally and for our country. This blog, and you, have been one of the few high spots of a pretty grim 12 months. As the clock inches toward midnight, I want to offer some hopes and dreams for the next year. Most of my hopes for the new year are bound to be dashed, but I want to reflect on the kind of world, and of country, I think we should be working toward.

I hope for a quick and just conclusion to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. I hope for regime change in the US, and a return to our traditional alliances as a member of the world community, rather than a bully who dictates to it. I hope for better international trade deals and removal of commodity subsidies which continue to impoverish Africa and Asia. I hope for a tax code which allows the wealthiest to pull their weight and doesn't reward American corporations for off-shoring jobs or corporate addresses. I hope for social policies which accord the poor and marginalized their full dignities as human beings and the rights which flow from that dignity. Universal access to health care is a human right.

I hope that Just a Bump in the Beltway will continue to be part of my maturation as a writer and analyst, and that I can come to understand all of you and your needs even better. I hope to be a better and more faithful friend and kinder, more compassionate person, slower to anger and quicker to forgive. I hope for a job.

I hope to be part of the civic re-engagement which seems to be called for more than ever this year, and that I can persuade you to join me and cheer on your efforts. I dream that my efforts, joined with yours, really can make this world and this country a better place to live, for all of us. Even with those who disagree with me.

I dream of a year filled with joy, love and hope for all of us. I look forward to the day that this country turns its face to the future with optimism, rather than fear. I look forward to the return of my own optimism. I hope for more friends, a more connected, more committed community (which I will help to build) and lots of opportunities for good food with friends. I look for ways to help those who need a hand up more than I do. I hope to be grateful and graceful enough to accept that hand when it is offered to me. I hope to laugh more and whine less.

Some of these are hopes and dreams, some are resolutions. I find that if I make a bunch of them, by the end of the year I will probably have kept one. This continues the tradition.

Happy New Year from Just a Bump.

Melanie

Literary Devices

Karzai Refuses Deal on 18th Day of Afghan Talks
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Published: December 31, 2003

Filed at 2:36 p.m. ET

KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) -- President Hamid Karzai's insistence on a powerful presidency under Afghanistan's new constitution is driving a dangerous wedge between his Pashtun kinsmen and smaller ethnic groups, delegates and analysts warned Wednesday.

With marathon talks on the new charter at a stalemate, opponents said the strong Pashtun -- and American -- flavor of Karzai's support risked a backlash among minorities whose militias still control much of the country.

``If they don't include our ideas in the constitution, we won't give up our weapons,'' said Habiba Danish, an ethnic Tajik delegate to the ongoing loya jirga in Kabul. ``If they want national unity, we want equal rights.''

The council is in disarray amid open feuding over Karzai's reluctance to share power in a country he says needs strong leadership because it is fractured by ethnic mistrust.
Pashtuns, the country's largest ethnic group and traditional rulers, have rallied behind Karzai -- a boost for a leader maligned here as the ``mayor'' of Kabul for his lack of influence beyond the capital.

But smaller groups from farther north including Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras protest that Pashtuns are ignoring their demands, such as recognizing their languages and sharing more influential government posts.

I believe this is called "foreshadowing" in literary criticism. The same dynamics are at work in Iraq. Further:

Chairman Walks Out of Afghan Council

By CARLOTTA GALL

Published: December 31, 2003

KABUL, Afghanistan, Dec. 30 — The chairman walked out of the loya jirga on Tuesday as nerves began to snap on the 17th day of the grand council, gathered here to draw up a new constitution for Afghanistan.

The chairman, Sebaghatullah Mojadeddi, an elderly professor of Islam, suddenly walked out of his office and went home after speaking on the phone to President Hamid Karzai in the early afternoon.

The loya jirga was already at a standstill, with at least 100 delegates boycotting the voting on final amendments in protest at what many called government interference, and all the political leaders had converged on Mr. Mojadeddi's office.

The arguments that have exploded during the last two days inside the vast tent pitched on the grounds of Kabul Polytechnic have revealed the ugly scars of two decades of fighting and ethnic strife.

The debate in its final stages has turned away from the hot topics of Islam, women and human rights, and centered on the struggle for power between the two main ethnic groups: the Pashtuns, who once more feel themselves in the ascendant, and the Tajiks, who have dominated Kabul since the fall of the Taliban.

Same dynamic in Iraq. Aggrieved minority ethnic group? Check. Chieftains jocking for power? Check. Entrenched, US installed strongman struggling to hold on to power? Check. Foreshadowing. You heard it here first.

Food Safety II

UPDATE: At the suggestion of SME in comments (below), I googled super+e. coli. The results were frightening. Here is a link to a food safety laborator with a discussion of E. Coli 0157.H7, the "super bug," and another to a Genetic Engineering Newsarticle with the unsettling title, "The Reasons Why FDA's BSE Feed Rule Won't Protect Us From BSE."

Food Safety

Bush's Mad Cow Safeguards Not Enough, Critics Say
Wed December 31, 2003 01:20 PM ET

By Charles Abbott and Randy Fabi WASHINGTON (Reuters) -

After issuing a new set of safeguards, the Bush administration must take more steps to protect Americans from mad cow disease, Democratic lawmakers and consumer groups said on Wednesday.

Discovery of the nation's first case of mad cow disease in a Washington state dairy cow last week sent U.S. cattle prices plummeting by 20 percent and prompted more than two dozen nations to halt $3.2 billion in annual imports of U.S. beef.

In an abrupt change in policy, the Bush administration responded on Tuesday with several new restrictions to protect the food supply, including banning sick or injured cattle from use in human food. The ban on "downer" cattle was previously opposed by the White House and the livestock industry. Consumer groups and Democrats welcomed the move, but said more needed to be done to keep food safe. Their top proposal was putting country-of-origin labels on meat sold in U.S. stores no later than Sept. 30, 2004. The Republican-controlled House has passed a catch-all bill that would postpone labeling for two years, a delay sought by meatpackers and grocery stores because of the cost. The Senate will vote on the massive spending bill in January.

Democratic presidential hopeful Dick Gephardt said "we could have traced these animals much better" if country of origin labeling was in effect. More federal meat inspectors also should be hired, Democrats said, but they did not specify how many.

Gephardt, a Missouri congressman, and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, also seeking the Democratic presidential nomination, said the government should help farmers affected by the outbreak. That issue is an important one in agricultural states like Iowa, which hosts the nation's first presidential preference caucus on Jan. 19 "I think that we have to go further," Rep. Rosa DeLauro, a Connecticut Democrat, told Reuters. "We need to test all cattle over the age of three."

The U.S. Department of Agriculture and the meat industry have rejected adopting a program to test all U.S. cattle, modeled after Japan's approach. "It's important that we target our surveillance systems to the highest risk populations -- older cattle that may have been dairy cattle, or breeding cattle that get into the system later -- and that's exactly what we'll do," Agriculture Secretary Ann Veneman said on NBC-TV's "Today" show. Veneman used her power under an animal health act on Tuesday to bar downer cattle from the food supply. The animals, believed to number about 200,000 out of a total annual slaughter of nearly 36 million, still can be used in making pet food and other products not intended for human consumption. A Senate vote in early November to ban downers was quietly overturned during closed-door negotiations with the House. Other new restrictions prohibit the sale of meat from animals held for mad cow testing until results show the meat was safe.

There is a much larger story here, one I hope to cover more thoroughly in coming weeks. This beef scare is related to the hepititis epidemic of a few weeks ago in Pennsylvania and surrounding states: at issue is the safety of our food supply. Bush isn't uniquely culpable, past administrations have bowed to the industries involved rather than pursuing aggressive inspections programs, but I suspect that things are worse now than ever, with so much of the legislative and executive branches of the federal government in the pockets of industrial/corporate interests.

I'll try to bring links to the relevant documents up here over the next few days. This beef problem has been brewing for years, the alarms got issued after the British disaster in 1996, but nothing much has been done on this side of the Atlantic. I thought it was pretty telling when SME in Seattle commented the other day that her family is now vegan, even though her husband was raised in a ranching family.

UPDATE: At the suggestion of SME in comments (below), I googled super+e. coli. The results were frightening. Here is a link to a food safety laboratory with a discussion of E. Coli 0157.H7, the "super bug," and another to a Genetic Engineering Newsarticle with the unsettling title, "The Reasons Why FDA's BSE Feed Rule Won't Protect Us From BSE."

Investigation, Anyone?

(Ret.) Col. David Hackworth shares his thoughts on the eve of the new year:

"Even though Saddam is in the slammer and the fourth-largest army in the world is junkyard scrap, Christmas 2003 was resolutely Orange, and 2004 looks like more of the same. Or worse.

Our first New Year’s resolution should be to find out if the stated reasons for our pre-emptive strike - Iraq's purported weapons of mass destruction and Saddam’s connection with al-Qaeda - constituted a real threat to our national security. Because, contrary to public opinion, the present administration hasn’t yet made the case that Saddam and his sadists aided and abetted al-Qaeda's attacks on 9/11. We also need to know why our $30 billion-a-year intelligence agencies didn’t read the tea leaves correctly, as well as what’s being done besides upgrading the color code to prevent other similar strikes.

Congress should get with the program and lift a page from the U.S. Army handbook on how to learn from a military operation. When an Army-training or actual-combat op is concluded, all the key players assemble for an honest, no-holds-barred critique of everything that’s gone down - the good, the bad and the ugly. Some of the participants might walk away black and blue, but everyone learns from the mistakes.

Donald Rumsfeld, Paul Wolfowitz and retired Gen. Tommy Franks should be required to report to a congressional committee convened to investigate both the invasion and the planning - or lack of planning - for the occupation of Iraq. This committee must operate without the political skullduggery that occurred during the numerous investigations into the Pearl Harbor catastrophe - when high-level malfeasance that cost thousands of lives and put America’s national security in extreme jeopardy was repeatedly covered up for more than 50 years.

Our Iraqi casualties deserve nothing less than the unvarnished truth. Only then will their sacrifices not have been in vain. And only then can we all move on with the enlightenment we need to protect and preserve our precious country’s future."

Evacuated casualties, dead and injured from all causes, now top 14,000. How bad does it have to get before the public rises up?

Eat the Poor

The Budget Politics of Being Poor

Published: December 31, 2003

Quietly and painfully, most states are choosing to crimp the health-care safety net for their poorest and most politically defenseless residents. An ominous new study shows that up to 1.6 million impoverished and working-poor Americans — at least a third of them children — have been deliberately knocked from publicly financed health care programs in the last two years. Officials in 34 states are opting to slash Medicaid and poor children's health insurance coverage as a path of least resistance to the balanced budgets mandated by law.

States have raised poverty standards beyond federal requirements, increased bureaucratic delays and even shut down children's health programs entirely to keep entitled poor people off the rolls. For each dollar thereby saved in the state budget, statehouses are losing $4 to $7 in federal aid. Yet more such counterproductive "economizing" can be expected next year, according to the study, by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a government watchdog group.

During the 1990's boom, those who despaired of getting universal health insurance through federal action looked to expanding state programs as the best way to protect the working poor. But many of the same states that were increasing health coverage were also cutting taxes. Unlike the feckless tax-cutters in Congress, they cannot simply bury the resulting deficits in future debt. Something had to give, and it turns out to be programs like the hard-won gains in health insurance.

Things would be even worse except for the $20 billion in state emergency aid that the Republican-led Congress was embarrassed into approving at the height of the tax-cut frenzy this year. Since Congress is showing no signs of picking up the slack when it comes to health coverage, it should vote at least a renewal of this aid next year.

Here's a link to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities study. It lists the truly draconian measures being taken on a state-by-state basis. What kind of society uses hard times to make things worse for the most vulnerable?

Waste, Fraud and Abuse

Halliburton to Lose Iraq Oil Project

Dec 31, 10:06 AM (ET)

By LARRY MARGASAK

WASHINGTON (AP) - Just weeks after Pentagon auditors said Halliburton may have overcharged taxpayers to import oil to Iraq, the Defense Department is removing the Army Corps of Engineers from its role in supervising the program.

The Defense Energy Support Center, which buys fuel for the military throughout the world, will supervise the shipments and choose new contractors to replace Halliburton, Vice President Dick Cheney's former company.

"We're taking over the mission," the center's spokeswoman, Lynette Ebberts, said Tuesday.

Democratic lawmakers have criticized the prices charged the U.S. government by Halliburton's KBR subsidiary, which has been importing refined petroleum products into Iraq under a mission awarded without competitive bids. Cheney headed Halliburton before running for vice president.

Earlier this month, the Defense Department's auditing agency supported the Democrats' allegations, finding the company may have charged up to $61 million too much for delivering gasoline to Iraqi citizens.

The Dems haven't been a very effective opposition party, but as things heat up in the election cycle, they seem to be coming out of the coma they've been in since Florida.

Novakwatch

On Sunday, 12/28, Steve Gilliard said, "It's time to take the gloves off" and start holding the Heathers, the Media Whores, accountable in this election cycle, and challenged bloggers to take it up.

Atrios picked up the call today and then offered to set up a special blogroll for the bloggers who take on the challenge. On his comments thread, I volunteered to take on the Prince of Darkness himself, Robert Novak. By email, comes word from another of the Atrios Irregulars offering to help us set up a group blog. If we are going to set up a separate site or blog together from our own sites is still up in the air, but this will be the New Year's project for a bunch of bloggers. Whether I'm writing here at Bump or over at a new site in addition to this, if you've got Novak news, email me. My dead tree paper is the WaPo, which belongs to his syndicate but doesn't run every column, so if I miss one, send me a link. Neither Atrios or Markos got that big without help.

This is the roll-out of Prince of Darkness Watch.

Veterinary Medicine

Agriculture Dept. Announces New Restrictions on Beef
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Published: December 30, 2003

Filed at 4:23 p.m. ET

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Agriculture Secretary Ann Veneman on Tuesday announced a list of new restrictions to further enhance the safety of the American beef supply, including a meatpacking ban on the use of sick ``downer'' cattle like the one discovered last week with mad cow disease.

She also announced bans against the use of small intestines and head and spinal tissue from older cattle in the U.S. food chain, as well as changes in slaughterhouse techniques with the aim of preventing accidental contamination of meat with cow nerve tissue. Mad cow disease is spread through such brain and spinal cord tissue.

I was very moved by commentor SME in Seattle's comments on yesterday's "mad cow" story, recalling a family connection to earlier days in ranching when this was still a family business, rather than part of a huge agribusiness, when beef cows ate grass and sileage rather than manufactured food.

Beef by-products continue to be used in chicken and hog feed, however, which means that the prions, the protein pathogens which cause both human and animal brain diseases remain in the food chain. Europe doesn't allow this and neither should we.

When Things Go Wrong

The big hole in postings today was caused by problems with MT communicating with my hosting server. I have to hand out big kudos to the tech support department at A+ Hosting Corporation. James in tech support spent the entire day today working with me by email to fix the problem. It seems repaired, at least well enough until I can have Bump designer Melanie Goux look over the template codes. Call me a coward, but getting into the guts of MT isn't something I'm ready to do yet.

Findings?

Ashcroft Recuses Self From CIA Leak Probe

Dec 30, 2:14 PM (ET)

By LARRY MARGASAK

WASHINGTON (AP) - Attorney General John Ashcroft on Tuesday recused himself from the politically-sensitive investigation of who leaked the name of a CIA operative. The Justice Department quickly named a special prosecutor to take over the investigation.

The announcement was made by James Comey, the department's new No. 2 official, at the Justice Department. Instead, the U.S. attorney in Chicago, Patrick J. Fitzgerald, will take over the investigation and report to Comey, who is Ashcroft's top deputy.

"He has the power and authority to make whatever prosecutorial judgment he needs," Comey said.

I just saw the newsconference. The only question which applies, and the one Comey refused to answer, is "why now?" Subtext: what has the investigation learned that Ashcroft needs distance from?

January and February will be interesting months.

UPDATE: While this news is quite sensational and gives us lots of room for speculation, we aren't going to get much in the way of print journalism out of this until subpeonas are issued, unless the CIA or whatever other Justice pros with a gripe decide to leak. This will be quiet until then. There is some possibility that it will come up in the CIA hearings which are supposed to start next month, but it will be up to Chuck Shumer to bring it up, and he seems of a mind to let the DoJ investigation to run its course. We can, however, ponder (bring ice cream, not just popcorn) the delightful image of multiple investigations of the bAdministration running concurrently. I look forward to some snow days in January and February.

It's also hard to know if this is going to be a DoJ story or an intel story. I don't know who covers Justice for the NYT or WaPo, but the intel reporters are pretty well known. This matters once the leaks start.

Signs of the Times

E.J. Dionne is what passes for a liberal in the pundit classes today. His parsing of the current political times seems spot-on.

Here's what's interesting for 2004: The conventional wisdom, fed by shrewd Republican operatives and commentators, is that Democrats, so out there in their antipathy for Bush, will push their party into an extremist wonderland and lose white men, security moms and anybody else who does not share their desire for revenge.
The opposite is true. Democrats will not have to spend inordinate amounts of time or money in this election year "uniting their base." Opposition to Bush has already done that.

In the 2000 election, Bush had an advantage over Al Gore because Republican rank-and-filers so hated Bill Clinton -- and so wanted to win -- that they gave Bush ample room to sound as moderate as John Breaux or Olympia Snowe. Bush's 2000 Republican National Convention hid the base behind the appealing face of inclusiveness and outreach. Gore, in the meantime, had to claw back the votes of liberals and lefties who had strayed to Ralph Nader.

This time the Democrats will have most of the election year to appeal to swing voters. Democrats are so hungry to beat Bush that they will let their nominee do just about anything, even be pragmatic and shrewd.

That's why 2004 will be very different from 2003. Democrats who loved Dean's attacks on Bush this year now want Dean to prove he can beat him. Dean's opponents know this, which is why their core case is that Dean can't win. And watch for the appearance of the new, pragmatic Howard Dean, the doctor with an unerring sense of his party's pulse.

Economic Disconnect

Paul Krugman provides some context on the unemployment data from yesterday.

So if jobs are scarce and wages are flat, who's benefiting from the economy's expansion? The direct gains are going largely to corporate profits, which rose at an annual rate of more than 40 percent in the third quarter. Indirectly, that means that gains are going to stockholders, who are the ultimate owners of corporate profits. (That is, if the gains don't go to self-dealing executives, but let's save that topic for another day.)
Well, so what? Aren't we well on our way toward becoming what the administration and its reliable defenders call an "ownership society," in which everyone shares in stock market gains? Um, no. It's true that slightly more than half of American families participate in the stock market, either directly or through investment accounts. But most families own at most a few thousand dollars' worth of stocks.

A good indicator of the share of increased profits that goes to different income groups is the Congressional Budget Office's estimate of the share of the corporate profits tax that falls, indirectly, on those groups. According to the most recent estimate, only 8 percent of corporate taxes were paid by the poorest 60 percent of families, while 67 percent were paid by the richest 5 percent, and 49 percent by the richest 1 percent. ("Class warfare!" the right shouts.) So a recovery that boosts profits but not wages delivers the bulk of its benefits to a small, affluent minority.

The bottom line, then, is that for most Americans, current economic growth is a form of reality TV, something interesting that is, however, happening to other people. This may change if serious job creation ever kicks in, but it hasn't so far.

The big question is whether a recovery that does so little for most Americans can really be sustained. Can an economy thrive on sales of luxury goods alone? We may soon find out.

That last line is chilling. I'd say that the fall in durable goods orders in November is indicative of things to come, and that the disconnect between the stock market and the underlying economy isn't good for either.

The accidental triple post below appears to be of a piece with problems we are having with the host server. Of course, this sort of thing only happens on the eve of long holiday weekends....

Down the Drain

Jobless Count Skips Millions
The rate hits 9.7% when the underemployed and those who have quit looking are added.

By David Streitfeld, Times Staff Writer

In some eyes, a nation of burger flippers, temps and Wal-Mart clerks isn't the worst scenario for the economy. The worst is that companies continue to eliminate jobs faster than they create them, setting up a game of musical chairs for the labor force.

That prospect alarms Erica Groshen, an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. "If you plot job losses versus gains on a chart, it's shocking," she says.

Losses are running at about the same rate they were in 1997 and 1998, two good years for the economy. But job creation in the first quarter of 2003 — the most recent period available — was only 7.4 million, the lowest since 1993.

"If this goes on too long, you'd have to worry there's something fundamentally wrong," Groshen says. Although the economy has picked up since March, "so far I haven't seen anything that suggests job creation is picking up."

A real unemployment rate of 9.7% is scary enough, but the really fearful stuff is most of the way down the article: the underlying trend. If it is true, as some suggest, that Bush's future hangs on jobs, he's in trouble. The underlying trends show net jobs in a downward spiral. Here are some charts and stats from Max Sawicky's shop.

Feckless USDA

Lax rules and testing put public, cattle industry at risk

When mad cow disease was discovered in Canada earlier this year, the cattle industry and the U.S. Agriculture Department shrugged off the incident as regrettable, but unlikely to affect beef in the United States. Resisting calls for more testing of animals and new restrictions on how they are raised and slaughtered, the industry boasted the safest beef supply in the world.

Those boasts now look more like wishful thinking. If initial reports that a cow found infected this month in Washington state came from Canada are accurate, this discovery would underscore the consequences of industry-driven policies that rarely call for testing animals.

Cattlemen and meat packers have fought calls for more frequent inspections, and tighter feeding and slaughtering rules. Such measures have long been identified as necessary to fully protect U.S. beef.

The laissez-faire approach to inspections and opposition to regulations might help cattlemen save money in the short run, but it exposes them to far greater losses over time through damage to the reputation of U.S. beef. Already, U.S. beef bans by 28 countries risk shutting off as much as $6 billion in annual exports. Experts see beef prices domestically dropping by 20% or more. And with the announcement on Sunday that meat from the sick Holstein has reached retail markets in eight states and Guam, concern is spreading in spite of assurances by Agriculture Department officials that the public faces no health risk

Shortsighted, industry sponsored defects in the beef supply include the use of beef by-products that slips into cow feed, an extremely light inspection program which screens only 2 or 3 out of every 10,000 cows and the use of "downer" or sick animals for human consumption.

I remember seeing the horrifying spectacle of entire herds being destroyed in the UK during their 1996 mad cow outbreak. At the time, I was pretty sure that it would take something just that awful to get the USDA moving and Congress to provide funding. Be careful what you wish for: the fact that so many countries are now banning US beef may finally get us a beef safety program with teeth.

Stretched Thin

The Thinning of the Army

Published: December 29, 2003

Over a third of the Army's active-duty combat troops are now in Iraq, and by spring the Pentagon plans to let most of them come home for urgently needed rest. Many will have served longer than a normal overseas tour and under extremely harsh conditions. When the 130,000 Americans rotate out for home leave, nearly the same number will rotate in. At that point, should the country need to send additional fighters anywhere else in the world, it will have dangerously few of them to spare.

This is the clearest warning yet that the Bush administration is pushing America's peacetime armed forces toward their limits. Washington will not be able to sustain the mismatch between unrealistic White House ambitions and finite Pentagon means much longer without long-term damage to our military strength. The only solution is for the Bush administration to return to foreign policy sanity, starting with a more cooperative, less vindictive approach to European allies who could help share America's military burdens.

It's nice of the Times Ed board to notice that there is a problem, but this superficial editorial doesn't begin to explore its depths. The Army is already broken and it is going to take years to fix the damage. The WaPo at least notices the symptom:

Army Stops Many Soldiers From Quitting
Orders Extend Enlistments to Curtail Troop Shortages
By Lee Hockstader
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, December 29, 2003; Page A01

Chief Warrant Officer Ronald Eagle, an expert on enemy targeting, served 20 years in the military -- 10 years of active duty in the Air Force, another 10 in the West Virginia National Guard. Then he decided enough was enough. He owned a promising new aircraft-maintenance business, and it needed his attention. His retirement date was set for last February.

Staff Sgt. Justin Fontaine, a generator mechanic, enrolled in the Massachusetts National Guard out of high school and served nearly nine years. In preparation for his exit date last March, he turned in his field gear -- his rucksack and web belt, his uniforms and canteen.
Staff Sgt. Peter G. Costas, an interrogator in an intelligence unit, joined the Army Reserve in 1991, extended his enlistment in 1999 and then re-upped for three years in 2000. Costas, a U.S. Border Patrol officer in Texas, was due to retire from the reserves in last May.

According to their contracts, expectations and desires, all three soldiers should have been civilians by now. But Fontaine and Costas are currently serving in Iraq, and Eagle has just been deployed. On their Army paychecks, the expiration date of their military service is now listed sometime after 2030 -- the payroll computer's way of saying, "Who knows?"

The three are among thousands of soldiers forbidden to leave military service under the Army's "stop-loss" orders, intended to stanch the seepage of troops, through retirement and discharge, from a military stretched thin by its burgeoning overseas missions.

"It reflects the fact that the military is too small, which nobody wants to admit," said Charles Moskos of Northwestern University, a leading military sociologist.

To the Pentagon, stop-loss orders are a finger in the dike -- a tool to halt the hemorrhage of personnel, and maximize cohesion and experience, for units in the field in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere. Through a series of stop-loss orders, the Army alone has blocked the possible retirements and departures of more than 40,000 soldiers, about 16,000 of them National Guard and reserve members who were eligible to leave the service this year. Hundreds more in the Air Force, Navy and Marines were briefly blocked from retiring or departing the military at some point this year.

By prohibiting soldiers and officers from leaving the service at retirement or the expiration of their contracts, military leaders have breached the Army's manpower limit of 480,000 troops, a ceiling set by Congress. In testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee last month, Gen. Peter Schoomaker, the Army chief of staff, disclosed that the number of active-duty soldiers has crept over the congressionally authorized maximum by 20,000 and now registered 500,000 as a result of stop-loss orders. Several lawmakers questioned the legality of exceeding the limit by so much.

When the government stops honoring its contracts with our "volunteer" military, the government becomes a press gang. This is nothing less than a draft by other means.

The Serf Society II

The White-Collar Blues
By BOB HERBERT

Published: December 29, 2003

I am surprised at how passive American workers have become.

A couple of million factory positions have disappeared in the short time since we raised our glasses to toast the incoming century. And now the white-collar jobs are following the blue-collar jobs overseas.

Americans are working harder and have become ever more productive — astonishingly productive — but are not sharing in the benefits of their increased effort. If you think in terms of wages, benefits and the creation of good jobs, the employment landscape is grim.

The economy is going great guns, we're told, but nearly nine million Americans are officially unemployed, and the real tally of the jobless is much higher. Even as the Bush administration and the media celebrate the blossoming of statistics that supposedly show how well we're doing, the lines at food banks and soup kitchens are lengthening. They're swollen in many cases by the children of men and women who are working but not making enough to house and feed their families.

I.B.M. has crafted plans to send thousands of upscale jobs from the U.S. to lower-paid workers in China, India and elsewhere. Anyone who doesn't believe this is the wave of the future should listen to comments made last spring by an I.B.M. executive named Harry Newman:

"I think probably the biggest impact to employee relations and to the H.R. field is this concept of globalization. It is rapidly accelerating, and it means shifting a lot of jobs, opening a lot of locations in places we had never dreamt of before, going where there's low-cost labor, low-cost competition, shifting jobs offshore."

Red-herring alert. What this is really about is rapacious profit maximization. IBM and Microsoft are wealthy companies. They improve by pennies their Q10s by exchanging American workers by Indian or Southeast Asian ones. This is all about bumping up already fat corporate profits.

As I wrote a week or so ago, there was once a social compact between employers and the communities in which they employed peope, that they were a part of the continuum of public commons which included our home lives, our civic lives and our working lives. No more. We tolerate the Wal-Marts of the world who use welfare to subsidize low wage jobs, just as we do with the lowest ratings in the military.

A tweak of tax policy would change all of this, but that can't happen in a society which treats jobs as some sort of gift. As Herbert mentions, we have 9 MILLION unemployed (and those are only the ones we can count, the actual number is much higher) and we are not alarmed enough about this to demand that our congresscritters pass a 13 week extension of Unemployment Insurance. This is shameful.

The Daily News

A friend called tonight to complain that this site isn't personal enough, that it doesn't have Melanie's daily sermon.

When I put up an opinion piece from my own thoughts, the comments show no result. You readers seem to like my commentary on news of the day, rather than my own pontification. If you want to change that, I'll bet you'll tell me.

Since day one of this still-new blog, I've tried to respond to your issues and concerns. If you've got thoughts about how I might better do that, send those thoughts along.

Passing Shot and Matt Zemeck, thank you for proposing some of my words here for the beauty contest at Wampum. I didn't enter because I don't think these exercises are worth the time; I have a number of bloggers I admire. They are reflected in my bloglist, which is either in the column on the right or aggregated at the bottom of this page, depending on your browser. There will be a new, expanded bloglist next month, along with some tweaking of the site. Tell me what you would like. Mel Goux and I will try to accomodate you, and our own wishes for this site: that it helps to beat Bush in '04.

From the Front Pages

The LA Times Op-Ed section today is virtually one-stop shopping for timely and thoughtful commentary. Juan and Shahin Cole have become daily reads for those who are trying to understand the culture, politics and religion of Iraq. Their LAT column today points out the dangers of the path we seem to be pursuing in Iraq.

Shiites Are Emerging From Fear

Before Hussein's capture, most Shiites cooperated, if sometimes reluctantly, with the American occupiers. They were said to be fearful that a U.S. military withdrawal might lead to the return of Hussein. With Hussein out of the picture, Shiites who dislike U.S. policies may become more vocal in their opposition.

Shiite-American relations are clouded by the memory of early 1991, when President George H.W. Bush called on Shiites to rise up against Hussein, then stood aside while Hussein's helicopter gunships slaughtered them. There is substantial discontent with the U.S. occupation in Shiite areas. On Dec. 10, crowds marched in Najaf and Karbala carrying placards calling for an immediate turnover of authority to Iraqis. Although Najaf and Karbala have been relatively moderate politically, Shiites there are increasingly weary of U.S. rule.

Other Shiite currents are virulently anti-American. The firebrand cleric Muqtada Sadr and his vast network of radical mosque preachers in the slums of East Baghdad and elsewhere have repeatedly called for an immediate U.S. withdrawal. They have accused American soldiers of blasphemy and of spreading pornography. They demand an Islamic republic on the Iran model, with clerical rule.

The Sadrists have held many rallies in downtown Baghdad and Basra but have been able to mobilize only 5,000 to 10,000 demonstrators, at most, because many Shiites sympathetic with Muqtada's cause had stayed away out of fear of Hussein's return. Muqtada's reaction to Hussein's capture was, on the surface at least, conciliatory; he also has moderated his vehemence in recent weeks in response to severe U.S. pressure. He suggested that Dec. 13, when Hussein was captured, be "a day for national reconciliation and to rise up with a free, democratic, independent and unified Iraq." He added, "It is a shining dawn without Saddam." Few think Muqtada is really a democrat, but if he again takes his criticism to the streets, it's likely the ranks of his supporters will swell now that Hussein is in U.S. custody.

Shortly after his capture, Hussein met with four members of the interim Governing Council. He reportedly gestured to Adnan Pachachi, a Sunni, and asked him why he was associating with Shiites. That insult explains why many Shiites are grateful to the U.S. for overthrowing the tyrant. Now that he's in captivity, they hope the U.S. will lay the groundwork for a Shiite-majority government. If the U.S. disappoints them, it could face a newly assertive Shiite political majority unafraid to engage in mass protests and other forms of resistance.

Since we seem to be headed down the road of appointing some sort of Iraqi authority which will have limited credibility with the Iraq people as a prelude to drawing down our forces before the election here, will the US media bother to cover the civil war we seem to be heading into? Just askin'. Elsewhere in the LAT:

Some American experts say that if a credible government cannot be formed by the deadline, the U.S. should extend the time frame, rather than install a government without Iraqi or international support.

"It's not written in stone that anything must happen on June 30," said Noah Feldman, a law professor at New York University who has been an advisor to both Bremer and leading Iraqi figures. "If there's no credible legitimate transitional government ready to assume power on June 30, we should not hand power to a noncredible body as the second best."

If the plan doesn't work, skeptics say, the U.S. occupation authority on June 30 may just change its name to the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, and the unelected Iraqi Governing Council might seek to cling to power.

A failure to make the deadline or the continuation of an unelected government would be a setback for the Bush administration, and not merely in terms of its election-year image. It probably would deter the United Nations from becoming more active in Iraq and would fuel suspicion in the Arab world that the U.S. is reluctant to cede power.

Meanwhile, the most pressing problem for both the United States and Iraqis who support the interim government is security. The cumbersome processes of even an interim, partial democracy will be difficult to carry out if anti-American forces increase their attacks on both U.S. forces and on cooperating Iraqis.

WaPo covers a different aspect of the evolving situation.

Attacks Force Retreat From Wide-Ranging Plans for Iraq
By Rajiv Chandrasekaran Washington Post Foreign Service

Sunday, December 28, 2003; Page A01 BAGHDAD, Dec. 27 -- The United States has backed away from several of its more ambitious initiatives to transform Iraq's economy, political system and security forces as attacks on U.S. troops have escalated and the timetable for ending the civil occupation has accelerated.

Plans to privatize state-owned businesses -- a key part of a larger Bush administration goal to replace the socialist economy of deposed president Saddam Hussein with a free-market system -- have been dropped over the past few months. So too has a demand that Iraqis write a constitution before a transfer of sovereignty.

With the administration's plans tempered by time and threat, the U.S. administrator of Iraq, L. Paul Bremer, and his deputies are now focused on forging compromises with Iraqi leaders and combating a persistent insurgency in order to meet a July 1 deadline to transfer sovereignty to a provisional government.

"There's no question that many of the big-picture items have been pushed down the list or erased completely," said a senior U.S. official involved in Iraq's reconstruction, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. "Right now, everyone's attention is focused [on] doing what we need to do to hand over sovereignty by next summer."

The new approach, U.S. diplomats said, calls into question the prospects for initiatives touted by conservative strategists to fashion Iraq into a secular, pluralistic, market-driven nation. While the diplomats maintain those goals are still attainable, the senior official said, "ideology has become subordinate to the schedule."

"The Americans are coming to understand that they cannot change everything they want to change in Iraq," said Adel Abdel-Mehdi, a senior leader of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, a Shiite Muslim political party that is cooperating with the U.S. occupation authority. "They need to let the Iraqi people decide the big issues."

The neocons are out, the pragmatists are in. C-SPAN is rebroadcasting the TNR/Hudson Institute Panel, "Has the neoconservative moment passed?" which Josh Marshal served on a couple of weeks ago (with a terrible cold.)

Liberalism and Religion

Putting God Back in Politics

By JIM WALLIS

It is indeed possible (and necessary) to express one's faith and convictions about public policy while still respecting the pluralism of American democracy. Rather than suggesting that we not talk about "God," Democrats should be arguing — on moral and even religious grounds — that all Americans should have economic security, health care and educational opportunity, and that true faith results in a compassionate concern for those on the margins.

Democrats should be saying that a just foreign and military policy will not only work better, but also be more consistent with both our democratic and spiritual values. And they must offer a moral alternative to a national security policy based primarily on fear, and say what most Americans intuitively know: that defeating terrorism is both practically and spiritually connected to the deeper work of addressing global poverty and resolving the conflicts that sow the bitter seeds of despair and violence.

Many of these policy choices can be informed and shaped by the faith of candidates and citizens — without transgressing the important boundaries of church and state.

God is always personal, but never private. The Democrats are wrong to restrict religion to the private sphere — just as the Republicans are wrong to define it solely in terms of individual moral choices and sexual ethics. Allowing the right to decide what is a religious issue would be both a moral and political tragedy.

Not everyone in America has the same religious values, of course. And many moral lessons are open to interpretation. But by withdrawing into secularism, the Democrats deprive Americans of an important debate.

Wallis frames the religious issues correctly: it's not about "Jesus is my favorite philosopher because he changed my heart." To the extent that religious values inform public policy, they have to be part of the political discussion. That Bush chooses to turn this into religious personalism tells us a great deal more about his character than it does about his faith.

Violence Ramp Up

In Iraq, Pace of U.S. Casualties Has Accelerated
By Vernon Loeb Washington Post Staff Writer Sunday,
December 28, 2003; Page A01

The number of U.S. service members killed and wounded in Iraq has more than doubled in the past four months compared with the four months preceding them, according to Pentagon statistics.

From Sept. 1 through Friday, 145 service members were killed in action in Iraq, compared with 65 from May 1 to Aug. 30. The two four-month intervals cover counterinsurgency operations, far costlier than major combat operations, which President Bush declared over on May 1.

Increases in those wounded in action have been equally dramatic this fall. Since Sept. 1, 1,209 soldiers have received battlefield wounds, more than twice the 574 wounded in action from May 1 through Aug. 30.

Nor have casualties tapered off since the capture of former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein on Dec. 13. Through Friday, 12 service members were killed in action and 105 were wounded with Hussein in custody.

After a summer in which U.S. military commanders believed they were about to turn a corner and see a significant decline in casualties, attacks on American forces increased dramatically in October and early November, prompting a U.S. counteroffensive that culminated in Hussein's capture near Tikrit.

"The rate of casualties over the last four months is an indication that the insurgents are getting better organized," said retired Lt. Col. Andrew F. Krepinevich, director of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, a Washington think tank. "The insurgents have been encouraged by the fact that they have had some success."
.....

The number of soldiers wounded in action totaled 2,333, with an additional 370 injured in non-hostile circumstances, for a total of 2,706. The total wounded in action in counterinsurgency operations, 1,786, is now more than three times the 550 wounded in action during major combat operations.

Peter D. Feaver, a professor of political science at Duke University and an expert on war and public opinion, said continued casualties could reach a "tipping point" at which the Bush administration loses the most important element in public support for the war: a belief that success is likely.

Although Hussein's capture earlier this month helped bolster that belief, Feaver said, the steady "drip-drip-drip of casualties" and criticism of the war by Democratic candidates in next year's presidential election is likely to bring support for the war back down again.

All of the crap about how things are slowly getting better is just crap. Reporters inside Iraq talk about hearing constant bombings, mortaring, explosions and gunfire, even when it isn't around them. The nights are split with the sounds of war. Salam Pax writes:

"Tonight the daily thuds started a bit earlier. It was around 10 and MBC2 was showing [Sleepless in Seattle], I am a bit embarrassed to say this, but I am a sucker for a Meg Ryan movie. The only problem was the sound of the explosions was a bit too close, it wasn’t just the thud we got used to the last two days but a very deep rumble as well, My mother couldn’t stand it any longer after a while and decided to go hide under her bed pillow instead of exchanging glances after each round of explosions and trying hard to guess where that is. It is the third night now, can anyone please tell me what is going on?"

If Bush thinks he's going to have himself out of this by June 30, I'd like to have some of those drugs. Karl Rove might have been a smart guy in the small world of Texas politics with a strong lege, weak governor system, but I think he's in over his head.

Now, if we can just keep the Dems from eating their own...

The Moral Case

I've had this same conversation so many times in the last few months, and again with relatives over the holidays, that I've put some thought into my reply. You've probably had the same conversation a few times yourself: Saddam was a brutal dictator and the world is better off without him, says your sister or your mom or your co-worker.

The question that keeps coming into my mind is this: who decides?

I'm a theologian of the systematic variety, not a moral theologian, the discipline where this discussion would normally fall, but I've studied enough moral theology to be able to adopt a point of view.

In the absence of WMDs, consensus of the state actors who supported us in Afghanistan, and a good majority of world opinion, we decided that the costs the Iraqi people would have to pay to be rid of Saddam were worth the cost. We didn't give them a vote. We decided for them that the tens of thousands who have died so far, as direct result of US actions or in the lawlessness which followed were worth the price of the removal of Saddam, who was not a threat to us which even Colin Powell admitted.

We have allowed the Iraqi people to be treated as children who don't know what's good for them; that's the argument which is left to those who remain pro-war in the face of the lack of WMDs or any serious military threat on the former regime's part. We had to kill in order to save. This argument is as morally bankrupt now as it was in Viet Nam.

The history of this country as failed nation-builder should always make us chary of taking on such assignments: Bosnia and Kosovo are pacified, barely, but hardly functional; Haiti remains a mess; it took the Phillippines nearly half a century to get over our colonial rule. There was no pressing need to invade Iraq, we know this from reading Powell in 2001, and we know it now as the "cooked" intel story becomes ever clearer day by day. The case can be made that intervening in genocides like Kosovo and Bosnia (and the even more pressing cases of Rwanda, Congo and Zimbabwe, where we show no interest whatsoever) is what civilized nations do. In the rump Yugoslavia, that case was broadly made across the Western Alliance and all contributed, as they have in the case of Afghanistan, where we funded the tribal cheiftains and the proto-Taliban in their war against the Soviets.

That the Iraqis were unable or unwilling to depose Saddam (including the failed uprising after the first Gulf War, which Bush I instigated and then failed to support) is their business. If they decided that the possible costs were too high, that is a decision that they, as moral actors, are allowed to make. We made the decision for them, and now further undermine any possible morality for our actions by completely screwing up the aftermath, leaving the Iraqis in worse shape than they were before. If, as a matter of convenience for us, we allow a theocracy to be installed which is as regressive as the Taliban or some of the more unsavory aspects of Saudi Arabia, will we have accomplished a moral aim?

So, when a friend or family member wants to argue to you that removing Saddam was the moral thing to do, ask them, "by whose right? Who gets to decided what is morally right for others, and to demand that they die for it, who speaks for the dead and forever invalided? Who gets to decide that the Iraqis are not moral actors capable of declining the risk that an uprising would have entailed, and decline the risk of the instability we are leaving in our wake?"

If Iraq turns out well (however you want to measure that) it does not expunge all of the convenient thugs we've propped up over the years and continue to support. It will not erase the deaths we caused by war and by bombings and sanctions. It does not make amends for death squads in Nicaragua, El Salvador and Colombia. Take a good, hard look at the list of "coalition partners" in the current conflict and make a list of the number of them you'd care to live in

The Viceroy's Foot

Bush's man rejects Blair weapon claim

Luke Harding in Baghdad
Sunday December 28, 2003
The Observer

Tony Blair was at the centre of an embarrassing row last night after the most senior US official in Baghdad bluntly rejected the Prime Minister's assertion that secret weapons laboratories had been discovered in Iraq.

In a Christmas message to British troops, Blair claimed there was 'massive evidence of a huge system of clandestine laboratories'. The Iraq Survey Group (ISG) had unearthed compelling evidence that showed Saddam Hussein had attempted to 'conceal weapons', the Prime Minister said. But in an interview yesterday, Paul Bremer, the Bush administration's top official in Baghdad, flatly dismissed the claim as untrue - without realising its source was Blair.

It was, he suggested, a 'red herring', probably put about by someone opposed to military action in Iraq who wanted to undermine the coalition.

'I don't know where those words come from but that is not what [ISG chief] David Kay has said,' he told ITV1's Jonathan Dimbleby programme. 'It sounds like a bit of a red herring to me.'

With the Government's policy on the existence of weapons of mass destruction in apparent disarray last night, insurgents inside Iraq yesterday launched another major attack, this time in the southern city of Karbala.
.....

With confusion apparently growing between London and Washington over WMD, the Liberal Democrat foreign affairs spokesman Menzies Campbell said he would be pressing Ministers when Parliament returned in the New Year on what precisely the Government knew. 'It is high time the Prime Minister cleared this matter up once and for all,' he said.

Given the "frostiness" which has crept into Bush-Blair relations over Bush's veto of Tony's proposed Christmas trip to Iraq, it doesn't look like this latest episode is going to do much to warm the alliance. Tony's in big political trouble at home over the missing WMD, with possible further hearings, if Menzies Campbell's comments mean anything, something Tony needs like a hole in the head.

Disasters

Earthquakes. Natural gas explosions. Mudslides. And then there is man-made destruction:

Coordinated Attacks Kill 11 in Iraq

Dec 27, 12:51 PM (ET)

By SAMEER N. YACOUB

KARBALA, Iraq (AP) - Rebels unleashed a coordinated assault on military bases and the governor's office in the southern city of Karbala on Saturday, killing 11 people - including six Iraqi police officers and four coalition soldiers - and wounding at least 172, officials said. Two of the soldiers killed from the U.S.-led occupation force were from Thailand. An Iraqi civilian also was killed.

Attackers detonated four suicide car bombs and fired mortar shells and grenades, wounding at least 37 other coalition soldiers, including five Americans and 19 Bulgarians, U.S. Army Brig. Gen. Mark Kimmitt said in Baghdad. Some 135 Iraqi civilians and police officers also were wounded, said Ali al-Arzawi, deputy director of Karbala General Hospital.

other attacks Saturday, rebels detonated three homemade bombs that set aflame a fuel depot and injured six American soldiers.

Still, military officials said the number of attacks had decreased significantly. Kimmitt said attacks went down from about 50 a day in mid-September to an average of about 15 a day, spiking to 18 on Christmas Day.

He said this was a "technique to terrorize the people of Baghdad and of Iraq."

Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, current president of the U.S.-chosen Governing Council, said Saturday there was "nothing heroic about lobbing an RPG," or rocket-propelled grenade.

"It was a coordinated, massive attack planned on a big scale and intended to do much harm," Polish Maj. Gen. Andrzej Tyszkiewicz said from his headquarters at Camp Babylon, east of Karbala.

Tyszkiewicz called the ambush the most serious attack suffered by coalition forces in the south-central part of Iraq. Poland commands a multinational force of 9,500 soldiers, including 2,400 Poles.

All of those "insurgents" who've been killed or rounded-up don't seem to have decapitated the ability of the guerrillas to perform coordinated attacks. The military still doesn't have a clue about what or who they are up against, despite all the crowing in the press about how much intelligence has has improved. With reporters acting for stenographers for whatever comes out of CENTCOM, it is getting harder and harder to believe what we are being told.

Laura Rozen details the difficulties faced by reporters on the ground in Iraq:

When US Central Command has good news to report in Iraq, as it did after troops from the Fourth Infantry Division captured Saddam Hussein on December 13, it adores the media. But journalists say that when there's bad news--a helicopter crash, a mortar attack--they are increasingly being blocked from covering the story by US soldiers, who frequently confiscate and destroy their film disks and videotapes.

This happened to Detroit Free Press photographer David Gilkey while covering the crash of a CH-47 Chinook helicopter carrying thirty-six US soldiers, shot down near Fallujah on November 2. His film disk was erased by a soldier from the 82nd Airborne, who then forced Gilkey and other journalists on the scene to a site twenty miles away. "Listen, I have respect for these guys," Gilkey says of the soldiers. "I truly understand that they are upset, and angry, that they've lost friends. The point is, however, you don't have the right to take disks and clean them. When did that become standard operating procedure?"

Chip Somodevilla, a Knight Ridder photographer, was accompanying two Iraqi fishermen on their small boat in the Tigris River in Baghdad on December 9, when shots from a high-velocity rifle exploded in the water under the port bow of their twelve-foot craft.

"We looked in the direction from which it was fired--a mansion formerly belonging to Saddam Hussein's nephew--and noticed several men waving their arms in the air and shouting," Somodevilla e-mailed to his editors after the incident. He and the fishermen drove their boat toward the group of men. One of them turned out to be an American in civilian clothing who was carrying a high-velocity rifle outfitted with a silencer and scope.

"He asked who I was and what I was doing," the photographer said. The American, who appeared to be some sort of Special Operations paramilitary or intelligence official, "asked me to produce identification and then attempted to destroy my press credentials. He forcefully quizzed me about my assignment and then turned to an Iraqi standing nearby" to verify aspects of the photographer's story.

"After being shot at, I felt very threatened and swore to the man that I was an American and that I was on his side," Somodevilla said. "Yeah, John Walker [Lindh, the so-called American Taliban] made a lot of promises too," the American interrogator snapped back. "What have you done for your country?" He let Somodevilla go with the warning, "We're watching you."

Plame: Blowback II

A number of lefty bloggers have already covered the Allen/Milbank article this morning which updates the latest on the Plame Affair. The news that a fourth prosecuter has been added, and that Ashcroft has already contributed a conflict of interest have been well noted. There is another piece of backstory which hasn't been brought up so far.

Allen and Milbank wrote:

BLOCKCapitol Hill aides in both parties said [Ambassador Joseph] Wilson had badly hurt his credibility with his apparently enthusiastic participation in a spread in the January issue of Vanity Fair that includes a glamorous photo of him and his wife outside the White House, a scarf and dark glasses shielding her. In another photo in the magazine, she shields her face with the front section of The Washington Post as he eats breakfast barefoot on their deck with the Washington Monument in the distance....

Wilson, in an interview, defended his participation in the glossy magazine's article. "The Republicans are going to say anything to deflect attention from the crime, which was exposing a CIA operative," he said, adding that his wife's "cover was completely blown" before the article appeared.

The Guardian/Observer ran a "comments" opinion about this kind of hit piece earlier this month. New York Guardian editor wrote about Vanity Fair Editor Graydon Carter:

His January 2004 letter will blast Bush's 'wrongheaded' state visit to Britain, ridicule Tony Blair as having a schoolboy's crush on the President and slam 'deceptions' in the run-up to a war in Iraq that is 'out of control'.

In previous columns he has accused Bush of lying over weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and shaming the country by allowing members of the Saudi royal family to fly out of the US without questioning two days after the 11 September terrorist attacks. He has slammed healthcare gaps, security, the burgeoning deficit, tax cuts for the rich, the US reputation abroad and corruption.

This has proved surprising given his magazine's even-handed coverage of the war on Iraq, compared with the supine, pro-Bush stance of much of the American press.
Denouncing Bush has made his Editor's Letter one of the best-read parts of the magazine, with advertisers clamouring to pay top rates for the page opposite the column.
........

This weekend it emerged that he is also writing an anti-Bush book and, he told The Observer, has been campaigning behind the scenes to get Hillary to run for president 'right now'.

'I feel like a lone voice in the wilderness. But there is a large, seething majority out there against what Bush is doing to this country. This administration is as fundamentalist as the Islamics,' Carter said.

His book, What We Have Lost, which will examine the failings of Bush in office, is to be published late next summer as the election campaign approaches its climax.

'It is about the fragile state of US democracy, looking at what this administration has done to the environment, the judiciary and civil liberties. This is a very dangerous time in America,' he said.

He promised it will not be 'hysterical' or a rant, but fact-based - researched by him and a small team and written himself: 'It is different from the other books out there. I am not a liberal ideologue; I am very much a libertarian. I never got invited to the Clinton White House.

Watch for this "glossy magazine" meme as a way to discredit Carter and what he says. Carter is on a serious campaign to make his editorial remarks part of the intellectual left's (if such a thing remains) ongoing thought process, or for at least that part of the left which doesn't read New York Review of Books, The Progressive or In These Times. This is a highly unusual approach for the editor of a "general interest," mostly celebratory fluff magazine to take. He seems to want to create a safe space for New York liberals of a certain stripe to pick up the flag for Hillary when the time is ripe, but with his own pages under attack like this, I think we can expect a little shorter term writing. Has anyone seen the January "Letter from the Editor" yet? Reflect in Comments below.

I'll be out to pick it up tomorrow, when I recover from the spreads laid on by the SIL's Best Friend on Christmas Eve, and the outstanding, over the top Christmas dinner created by the Brother. When I've recovered to the point where my now-pudgy fingers can type another recipe, I'll share with you what he did with the ham (I don't like ham, but I was up in the middle of the night slicing off more morsels.) The news may be pretty awful, but the holiday was made special by family and friends, hearty welcomes, a very special little boy (Hi, William) and his family (Hi, Tom and Beth), the biggest puppy in the world and the smallest kitten when their noses touched.

Yeah, I get a little sentimental around the holidays. Many thanks for all the good wishes. Over the River and Through the Woods to the Brother and the SIL usually means preparing for generosity, lots of critters, a beautiful, water-lit sunset or two, and laughing too hard when you are very full. This holiday did not disappoint, but the SIL noted that, at the rate the Brother is adding dishes to holiday meals, either larger plates will be needed, or some substitutions will have to occur. I played prep cook for this meal and learned some of the Brother's secrets. I'm preparing to foist them on others. He's a professional, I'll urge you to try them at home after I've tested them in the Bump test kitchen.

God Bless Us Everyone

A lot of the news today is pretty awful, no matter how you spin it. I looked around for a "feel good" Christmas Eve story this morning, but everything I found was hokey. I'm off until Friday, away to spend Christmas with family, and I wanted to leave with something other than a troubled heart, so here is a link to the beautiful web page of the Carmelites of Indianapolis. This page allows you to enter the many features of their complex website. It's worth spending a little time with. May all the blessings of this season be yours. Peace.

Still More Bad Bugs

Source: Mad Cow Disease Found in Washington State
Tue December 23, 2003 05:18 PM ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Mad cow disease has been found in Washington state, a U.S. industry official said on Tuesday, in what would be the first incidence of the disease in the United States.

The official, who wished not to be identified, said she was unsure of how many cases were found.

Obviously, this is developing, as Drudge would say. CNN reports that Ag Secretary Anne Venneman will be holding a presser shortly. This is obviously the story to follow tonight: if there is anything to this, and there is much damage, it could have serious ramifications for the economy, as it did in Britain, and the recovery we've got going right now doesn't have terrific fundamentals under it.

Update: (Mostly from NPR, so no links)One case has been discovered in a cow raised near Yakima, Washington, on December 9. It was processed in as many as three different plants, which will need to be identified to see if recall notices should be issued. There was an isolate case in Canada earlier this year, but that outbreak was contained very quickly, and it is hoped that early intervention in this case will also prevent a wider outbreak.

Obviously, if one case was discovered, much more systematic testing of the beef supply will need to be undertaken immediately. An NPR agricultural commentator noted a couple of problems: USDA doesn't systematically test all of the beef in the processing system, performing spot checks instead, which is what turned up this preliminarily positive result. This means that we don't really have a clue about how much more disease might be out there, or have the system capacity to do more rigorous testing. Second, we use rendered cow products as cattle feed, which means we may be reintroducing diseased material back into the system. While I'm vegan friendly, I love beef though I don't eat it very often. But cow cannibalism for these ruminant vegatarian animals just seems wrong to me. It's forbidden in Europe and Britain after their Bovine Spongiform Encephelopathy disasters of a few years back.

Here is CNN's summary. Here are the graphs which advance the story:

Mad cow disease first appeared in the United Kingdom in the mid-1980s and resulted in the slaughter of millions of cattle.

The infectious agent takes at least six to eight years to cause symptoms in cows, meaning that the infected cow may have spread the disease to other cattle during that time.

What this means is that this story, if there is a problem, is going to take a while to develop: between spotty testing and the big unknown of how many animals have been exposed, expect this to take at least a couple of weeks to unwind. The transmission of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob to humans is relatively rare, so if my brother decided to cook a rib roast for Christmas, I won't turn it down.

Beef sales are up due to all the folks on low-carb/high protein diets like Atkins, so prices have been pretty stable. Does anybody know if we are a net importer or exporter of beef?

UPDATE 2: If I'd thought about it for thirty seconds longer before I posted, I would have made note that there is a larger story here: the safety of our food supply and how the USDA works. We just had a hepatitis outbreak in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio traced back to green onions from Mexico. I've been told that the USDA doesn't have much in the way of teeth for either testing or enforcement. Obviously, this is not an area I know much about and look forward to comments from those of you who do know.

UPDATE 12/24 (Hattip Pogge in Comments:World Markets Move to Block U.S. Beef Top Importer Japan Imposes an Indefinite Ban Following Mad Cow Announcement
By Joseph Coleman
Associated Press
Wednesday, December 24, 2003; 7:25 AM

TOKYO -- The mad cow disease scare in the United States spread quickly to Asia and Europe, where eight nations including top U.S. market Japan blocked the import of American beef products after a cow in Washington state tested positive for the illness.

Japan, the world's top importer of U.S. beef, imposed an indefinite ban and planned to recall certain meat products already on the market, while South Korea halted customs inspections of U.S. beef and suspended sales for meat already on supermarket shelves.
Hong Kong, Australia, Taiwan, Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia followed suit. Later Wednesday, Russia also issued a temporary ban, Agriculture Minister Alexei Gordeyev said.

In Brussels, the European Union, which already bans much U.S. beef because of fears about growth hormones, said it would not take any additional measures against U.S. beef.

AND

"We've made a lot of enemies around the world with our own arbitrary tariffs," said Dean Cliver, a professor of food safety at UC Davis. "I think they will take great pleasure in embargoing U.S. beef.''

When a single cow in Canada was diagnosed with the disease in May, the United States slapped an immediate ban on Canadian cattle and beef products, which continues to this day. Other nations imposed similar restrictions.

"Canada did lose their export market to most of the world,'' said California State Veterinarian Dr. Richard Breitmeyer. "If this were to happen to the United States, it would have a very serious impact.''

Beef represents the 10th-largest agricultural export for California, with Asian nations the primary market. "We are already in contact with Japan and South Korea, to be sure that their decisions are based on science and don't become a political issue,'' said Holly Foster, spokeswoman for the California Beef Council, a Pleasanton trade group.

Bi-Polar Economy

I've been hearing for months that the Wal-Marts have been empty in the days before the 15th and the 30th of each month. Here's the black and white retail profit data for the shopping season so far. This demonstrates how polarized our have/have not economy has become.

Retails Latest Markdown? Profit Forecasts

....Merrill Lynch said on Tuesday that analyst Dan Barry trimmed his earnings estimates for Kohl's Corp. (KSS.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , J.C. Penney Co. Inc. (JCP.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , Sears, Roebuck and Co. (S.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Target Corp. (TGT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) .
Barry was among the more bullish analysts at the start of the holiday shopping season, and his estimates on all four retailers had been above the average of Wall Street forecasts.

"The low-end consumer is spending much less than expected," Barry said in a research note.
......................

LUXURY CHAINS GAIN

Luxury chains have been among the few bright spots, with analysts expecting a strong sales and profit performance from the likes of Nordstrom Inc. (JWN.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , Saks Inc. (SKS.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Neiman Marcus Group Inc. (NMGa.N: Quote, Profile, Research) .

UPDATE: By way of Brad DeLong (whose site is no longer crashing my browser, praise be, it has been a long drought):

Wal-Mart says holiday sales at low end
By Neil Buckley in New York Published: December 22 2003 19:19
| Last Updated: December 22 2003

Wal-Mart warned on Monday that sales were still tracking at the low end of its target range for December, in the latest sign that holiday retail sales in the US could be lacklustre.

Forecasters and retailers had been looking for a sharp rebound in sales from last Christmas, when, by some measures, sales growth was the slowest for 30 years.
The National Retail Federation, the industry lobby group, forecast total holiday sales would increase 5.7 per cent, year on year - the strongest increase since 1999 - compared with only a 2.2 per cent gain last year. It said on Monday it was sticking to its forecast.

But Wal-Mart, the world's biggest retailer, which accounts for about 8 per cent of non-automotive retail sales in the US, warned for the second week running that sales from stores open at least a year were still towards the low end of its 3-5 per cent projected range.

Frosty the Diplo

The Sunday Mirror is a London tab, which means keep the salt shaker handy, but they've had a history of breaking "insider" stories.

BUSH AND BLAIR: THE BIG FALL-OUT

Dec 21 2003
Relations in 'deep freeze' since Saddam caught
By Chris Mclaughlin, Political Editor

TONY Blair and George Bush's love-in has collapsed over the rebuilding of Iraq. The two leaders have fallen out over plans for the reconstruction of the country and the heavy-handed action of American troops against the civilian population.

And the rift has been deepened by a Washington ban on a proposed morale-boosting visit by the PM to British troops in Iraq during the Christmas holiday.

According to diplomats, relations between the allies have gone into "deep freeze" since the capture of Saddam Hussein last weekend.
.................

Mr Blair and Mr Bush have had at least three phone conversations during the past seven days which Whitehall officials described as "increasingly terse".

A Downing Street insider said: "Relations between the two are at the lowest ebb since they first met.

"The PM is not happy at having to deal with Britain's European partners who have been left out of the rebuilding contracts. Of course they are still talking - but the diplomatic temperature is in the deep freeze."

Blair wants a Christmas visit to British troops in Iraq. Bush says no, he wants to be the only head of state to make a Christmas visit. Nobody gets in the way of Bush's stage management. Blair also feels stuck between a Bush administration which wants to deny prime reconstruction contracts to the Europeans, and the Europeans themselves, with whom he has extremely complex relations. The level of mean-spiritedness visible here ought to be a wake-up call to Blair.

The Road So Far

For Vietnam Vet Anthony Zinni, Another War on Shaky Territory

By Thomas E. Ricks
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, December 23, 2003; Page C01

Anthony C. Zinni's opposition to U.S. policy on Iraq began on the monsoon-ridden afternoon of Nov. 3, 1970. He was lying on a Vietnamese mountainside west of Da Nang, three rounds from an AK-47 assault rifle in his side and back. He could feel his lifeblood seeping into the ground as he slipped in and out of consciousness.
.............

"Iraq is in serious danger of coming apart because of lack of planning, underestimating the task and buying into a flawed strategy," he says. "The longer we stubbornly resist admitting the mistakes and not altering our approach, the harder it will be to pull this chestnut out of the fire."

Three years ago, Zinni completed a tour as chief of the Central Command, the U.S. military headquarters for the Middle East, during which he oversaw enforcement of the two "no-fly" zones in Iraq and also conducted four days of punishing airstrikes against that country in 1998. He even served briefly as a special envoy to the Middle East, mainly as a favor to his old friend and comrade Secretary of State Colin L. Powell.
Zinni long has worried that there are worse outcomes possible in Iraq than having Saddam Hussein in power -- such as eliminating him in such a way that Iraq will become a new haven for terrorism in the Middle East.

"I think a weakened, fragmented, chaotic Iraq, which could happen if this isn't done carefully, is more dangerous in the long run than a contained Saddam is now," he told reporters in 1998. "I don't think these questions have been thought through or answered." It was a warning for which Iraq hawks such as Paul D. Wolfowitz, then an academic and now the No. 2 official at the Pentagon, attacked him in print at the time.

Now, five years later, Zinni fears it is an outcome toward which U.S.-occupied Iraq may be drifting. Nor does he think the capture of Hussein is likely to make much difference, beyond boosting U.S. troop morale and providing closure for his victims. "Since we've failed thus far to capitalize" on opportunities in Iraq, he says, "I don't have confidence we will do it now. I believe the only way it will work now is for the Iraqis themselves to somehow take charge and turn things around. Our policy, strategy, tactics, et cetera, are still screwed up."

'Where's the Threat?'

Anthony Zinni's passage from obedient general to outspoken opponent began in earnest in the unlikeliest of locations, the national convention of the Veterans of Foreign Wars. He was there in Nashville in August 2002 to receive the group's Dwight D. Eisenhower Distinguished Service Award, recognition for his 35 years in the Marine Corps.

Vice President Cheney was also there, delivering a speech on foreign policy. Sitting on the stage behind the vice president, Zinni grew increasingly puzzled. He had endorsed Bush and Cheney two years earlier, just after he retired from his last military post, as chief of the U.S. Central Command, which oversees operations in Iraq.

"I think he ran on a moderate ticket, and that's my leaning -- I'm kind of a Lugar-Hagel-Powell guy," he says, listing three Republicans associated with centrist foreign policy positions.

He was alarmed that day to hear Cheney make the argument for attacking Iraq on grounds that Zinni found questionable at best:
................

He is especially irked that, as he sees it, no senior officials have taken responsibility for their incorrect assessment of the threat posed by Iraq. "What I don't understand is that the bill of goods the neocons sold him has been proven false, yet heads haven't rolled," he says. "Where is the accountability? I think some fairly senior people at the Pentagon ought to go." Who? "That's up to the president."

Zinni has picked his shots carefully -- a speech here, a "Nightline" segment or interview there. "My contemporaries, our feelings and sensitivities were forged on the battlefields of Vietnam, where we heard the garbage and the lies, and we saw the sacrifice," he said at a talk to hundreds of Marine and Navy officers and others at a Crystal City hotel ballroom in September. "I ask you, is it happening again?" The speech, part of a forum sponsored by the U.S. Naval Institute and the Marine Corps Association, received prolonged applause, with many officers standing.

Zinni says that he hasn't received a single negative response from military people about the stance he has taken. "I was surprised by the number of uniformed guys, all ranks, who said, 'You're speaking for us. Keep on keeping on.' "

Even home in Williamsburg, he has been surprised at the reaction. "I mean, I live in a very conservative Republican community, and people were saying, 'You're right.' "

But Zinni vows that he has learned a lesson. Reminded that he endorsed Bush in 2000, he says, "I'm not going to do anything political again -- ever. I made that mistake one time."

Of the journos working the military beat, Tom Ricks is one of the best. He understands the way the uniforms think, particularly those with command responsibility. Anthony Zinni built his stars the hard way. This interview is as succinct a summary of where we are now and how we got there as I've ever seen.

UPDATE: Washington-based journo Laura Rozen must be hearing things. She speculates that a group of senior retired generals, possibly including Zinni, are organizing to "denounce Bush and the neocons." She promises "more...soon." Hmmm...

Rozhinkes mit Mandeln

I'll be away from Wednesday morning through Friday afternoon. Whether you are Christian or Jew, I hope you will also have some time to spend with family and friends before this holiday season ends. This is my Christmas card to you: hold close what you love. It is too soon gone, one way or another. But, while we love, we are alive and that's the one way we have of proving it.

Hannukah isn't the Jewish equivalent of Christmas, except in this way: both are miracles. A child of God born to a virgin woman--perhaps you have a mythic explanation of this. I don't. I contemplate the story of the Annunciation to Mary and find only myself, and the birth of faith in my own heart. And I find you. We are all that blessed.

It was pure faith that kept that oil lamp lit in the Tabernacle in Jerusalem. And, more than once, I've had one day of oil to keep me going through 8 days of work. Faith provided. I often notice that there is a direct relationship between my faith in myself and my faith in God, but this tendency seems to have gotten out of hand with George Bush. My doubts about myself and about God don't take a holiday. Francis of Assisi reminds us that Christ was God's humility, and it was a really hard lesson. G. K. Chesterton wrote, "The Christian ideal has not been tried and found wanting; it has been found difficult and left untried." I think this is true of all of us who take on faith, we are going to be miserable failures most of the time. That's the price for setting the bar high enough to matter.

My prayer for you as we end the year, take stock and prepare to move on: measure your wealth in love, given and received. Feed somebody else, and be fed by somebody else. Get teary at least once. Spend some time alone. Laugh. A lot. At dumb jokes and at yourself.

Now I have to go clean the catbox. And that is love, too.

My your holiday be filled with love and with awe.

CEO Administration

Administration struggles to find right approach to N. Korea talks

By Warren P. Strobel
Knight Ridder Newspapers

WASHINGTON - Vice President Dick Cheney intervened last week to insist on an uncompromising approach to nuclear talks with North Korea, effectively blocking a resumption of negotiations this year, according to a senior administration official.

Efforts are underway to get the diplomacy back on track. But the vice president's move illustrates the difficulty the Bush administration is having in agreeing on what incentives - if any - to offer the reclusive communist state to give up its nuclear weapons programs.
It also underscores the unusually powerful foreign policy role played by Cheney.

The senior official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, quoted the vice president as saying in one pivotal meeting on North Korea: "I have been charged by the president with making sure that none of the tyrannies in the world are negotiated with. We don't negotiate with evil; we defeat it."

Except that we negotiated with Libya, and high level meetings have already been conducted with Syria.

I wonder if the psychodynamics of these neocons isn't even more important than ideology: Cheney, Rummy, Wolfie and Perle, for example, make their own decisions about complex policy situations, regardless of whether or not it is their area of expertise. The State Department has a raft of diplomats who have made a career out of reading the signals coming out of the peculiar leadership in Pyongyang, but their years of study are simply over-ruled. Rummy knows nothing about nation building, that much is abundantly clear, and tried to do away with both the War College and the Peace Institute, where people have spent decades trying to learn from the nation building mistakes of campaigns past. The post-conflict plan for Iraq crafted by the Arabists at State was simply discarded, yet none of these guys evinces so much as a shred of doubt. There is something pathological about this. Even the MBA types who are all process understand that the content matters, even if their skill is in massaging the process. Maybe it's just me, but it doesn't look like anything is working, at the level of process or of substance.

The Real Class War

Health deteriorates in the two-class society

VIEW FROM THE LEFT

Harley Sorensen, Special to SF Gate

If there was any doubt that rich conservative America wants its boot on the neck of poor people, Ronald Reagan, a Republican from California, put that to rest when he became president. Reagan's policies extolled the rich and helped make them richer. He blamed the poor for being poor, and he helped them stay that way.

One remarkable result of this class warfare against the poor is that Americans, rich and poor, have poorer health and die sooner. That's the argument of a physician in the state of Washington, who was brought to my attention by my good e-mail buddy, Phil Dunn, of that state.
.....

"For example [among developed nations], we have the highest infant-mortality rate, the highest child-poverty rate, the highest teen-pregnancy rate, the highest child-abuse death rate and so on. There are no indicators in which we excel, except in spending money on health care, for we spend half of the world's health-care bill."

This wasn't always so. What has caused the change? "Fifty years ago," Bezruchka said, "it was the poorest families that saw the biggest gains in income. Now, as you all know, it is only the rich and super rich that are seeing gains in income."

Bezruchka's studies show that residents of nations with a strong middle class and small income disparities, such as Sweden or Japan, have the best overall health. Countries like Nigeria and the United States, with huge gaps in income, have the worst.

One of the purposes of comprehensive social safety net programs like the New Deal and Great Society is to soften the consequences of income inequality. As these programs are dismantled, a greater burden falls on the poor and working class. Harley uses the email from the doctor to make the point that this group of voters, who are the majority in this country, vote against their best interest on the basis of two issues: guns and abortion.

As a practical matter, leaving the Second Amendment alone and not fretting about Roe, which isn't going to be overturned any time soon (and the "partial birth" abortion law will probably be overturned on appeal) for this election cycle, and stressing economic issues and the genuine harm done by this Congress and Administration is the way to get these voters' attention. Hammering on the things which will get their reaction is a losing strategy.

Worked to Death

The New York Times has the second major story on dangerous work places in three days. This is a large, investigative piece, the kind of thing that can move legislation. I won't try to summarize it, but give you the lead graphs and some context.

WHEN WORKERS DIE
U.S. Rarely Seeks Charges for Deaths in Workplace
By DAVID BARSTOW

Published: December 22, 2003

Every one of their deaths was a potential crime. Workers decapitated on assembly lines, shredded in machinery, burned beyond recognition, electrocuted, buried alive — all of them killed, investigators concluded, because their employers willfully violated workplace safety laws.

These deaths represent the very worst in the American workplace, acts of intentional wrongdoing or plain indifference that kill about 100 workers each year. They were not accidents. They happened because a boss removed a safety device to speed up production, or because a company ignored explicit safety warnings, or because a worker was denied proper protective gear.

And for years, in news releases and Congressional testimony, senior officials at the federal Occupational Safety and Health Administration have described these cases as intolerable outrages, "horror stories" that demanded the agency's strongest response. They have repeatedly pledged to press wherever possible for criminal charges against those responsible.

These promises have not been kept.

Over a span of two decades, from 1982 to 2002, OSHA investigated 1,242 of these horror stories — instances in which the agency itself concluded that workers had died because of their employer's "willful" safety violations. Yet in 93 percent of those cases, OSHA declined to seek prosecution, an eight-month examination of workplace deaths by The New York Times has found.

What is more, having avoided prosecution once, at least 70 employers willfully violated safety laws again, resulting in scores of additional deaths. Even these repeat violators were rarely prosecuted.

OSHA's reluctance to seek prosecution, The Times found, persisted even when employers had been cited before for the very same safety violation. It persisted even when the violations caused multiple deaths, or when the victims were teenagers. And it persisted even where reviews by administrative judges found abundant proof of willful wrongdoing.

Behind that reluctance, current and former OSHA officials say, is a bureaucracy that works at every level to thwart criminal referrals. They described a bureaucracy that fails to reward, and sometimes penalizes, those who push too hard for prosecution, where aggressive enforcement is suffocated by endless layers of review, where victims' families are frozen out but companies adeptly work the rules in their favor.

This is of a piece with all of the other anti-worker moves our government has sponsored in the last quarter century. The Department of Labor doesn't prosecute violations of the labor laws, Congress and Bush are trying to roll back overtime protections and the administration's "Ownership Society" initiative is something I deconstructed over the weekend. We have arrived at the point where there is a virtually one-to-one correspondence between the interests of the government and the Chamber of Commerce.

Jordan Barab's weblog, Confined Spaces, covers labor, politics and workplace safety about as comprehensively as any one person can. If you are unfamiliar with the dangers of the workplace, his site will be a revelation, and frightening. The amount of protection you, as a worker, have in your workplace is next to none. Whether the issue is repetative motion injuries, or danger of death, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration is not your friend. Next year is an election year and this is something worth thinking about. If you are not getting a copy of this Times article into the hands of your Congresscritters with a letter demanding something be done, who do you think is going to do it?

Quiet Diplomacy

It turns out that there was a country that could deliver WMD's to Europe in 45 minutes, that was developing nuclear weapons and that had actually killed Americans and Brits in the skies over Lockerbie, Scotland.

The historic agreement with Libya, only days after the capture of Saddam Hussein, is a huge boost to Prime Minister Tony Blair’s standing after weeks of escalating pressure over his policies at home and abroad.

But while even his opponents hailed the diplomatic coup, critics of the war demanded to know why Saddam was not given the same chance of negotiation as an alternative to war. Foreign Secretary Jack Straw claimed that suggestion was "absurd".

It emerged last night that Gaddafi was capable of firing a missile into the heart of Europe or Israel, according to defence analysts.

British officials confirmed privately that the arsenal included the feared Nodong missiles, capable of firing a devastating warhead up to 1,700 km. Their potential target range is almost 10 times the limit Gaddafi has now agreed to observe under the deal.

..............

British sources said last night that Gaddafi had not acquired a nuclear weapons capability "but he was close to developing one". In America, White House insiders claimed Libya’s nuclear weapons programme was "much further advanced" than US and British intelligence agencies had thought.

It is believed that the British and American officials who were taken around 10 nuclear sites in the country were shown centrifuges and a uranium-enrichment programme, all vital elements in the production of a nuclear bomb.

The arsenal also included 100 tonnes of mustard gas and other nerve agents that could wreak devastation on thousands of people if fired on Europe or Israel, plus bombs designed to be filled with chemical weapons.

We are also in negotiations with other parts of the Axis of Evial, Iran and Syria. Gee, we were willing to do the diplomatic thing with Saddam when he actually HAD the WMDs we sold him the precursors for, and even sent Rummy to Baghdad to reassure him of our regard. Apparently, Saddam's problem was that he had no WMDs or nuclear program. We only negotiate with the countries that actually have them.

I hope the Dems use this....but they probably won't.

Color Game

Terror Threat Level Raised to Orange

By Jennifer C. Kerr
Associated Press
Sunday, December 21, 2003; 2:15 PM

WASHINGTON, D.C. — The government on Sunday raised the national threat level to orange, the second-highest, saying attacks were possible during the holidays and that threat indicators are "perhaps greater now than at any point" since Sept. 11, 2001.

"Extensive and considerable protections have been or soon will be in place all across the country," Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge said at a hastily arranged news conference at department headquarters.

"Your government will stand at the ready 24 hours a day, seven days a week, to stop terrorism during the holiday season and beyond."

Orange means a high risk of terrorist attack. Since May, the level had been at yellow, or an elevated risk, and in the middle of the five-color scale.

Ridge cited reports that Osama bin-Laden’s terrorist network is trying find holes in U.S. aviation security, and that "extremists abroad" are anticipating attacks that will rival or exceed the scope of the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

The sad reality in which we live is that we have to wonder if this is a purely political tactic to raise W's polling numbers. If, God forbid, there is another attack here, one of the questions that will be asked is whether or not the government had a role in it, for political reasons. And the person who asks that question will need to fear for their safety.

Brit Endorsement

Clare Short was Tony Blair's Secretary for International Development until she resigned in March in protest of Blair's decision to take the UK to war. It is, to say the least, highly unusual for even a former government official to endorse a candidate in a foreign county's election. It's worth reading the entire article, as her analysis of the current world situation and its implications for both American and British politics is spot on (and, no, Iraq had nothing to do with Libya, the time line on that goes back six years.)

A sustainable exit strategy requires a US president who understands that he is unlikely to be able to exit from Iraq or reunite the world in opposition to al-Qa'ida without a settlement of the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. This could bring benefits to all because a just settlement of Israel/Palestine could lead to agreement that all WMD - including Israel's considerable nuclear capacity - should be removed from the region. Such a settlement would provide a real opportunity for democracy and development to spread across the region.

The question is, how will we get to this beneficial solution? I am afraid that the consequences of the errors made by Blair in his handling of the Iraq crisis mean that, as long as he is there, we will have little influence and he will continue to be taken for granted by the US and written off by Europe. But the forces of history won't be stopped, indeed, will probably grow. Thus Iraq is likely to continue to cost American lives and an even larger number of terrible injuries and mental breakdowns - the numbers of which are being kept very quiet. If the Shia join the resistance, the situation will become very much more difficult in the south, and for our own soldiers. And if all of this goes on, the costs will cause further resentment in the US; the $87bn (£54bn), which recently caused trouble with Congress, covered the costs of less than one year in Iraq. Equally, UK expenditure in Iraq, while our public finances are under pressure, could see our public and parliament begin to chafe at the growing costs to our own treasury.

The best scenario would be for Howard Dean to be elected president in 2004 with Wesley Clark as vice-president. The American people would have voted for the fastest possible exit from Iraq and a reversal of the tax cuts to fund a comprehensive health-care system. By then - if the resistance persists - the only way out will be to settle Palestine and to internationalise Iraq.

It's worth remembering that the rest of the world has a stake in this election in a way they never have before, even though they don't get a vote. W's aggravation of terrorism and complete ineffectiveness on the War on Terra makes everyone less safe.

New World Order

Judging from the Sunday papers, the Internet ought to be the Person of the Year.

Where Political Influence Is Only a Keyboard Away

More than ever, the Internet gives people a connection -- and a voice -- in campaigns.
By Matea Gold, Times Staff Writer

NEW YORK — Every morning, before her 5-year-old daughter wakes up, Leah Faerstein sits down at her computer in her East Village apartment and logs onto Democratic presidential candidate Wesley K. Clark's Web site.

A few years ago, Faerstein was politically indifferent and didn't own a computer. But now the stay-at-home mom spends hours a day on Clark's Web log, or blog, munching on chocolate Clark bars and chatting with other aficionados of the former NATO commander.

Recently, she was thrilled to hear Clark use a phrase about democracy that she had suggested on the blog.

"I'm not going to take the credit," said Faerstein, 50. "But I think it's osmosis. There's a back and forth between us and the campaign. I couldn't feel more connected."

Faerstein is one of hundreds of thousands of people who have turned to the Internet this year to participate in national politics, relying on a technology that is playing a central role in the way citizens are experiencing the 2004 presidential campaign.

....

The whole point of the Internet is that it is decentralized and not hierarchical," said Darrell West, a political science professor at Brown University. "Blogs are perfectly democratic. So it could be a challenge to get the troops moving in the same direction."

The Internet seemed tailor-made for the Dean campaign, especially in states like Tennessee that do not hold an important primary. Here, the Web provided the Dean campaign with a vehicle for the growth of a galloping home-grown political movement that requires almost no outside supervision or financing.

"When you don't have money for mailings and fund-raisers and you're outside the democratic power structure, the net is just a wonderful tool to get things rolling," said Mark Naccarato, a documentary filmmaker who is co-chairman in Nashville for Dr. Dean.

"The Internet is just a very efficient way to connect people, replacing the inefficient tool of a phone call," he continued. "What it changes is the ability to organize quickly and efficiently. But you still need old-school shoe-leather campaigning to take it from there."

At The Blogging of the President: 2004, a couple of bloggers comment:

Matthew Stinson comments in a similar vein with [Jeff] Jarvis: "I think blogging and other forms of Internet communication have altered the general dynamics of the campaign, but the campaign blogs, up to this date, have not impressed me very much."

Ed Cone also reacts to Jarvis: "As a debunking of the starry-eyed, campaign blog-as-Woodstock meme, good stuff. Howard Dean and Joe Trippi are trying to WIN AN ELECTION, not run an encounter group. Ditto the other candidates using or about to use the Internet to manage their campaigns. That's the whole point of setting up your own parallel media. But I think Jeff sells short the collaborative possibilities of an Internet campaign."

And I commented to this post: [Everett] Ehrlich's [WaPo] piece is first rate, but let's not fall into the temptation of thinking, just because he's developed a compelling meta-narrative, that it is the only such narrative available. Different parts of the campaign will react to different parts of the campaign story in a number of different ways. What the Internet has allowed the Dean campaign to do is develop an assymetrical campaign, and control communication to the most central parts of the netroots, while giving those same roots a fair amount of autonomy. As a fundraising strategy, this is a new paradigm that fundraisers will be studying for years: the interactive nature allows for a sense of immediacy that is more than a simalcrum of relationship. It is a new kind of a relationship, but it is one, all the same. The blog world is throwing off new social and moral structures and they are evolving as the technology evolves.

I'm curious about what you think. Have you gotten involved with a campaign this year through the Internet? What is your experience with the blogosphere?

Broken but not Bought

Medical evacuations from Iraq near 11,000

By Mark Benjamin
United Press International
Published 12/19/2003 3:30 PM

WASHINGTON, Dec. 18 (UPI) -- The total number of wounded soldiers and medical evacuations from the war in Iraq is nearing 11,000, according to new Pentagon data provided in response to a request from United Press International.

The military has made 8,581 medical evacuations from Operation Iraqi Freedom for non-hostile causes in addition to the 2,273 wounded -- a total of 10,854, according to the new data. The Pentagon says that 457 troops have died.

The Pentagon's casualty update for Operation Iraqi Freedom listed on its Web site, however, does not reflect thousands of the evacuations.

It is a toll the country has not seen since Vietnam, said Aseneth Blackwell, former national president of Gold Star Wives of America, Inc., a support group for people who lose a spouse from war.

....

According to data released to UPI from the Army Medical Command, the military as of Nov. 30 made 8,581 medical evacuations for bone injuries, surgeries, brain problems, heart illness, mental problems and other non-hostile causes.

But the Pentagon's casualty update as of Dec. 17 on its Web site reported only 364 soldiers as "non-hostile wounded" in addition to reporting that 457 troops have died and 2,273 soldiers have been wounded in action.

....

A veterans' advocate said the Pentagon should report non-hostile incidents as casualties. "They are considered casualties," said Bill Smith, a spokesman at Veterans of Foreign Wars.

In response to a request from UPI about non-hostile incidents, the Army Medical Command this week released data that show 3,843 medical evacuations for "non-battle injuries" and 4,738 for "disease" between March 19 and Nov. 30. Examples of non-battle evacuations were for bone injuries and surgery, the Army said. Examples of disease evacuations include brain, heart, stomach, or mental problems. The evacuations include causes as diverse as dental problems and gynecological issues.

In a related (very related) story, Cursor.org links to a CBS News story (sorry, no direct link, the CBS site crashes my browser) which tells us:

In a CBS report on how wounded U.S. soldiers are being discharged from the military, resulting in a dramatic reduction in their income, the head of Disabled American Veterans complains that "I don't know if it's a clouded secret about who's coming back, who's there, the nature of their disabilities, the nature of their wounds or not but there is not the kind of unfettered access that we used to have at Walter Reed."

I see a pattern here, one which also plays out in the post below: workers, be they soldiers or middle-managers, are simply cost centers to be trimmed to improve the bottom line. Ah, our CEO administration at work. Masking the size of the injured and then discharging wounded troops before they are fully healed to save a few bucks is so morally reprehensible that I'm speechless.

UPDATE: Here's the Truthout link to the CBS story.

Add to the 11,000 already evacuated those who are on sick-call in theater on any given day, and 10% of your force is down. That's enough to render force size ineffective, and explains this:

1st Brigade Sent to Iraq As 'Bridge'
Friday, December 19, 2003; Page A42

The Pentagon has ordered the 1st Brigade of the 82nd Airborne Division to deploy to Iraq in early January, and has informed the division's 3rd Brigade that its current mission in the Iraqi city of Fallujah will be extended by about 60 days to early April, senior military officials said yesterday.

The 3rd Brigade's mission was extended because the unit's replacement, the 81st Armor Brigade from the Washington National Guard, needs two months additional training, the officials said. The 1st Brigade is being sent to Iraq for 120 days, the officials said, to add combat capability and serve as a bridge during the transition between the arrival of the 81st Armor and the departure of the 82nd's 3rd Brigade.

"It's a spike, there's no question about it," one official said of the decision to deploy the 82nd's 1st Brigade in January. There are currently 119,500 Army troops in Iraq, most of whom are scheduled to be replaced by new Army and Marine forces by the end of spring.
-- Vernon Loeb

The Serf Society

David Brooks discloses his membership in the born-with-silver-spoon club while simultaneously revealing that he has completely gone over to the Dark Side.

The Ownership Society

In his State of the Union address, the president will announce measures to foster job creation. In the meantime, he is talking about what he calls the Ownership Society.

This is a bundle of proposals that treat workers as self-reliant pioneers who rise through several employers and careers. To thrive, these pioneers need survival tools. They need to own their own capital reserves, their own retraining programs, their own pensions and their own health insurance.

Administration officials are talking about giving unemployed workers personal re-employment accounts, which they could spend on training, child care, a car, a move to a place with more jobs, or whatever else they think would benefit them.

President Bush has a proposal to combine and simplify the confusing morass of government savings programs and give individuals greater control over how they want to spend their tax-sheltered savings. Administration officials hope, in a second term, to let individuals control part of their Social Security pensions and perhaps even their medical savings accounts.

The Ownership Society idea allows Bush to be centrist and conservative at the same time. It is centrist because it means actively using government to solve problems. In 2000, Bush declared: "I do not believe government is the enemy. But I do not believe government is always the answer. At its best, it can help people find the tools they need to build for themselves. At its best, it gives options, not orders." The Ownership Society platform is designed to update that message for 2004.

But the platform is culturally conservative. Talking with staff, Bush emphasizes that he wants to use these policies to move from an "anything-goes culture" to a "responsibility culture." By giving individuals control of their own retraining, their own savings and their own homes, he hopes to inculcate self-reliance, industriousness and responsibility.

What Brooks is endorsing is government sponsorship for the race to the bottom, codifying trends in employment which have emerged in the last 20 years. This is government-sanctioned freelancing: you don't really think that the government will ever adequately fund this benefit, do you? Who is going to pay for it? You will. Here's the key: could spend on training, child care, a car, a move to a place with more jobs, or whatever else they think would benefit them. If you are unemployed, particularly if you have been for a while, and, particularly if you have children, chances are that you are going to need retraining AND childcare AND an income AND medical insurance AND may need to move. Having a choice between a bunch of inadequately funded benefits is no choice at all.

If Brooks is representing the administration correctly, this represents a final break in the social contract which has been unraveling for a while now. It treats workers as nothing more than fungible widgets and removes from employers any sense of responsibility for the people they employ and the communities in which they live. For some people, freelancing and self-employment are just great, but this is not something which works for everyone. As employment trends have changed in the last generation, the idea of home/community/work as all part of a continuum of "public commons" in which the well-being of each sphere of life enhances the well-being of the others, has been replaced by a Darwinian competition between these spheres of life. 24/7 is now a zero sum game between them.

In this proposal, the Straussian neocons have embraced the social and political philosophy of Thomas Hobbes, placing Hobbesian authoritarianism and government paternalism into the hands of a group of ideologues who believe in oligarchy rather than democracy. Roll that around in the back of your mind for a couple of moments and see if it doesn't chill you.

For all of us who are not billing a couple of hundred bucks an hour for a fifty hour week, this proposal is a disaster. For low wage earners, which is the direction most of us wage slaves are headed, it's an utter calamity. The economic policies, particularly those regarding employment, of the conservative arch which stretches from Ronald Reagan to Bush II, have lead to increasing splits between the upper and lower economic classes, and are squeezing the middle class downward. Paul Krugman's article in the new issue of The Nation documents the shift, which has become particularly pronounced since the mid-'90s:

The other day I found myself reading a leftist rag that made outrageous claims about America. It said that we are becoming a society in which the poor tend to stay poor, no matter how hard they work; in which sons are much more likely to inherit the socioeconomic status of their father than they were a generation ago.

The name of the leftist rag? Business Week, which published an article titled "Waking Up From the American Dream." The article summarizes recent research showing that social mobility in the United States (which was never as high as legend had it) has declined considerably over the past few decades. If you put that research together with other research that shows a drastic increase in income and wealth inequality, you reach an uncomfortable conclusion: America looks more and more like a class-ridden society.
And guess what? Our political leaders are doing everything they can to fortify class inequality, while denouncing anyone who complains--or even points out what is happening--as a practitioner of "class warfare."

Let's talk first about the facts on income distribution. Thirty years ago we were a relatively middle-class nation. It had not always been thus: Gilded Age America was a highly unequal society, and it stayed that way through the 1920s. During the 1930s and '40s, however, America experienced what the economic historians Claudia Goldin and Robert Margo have dubbed the Great Compression: a drastic narrowing of income gaps, probably as a result of New Deal policies. And the new economic order persisted for more than a generation: Strong unions; taxes on inherited wealth, corporate profits and high incomes; close public scrutiny of corporate management--all helped to keep income gaps relatively small. The economy was hardly egalitarian, but a generation ago the gross inequalities of the 1920s seemed very distant.

Now they're back. According to estimates by the economists Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez--confirmed by data from the Congressional Budget Office--between 1973 and 2000 the average real income of the bottom 90 percent of American taxpayers actually fell by 7 percent. Meanwhile, the income of the top 1 percent rose by 148 percent, the income of the top 0.1 percent rose by 343 percent and the income of the top 0.01 percent rose 599 percent. (Those numbers exclude capital gains, so they're not an artifact of the stock-market bubble.) The distribution of income in the United States has gone right back to Gilded Age levels of inequality.

"The Ownership Society" is another one of those Orwellian misnomers the Bush administration is so fond of. If implemented, it would break the relationship between capitalists and workers which implied that each had a stake in the well-being of the other, and would make it harder for workers to own anything other than their skins. It would also place the economic health of the worker firmly in the hands of Hobbes's authoritarian government. This is the most frightening, regressive labor and economic policy to come along in generations.

UPDATE: via Nathan Newman, a link to The American Prospect's special report on Low Wage America, which examines causes and possible cures for an economy which is growing disproportionately in low wage jobs. As always, Nathan is one-stop shopping for labor and economic/employment policy news.

UPDATE 2: Big Media Matt weighs in on the tax implications (hint: major give away for the wealthy) and Kevin Drum adds some thoughts on the meaning of cutting out the supports of the social safety net. Over at Suburban Guerrilla, Susan tells us that this proposal will turn us into a nation of option traders where one wrong bet will wipe you out. Scroll up to see what it's like to be an adult without health insurance.

String too short to be saved

Gut Yontif, Shabbat Shalom, Happy Chanukkah

Some odds and ends before I put the blog (and myself) to bed.

Washingtonian Magazine is required reading in this town if you want to keep up on who's up and where. Here is their list of what insider Dems are giving to which candidates. It's not a true blog, so you have to scroll to the end of the column, and read the interesting news about what's what at the WaPo and why Dan Snyder is a terrible (don't get me started) NFL owner. The donor piece is at the end.

Jacques Chirac has proposed a law for France which would prevent public school students and hospital patients from wearing religious clothing, such as the hijab or the yarmulke, although small and tasteful jewelry such as a cross, Star of David or Hand of Fatima would be allowed. France's 1958 "Fifth Republic" constitution has as its preamble The Declaration of the Rights of Man and the Citizen (hint: they get it from Jefferson and Madison) as part of constitutional law. Chirac's proposed law violates Articles 1-4, 10, 11 and 18 of the Declaration. I guess they'll work it all out in conference committee. This is a very hot topic across Europe and my brief review of the legal issues doesn't do the social issues justice. Readers with more experience of France are free to educate all of us in Comments. This is an excellent case for a discussion of the non-establishment clause and right of free expression clauses of the First Amendment of our Constitution.

My interfaith discussion email group has been kicking this one around for a couple of days and the conversation has been pretty heated.

A blogger I've never heard of before linked to my potato pancakes piece and offers a highly garlicked but low-fat alternative for Chanukka. I'm cooking this Saturday night. Go meet Red Ted, he's full of all sort of wonderful ideas, a Jewish historian in New Jersey. And, man, does he cook!!

I'll be away for most of the day on Saturday. My chapter of Lay Cistercians meets one Saturday a month, and today is it. I'll be back in the evening.

Fair Trade

Trade pact a gamble for Bush
The US government risks alienating crucial voters by agreeing to the new Cafta deal, reports David Teather

Friday December 19, 2003

The Bush administration this week pressed ahead with its commitment to open up borders for free trade when it agreed a deal with four Central American countries.

In doing so the US government plunged itself into further controversy at home with an issue that could become crucial in next year's presidential elections.

The agreement with El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala will strip away all tariffs on industrial goods over the next ten years and phase out protection of agricultural products over the next 20 years.

The US government hopes that Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic will join at a later date. The ultimate aim is to have free trade across the Americas.

....

Representatives from the sugar and textiles industries in the US are particularly worried about the latest deal.

Richard Gephardt, a presidential hopeful, has long fought trade liberalisation and warned that Cafta would cost thousands of American jobs. The agreement, he said, was "selling out American workers".

Currently the trade between the US and the four Cafta countries is valued at $15.4bn.
The states that rely on manufacturing have seen little evidence of the resurgent American economy. The establishment of Cafta, whether it will be directly responsible for job losses or not, will only further heighten fears. For the Bush administration that is not good news. Many of the regions affected are crucial swing states

Nathan Newman has all the details on Costa Rica's loud objections to this trade deal, along with this advice:

This deal is the blueprint for other trade negotiations. All progressives need to organize like hell to defeat it.

Have We Found the Receipts?

Not all of the SCLM has gone to sleep, even if they look somnolent to us most of the time. But sometime you have to wade pretty deep into the "A" section to find signs of life. Dana Priest and Vernon Loeb of the WaPo return to a story the blogosphere has been holding on to with the tenacity of a terrier.

Rumsfeld Visited Baghdad in 1984 to Reassure Iraqis, Documents Show

Trip Followed Criticism Of Chemical Arms' Use
By Dana Priest
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, December 19, 2003; Page A42

Donald H. Rumsfeld went to Baghdad in March 1984 with instructions to deliver a private message about weapons of mass destruction: that the United States' public criticism of Iraq for using chemical weapons would not derail Washington's attempts to forge a better relationship, according to newly declassified documents.

Rumsfeld, then President Ronald Reagan's special Middle East envoy, was urged to tell Iraqi Foreign Minister Tariq Aziz that the U.S. statement on chemical weapons, or CW, "was made strictly out of our strong opposition to the use of lethal and incapacitating CW, wherever it occurs," according to a cable to Rumsfeld from then-Secretary of State George P. Shultz.

The statement, the cable said, was not intended to imply a shift in policy, and the U.S. desire "to improve bilateral relations, at a pace of Iraq's choosing," remained "undiminished." "This message bears reinforcing during your discussions."

The documents, obtained under the Freedom of Information
Act by the nonprofit National Security Archive, provide new, behind-the-scenes details of U.S. efforts to court Iraq as an ally even as it used chemical weapons in its war with Iran.

An earlier trip by Rumsfeld to Baghdad, in December 1983, has been widely reported as having helped persuade Iraq to resume diplomatic ties with the United States. An explicit purpose of Rumsfeld's return trip in March 1984, the once-secret documents reveal for the first time, was to ease the strain created by a U.S. condemnation of chemical weapons.
....

Last year, the Bush administration cited its belief that Iraq had and would use weapons of mass destruction -- including chemical, biological and nuclear devices -- as the principal reason for going to war.

But throughout 1980s, while Iraq was fighting a prolonged war with Iran, the United States saw Hussein's government as an important ally and bulwark against the militant Shiite extremism seen in the 1979 revolution in Iran. Washington worried that the Iranian example threatened to destabilize friendly monarchies in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Jordan.

Publicly, the United States maintained neutrality during the eight-year Iran-Iraq war, which began in 1980.

Privately, however, the administrations of Reagan and George H.W. Bush sold military goods to Iraq, including poisonous chemicals and deadly biological agents, worked to stop the flow of weapons to Iran, and undertook discreet diplomatic initiatives, such as the two Rumsfeld trips to Baghdad, to improve relations with Hussein.

That Dana, what a gift for understatement.

Around 9/11

The ex-governor of my state, who managed to send it into a budgetary tailspin, was appointed chair of a commission overseeing the development of Homeland Security. He a Repub but not an ideologue. The final report of the commission was delivered last week and it is pretty scathing. Are we safer now than we were on Sept. 11?

No.

From the CSM story.

Report: Danger of growing complacence in US about terrorism
Federal commission cites continuing problems with intelligence sharing, lack of 'clear strategic guidance' from White House.
By Tom Regan |

US intelligence agencies are still reluctant to share information with each other. The Bush administration hasn't put forth "a clear strategic guidance" about the definition of homeland security, and objectives of preparedness. While the US has made progress in "beefing up" its defenses against terrorism, momentum for a comprehensive, national homeland security strategy appears to have diminished. The result could be a patch quilt of different rules and regulation in each state about how to deal with issues like weapons of mass destruction, terrorism and national emergencies like 9/11, and that Americans might think the US is more prepared for another major terrorist attack than it really is.

These findings are detailed in a report by the "Advisory Panel to Assess Domestic Response Capabilities for Terrorism Involving Weapons of Mass Destruction." The federal commission chaired by former Virginia governor James Gillmore (current chair of the Republican Party) will disband next year.

"The panel has serious concern about the current state of homeland security efforts along the full spectrum from awareness to recovery," the report states. "Efforts by the government may provide the perception of enhanced security that causes the nation to become complacent about the many critical actions still required."

GovEx.com also reports that the panel recommended that President Bush create an independent, bipartisan oversight board to provide advice on security efforts, such as the Patriot Act, that may impact civil liberties. The freedom guaranteed by the First Amendment could be violated by increased reliance on sophisticated technology that has "vast potential to invade personal privacy," according to the commission's statement.

Bottom line: Tom Kean's 9/11-what-went-wrong commission is holding hearings next month ( here is the climb-down from the CBS Evening News story earlier this week, somebody got sloppy,) and we already know a fair amount from open sources what screw ups were happening and at what levels. Gillmore's commission report shows that the screw ups go on: all that money Bush promised to first responders? Where is it? Where is the planning for chem-bio? Nothing much has changed since September 10, in spite of all the rot we hear about how "everything is different after September 11."

UPDATE: Governor Gillmore isn't the only one who notices that preparedness isn't up to snuff.

Terrorism Drills Showed Lack of Preparedness, Report Says

Terrorism Drills Showed Lack of Preparedness, Report Says
By PHILIP SHENON

Published: December 19, 2003

WASHINGTON, Dec. 18 — A classified Bush administration report has found that the largest counterterrorism exercise conducted by the federal government since the Sept. 11 attacks was marred by communications problems, serious shortages of medical supplies and hospital rooms and confusion over where the residue of a radiological attack would spread, administration officials said on Thursday.

The five-day exercise last May in Chicago and Seattle, known as Topoff 2, tested the response of federal agencies and local governments to nearly simultaneous terrorist attacks using biological agents and a so-called dirty bomb, a crude radiological device.

Administration officials said they were disturbed by the report's suggestion that a continuing lack of preparedness by federal and local governments would result in unnecessary deaths in the event of a major terrorist attack. But they insisted that many of the communications and logistical problems identified in the exercise had been corrected in the seven months since the $16 million exercise was conducted.

A brief, unclassified summary of the report, which is expected to be made public on Friday and was made available to The New York Times in advance, cited "critical" problems in Seattle in trying to determine where plumes of radiological contamination from a simulated dirty bomb in the city had spread. As a result, officials said, rescue teams were uncertain for hours where they could travel without risking radiation poisoning.

Sing Out, Marie!

The Nader Exploratory Committee has an online survey to help him make up his mind. Do you have an opinion you'd like to express? You know what to do...

You say Potato, I say Potahtoh

I'm pulling this back up onto the top of the page for a couple of reasons: I'm looking for more recipes, and I'm going to put the bread recipes, Challah and bagels up, sometime later Friday; and because this is about the last day that a person can send out resumes before the holiday. Somebody tell Matt Yglesias that if he wants New York bagels, he's going to have to make them himself and I've got the goods. But Friday is going to be busy. I've got ten resumes to send out on Friday, and a bunch of documents to create for the Lay Cistercians before our meeting on Saturday, so I won't be around much. But I'm still hunting recipes. Hannukah begins Friday night, and I'm going to experiment with potatoes this year and try that Yukon Gold thing. They make fabulous fries. If you have potato recommendations, send them. I've been using your basic Maine spud for years, this year is a branching out.

I'm still hoping for employment in the New Year. If you enjoy this website, the Paypal link is up top. This computer is on its last legs, and your donation will go to a better machine. We are nearly there.

And while you are thinking about that, scroll below and enjoy some good food and some partisan politics. From the left side of the potato.

Our menus are our history. We keep making beef stroganoff because we like it, but also because we had some wonderful experiences with friends and family over it. The Thanksgiving turkey is as much about family history as cuisine.

Over the next few weeks, the midwinter holidays of Judaism, Christianity, Hinduism and Buddhism, food and tradition will be part of the fare at the Bump. You are invited to share recipes and memories in comments, be generous with both and teach us to cook some new things as we lovingly consider the memory you shared.

Hannukah, the Festival of Lights for Jews, begins this Friday at sundown.

In the reign of Antiochus Epiphanes of Syria, about 175-163, BCE, an extended family of Jews lead by Mattathias, the high priest of the Temple in Jerusalem, staged a revolt against the Syrians in an attempt to win freedom for this people who had known little but foreign oppression and slavery in all their history. Like other foreign rulers, the Syrians made the Jews worship their gods, and if you know anything at all about Jews, their God was a singularity in the Ancient Near East and this blasphemy was an assault on their dignity as a people. Mattathias' revolt had no chance, but an insurgency developed led by his son, Judas Maccabeus, after the father's death. They were able to take and hold Jerusalem, and wanted to re-consecrate the Temple, which had been desecrated by the invaders. In the Temple law of the Torah, the lamp which stands watch over the Torah in the sanctuary of the Temple (and in synagogues today) must be lit continuously while the sacred scroll is residing in the Ark. As the Maccabees were re-dedicating the temple, they discovered that there was only enough oil for one day, the oil jars having been smashed by the invaders. It would take eight days to press more.

And then, as the sacred texts like to tell us, a miracle ocurred. The single jar of oil burned for eight days. The Festival of Lights was born to memorialize and celebrate this wonder. Hannukah is not the Jewish Christmas, it occupies a very different place in the Jewish liturgical calendar than that foundational Christian holiday, but Jews celebrate it in ways which are traditional within their families. It is a "home" holiday, rather than a liturgical one. Exchanges of gifts are traditional in many homes for the eight days of the holiday, as are parties, traditional songs, toys and games. Each night, a candle is light in the family's menorah to commemorate this miracle of lights.

I was introduced to Judaism (and the foods) by a family who remain very close to me to this day. My "Jewish Mother" taught me to make latkes, the potato pancakes which are traditional in Ashkenazic Jewish homes for this holiday. I love them. Part of the tradition is to be very generous with oil when frying, since the holiday is based in a surprise abundance of oil.

Broadly speaking, there are two cultural branches of Judaism in the United States (this is very broad...): the Ashkenazim, who came from Russia, Poland, the Baltics, Germany and through the Diaspora, England. Their common language at the time of immigration was Yiddish, a hodge-podge macaronic language which includes elements of Hebrew, German, Polish and Russian; Sephardic Jews came from the Jewish Diaspora around the Mediterannean basin and have roots in Spain, North Africa and the Near East. Their common language at the time of immigration was/is Sephardic, a macaronic language which emphasizes elements of Spanish, Hebrew and the Morrocan dialect of Arabic. Both languages are written in Hebrew script, but a Sephardic speaker from Morroco isn't going to understand a Yiddish speaker from Minsk without a lot of hand and feet pointing.

But both will celebrate Hannukah, and the Ashkenaz will be eating potato pancakes, and so will I. These things are good. Here's my friend's recipe. I'm being generous with calling it a recipe, I'm trying to quantify things she showed me, and I still measure by eye and handful.

For 6-8, depending on appetites.

6 grated medium potatoes
1 small onion, grated (don't use the food processor, they turn to mush)
2 beaten eggs
2 tablespoons of flour
2 tablespoons baking POWDER (not soda)
1 teaspoon salt
Experiment with: cinnamon and allspice OR pepper and a little lemon zest, more on this later
A half cup oil, peanut works better than olive because the temperature is pretty hot

Combine everything but the oil and mix well. Heat half the oil in a skillet or fryer. Using a large spoon, utility size, ease a pancake-sized piece of the batter into the hot oil. Don't let it get too thick or the outside will burn before the center cooks. These are not road-house buckwheat pancakes, but rather smaller and more delicate things. Add more oil if needed, but let the oil completely reheat before adding more batter. As soon as the center of the pancakes just begins to brown, remove and drain. Don't let the edges get black, the center of each surface should just be lightly brown, with the color deepening to the edges. Use the edge of a paper towel to remove broken off pieces before they burn and make the oil taste burned.

Serve these hot, if you are making the cinnamon and allspice ones, apple sauce is the traditional topping. The savory lemon and pepper ones should be served with sour cream. With a soup or a salad, this is a meal. We'll deal with the breads later in the week.

Elayne Riggs of Pen-Elayne on the Web asked in Comments if we'd like her recipe. I responded by email, Bring it On, so I hope she will add to my knowledge before the weekend. This is deceptively simple food, attention to detail matters a lot more than complicated ingrediants. And, if you've never had a potato pancake before, you'll be speaking "latkes" in no time. Hearty, simple food for cold weather.

Doing the Wave

My ear went off at me when I was paying half-attention to the PBS Newshour. Jim Lehrer, a Texan, was reading the big news for today, that both the 2nd and 9th Circuit appellate courts refused to let the President decide all by himself whether or not due process, a right under the 14th Amendment for American citizens, and habeus corpus could be suspended on the President's say so, as well as considering whether or not the President could go outside the Constitution and the Geneva Accords to create a whole new category of person, "enemy non-combatent" which was afforded neither the protections of Geneva or of the Constitution, which even an illegal immigrant gets. Guess what? The president, now reduced to the lower case as befits his occupational, rather than regal status, lost.

One of the cases involved American citizen and alleged dirty bomber Jose Padilla, who has been held in a Navy brig in South Carolina, incommunicado and without counsel, for going on two years, and that's a human rights horror. This will end up in the Supreme Court, as will the "oft-reversed" 9th District case, but what hit my ear (all of this news has been much covered by other bloggers, including the entire legal blog community, so I won't treat it here). Jim Lehra, from Texas, said, "Padilia." He said it once, twice, three times. Did I mention that he's from Texas, where even the Andover and Yale educated former Governor can stumble his way through basic Spanish? I don't speak any Spanish, I mean I've never studied it, but I buy groceries at Mercado Maria down the street because she has the best queso fresco in the neighborhood. She doesn't have any English, so I have to do what I can with my little Spanish and a smile. We manage, she slices it fresh for me, just the amount I ask for, and I never get overcharged. Even I know that the guy's name isn't "Padilia."

There is a big demographic shift going on in this country which the media elites haven't caught yet, although those candidates who can speak Spanish have taken a shot at it (Bush is as incoherent in Spanish as English, even with scripted moments, and who knew that people-powered Howard had that mojo en espagnol, must have got it working in Spanish Harlem.)

In the new issue of The Nation, Joe Velasquez and Steve Cobble lay out the argument we first aired here a couple of weeks ago that the electoral strategy and map have undergone important changes in the last ten years that can work for the Ds, and, more importantly, for Dean.

Where do these Latinos live? More to the point for the next presidential election, where do these Latinos live that makes a potential difference in the Electoral College? They live in four key states in the desert Southwest with huge and growing Latino populations. In 2004 these four states combined will cast twenty-nine electoral votes, four more than in 2000 and more than Florida casts. And Latino voters in these four states could be united and inspired by an economic agenda that includes decent wages, retirement security, reining in corporate corruption, rebuilding public schools, labor rights and healthcare.

§ New Mexico was a blue state surrounded by red in 2000. The race was essentially a dead heat. New Mexico now has aggressive Latino Democratic Governor Bill Richardson, who is mobilizing hard to increase the power of the Latino vote nationwide.
§ Nevada, where Al Gore fell short of the White House by less than 22,000 votes out of more than 600,000 cast, essentially doubled its Latino share of the population in only ten years. (In 1990, Nevada was 10.4 percent Latino; by 2000, 19.7 percent.) And since then, George W. Bush has signed off on the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste dump. Las Vegas also has a strong labor movement.

§ Arizona, which Bill Clinton won in 1996 and Al Gore lost by less than 100,000 votes (out of more than 1.5 million cast), now has a woman Democratic governor. Arizona is already one-quarter Latino, and according to the census, of the more than 325,000 people added to the state between April 2000 and July 2002 (the latest estimate), more than half (181,000) were Latinos.

§ Colorado is a state that Bill Clinton carried in 1992 and lost by only 20,000 votes in 1996. Although Bush won the state by 9 percentage points in 2000, his winning percentage was only 51 percent, and his environmental sins combined with a growing Latino vote could make this state much closer next time.

Then there is the secret weapon--non-Cuban Latinos in Florida. The Sunshine State is now 17 percent Latino, and with each passing day the conservative Cuban-American vote loses market share while the more progressive non-Cuban-American Latino vote grows by leaps and bounds. Cuban-Americans took credit for delivering Florida to Bush in 2000, giving him 80-85 percent of their vote. Given their deep-seated hatred of Castro and their loyalty to Governor Jeb Bush, this percentage is unlikely to change much in 2004 (though young Cuban-Americans are much less fixated on Castro than their elders). What is overlooked, though, is that non-Cuban-American Latinos voted heavily for Al Gore--actually, combined with the huge African-American turnout in 2000, Latinos won Florida for Gore! Most Cuban-Americans are already registered to vote, but thousands and thousands of non-Cuban-American Latinos are not, a fact the Southwest Voter Registration and Education Project has wisely recognized.

Finally, when considering the Latino vote, reflect on this potentially empowering statistic: There are as many unregistered Latinos who are American citizens as there were Latino voters in 2000--more than 5.5 million. These potential voters are not likely Bush voters, despite Republican rhetoric; they cry out for mobilization, for registration, for contact on issues they care about, for GOTV (get out the vote).

There is an important lesson in this article, and also one in my lead-in. I live in one of the most white-bread Northern Virginia 'burbs of DC, and across the street from Mercado Maria is one the best Salvadoran restaurants in the area, which is across the parking lot from this fantastic Chilean chicken place. My little corner of this 'burb is the low income corner, and we have a lot of immigrants from the Four Corners of the Earth, most of whom, like me, can't afford to eat in these places, but the Hispanic tsunami is making itself felt even in white-bread crossroads like this one. Maria, at the Mercado, is making a go of it on limited English. Hmmm....

Look! Michael Jackson!

If we didn't live in CNNFauxMSGOPBizarro World, the look of abject terror in Tucker Carlson's eyes every night as he feeds his live reports from Baghdad to CNN's Crossfire and Anderson Cooper's 360 would tell us the story to which we should be paying attention. For those of you who wish I was paying more attention to the "inside baseball" campaign stuff, well, there are other places you can go for that. The fact of the matter is that George W. Bush has tied the success or failure of his presidency to the War on Terra and the transformation of Iraq. The fact that the newsmedia, and therefore the public, aren't paying attention yet doesn't change the fact that the situation in Iraq is sliding south rather quickly. The only thing which will catch the public's attention, for now, are mass casualty situations, which the guerrillas have demonstrated that they are quite capable of delivering.

William Pfaff, who covers the ME for the International Herald Tribune, has consistently been one of the most insightful writers anywhere about Iraq and the Gulf region in general. His Op-Ed this morning is a must read.

William Pfaff: Saddam's capture bodes ill for Bush's re-election

Until now, the most important Shiite leaders have remained, objectively, allies, or at least neutrals, in Washington's effort to control the country. .They now will become active players in the emerging political power struggle. Since they can bring millions into the streets, as demonstrators or as fighters, practicing a version of Islam with a powerful emotional component of suicidal self-sacrifice, they are potentially a more important force than Saddam could ever have mobilized as underground leader or as martyr. .

The minority Sunni community, which had dominated Iraq since the time of the Ottoman Empire, has more urgent reason than ever to fight to regain power and privilege. .A new government might be a federation in which the communities - Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish, but also Turkmen, Christians of several denominations and others - coexist on representative and more or less democratic terms. .The United States might prefer this solution, at least in principle, but would also probably expect (or be needed) to remain in Iraq in order to maintain the balance. A continued American presence would run into the obstacle of Iraqi nationalism, which this war has inflamed, and rob the Shiites of the dominant political role.

.A second possibility is restored centralized and probably authoritarian government, quite possibly with the better-educated Sunni community back on top. Americans are accustomed to dealing with this kind of government in the Arab world. Nationalism and sectarian interests again are the obstacles. .Shiite majority rule would incorporate a powerful bias toward theocratic government of the Iranian kind, which is what Washington does not want.

.On the other hand, there is a limit on what the United States can do, short of continued direct rule. The June departure is supposed to end with a sovereign Iraq on its way to democracy, although how this desirable end is to be accomplished I do not know. .

The ever-valuable trio of Strobel, Landay and Galloway at Knight Ridder reported yesterday:

"Clearly, CPA is behind schedule on the accelerated timeline for handing over to the Iraqis," said one senior official.

"Jerry Bremer has put us on standby, warning that he is going to need 1,000 additional people. We are waiting to hear precisely what he needs," the official said.

He and others spoke on condition of anonymity because the request hasn't been made public and is the subject of intense debate, and because the administration's public posture is more optimistic.

Another top official said Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld is resisting Bremer's request, arguing that the CPA should be slimming down, not beefing up, in anticipation of the sovereignty handover.

"Rummy tells me downgrade, and I need more," a State Department official quoted Bremer as telling Secretary of State Colin Powell in recent weeks.

Bremer has asked for experts in running elections and finance, as well as people with expertise in telecommunications, this official said.

Note that the guts of this story are all SOAs--the whole thing is a leak. Is this a cry for help from the CPA? State? Both? In reality, another 1,000 specialists locked up in the Palace in the Green Zone isn't going to do anybody any good. Another 100,000 troops might help, although by the standard measures of troops/support staff/population, in excess of 300,000 peacekeepers would be needed in theater in order to secure the country. That ain't going to happen.

By the way, Tucker Carlson's stock has gone up in my portfolio. He doesn't have to be doing what he is doing this week. The fear on his face each night is not unreasonable, not a fantasy, not made up. He's in the middle of a war zone. He's got more guts than I do.

Are We Safer After Saddam?

My,my. We got Saddam, doesn't that mean we won the war on terror?

U.S. Urges Citizens to Leave Saudi Arabia

By BARRY SCHWEID

WASHINGTON (AP) - Nonessential American diplomats and the families of all U.S. officials in Saudi Arabia should leave, the State Department said Wednesday, stepping up its warnings about risks in the country.

Private U.S. citizens should consider leaving as well, the department said. And Americans making plans to go to Saudi Arabia were advised to defer any such travel in light of "the potential for further terrorist activities."

The departure of U.S. officials and family members was not ordered, but was voluntary. Expenses were to be paid by the U.S. government.

Americans who travel to Saudi Arabia or remain there despite the warning were told to register with the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh or the consulates in Jeddah and Dhahran so arrangements can be made to keep them up to date.

"The U.S. government continues to receive indications of terrorist threats aimed at American and Western interests," the department said. This includes the targeting of transportation, the statement said.
"American citizens in Saudi Arabia should remain vigilant, particularly in public places associated with the Western community," the department said.

No single specific threat or piece of intelligence triggered the department's action, said a U.S. counterterrorism official, speaking on condition of anonymity. Instead,the decision was based on a review of the entire terrorism picture in the kingdom.

U.S. officials say the top al-Qaida figure in Saudi Arabia is Abdulaziz Issa Abdul-Mohsin al-Moqrin, also known as Abu Hazim. He took over when Yousif Salih Fahad Al-Ayeeri - "Swift Sword" - was killed in a shootout last May.

There are some 200 to 300 nonessential U.S. officials and family members in Saudi Arabia, and some 30,000 U.S. citizens in all.

Notice that families and non-essential government officials will have their expenses paid, but soldiers on a two week home leave have to pay their own way home from Baltimore-Washington International. For two weeks in 12+ month tour.

And the President got a bump in the polls this week. I guess people must think everything is going very well.

UPDATE, 12/18: Both Italy and Poland have gone to the highest level of alert. This is the first such alert for Poland. The Italians began ramping up their internal security after their headquarters in Iraq were bombed last month, resulting in the deaths of 16 soldiers. Such monuments as the Leaning Tower of Pisa and the Vatican are receiving much greater security as we move into the Christmas season. The security clamp-down at the Vatican will be particularly onerous, as such pilgrimage sites as St. Peter's Square will be closed after dark.

Another Fine Mess

Swopa and Steve Gilliard are both covering an AP story which moved late this afternoon on the brutal suppresion of the city of Samarra, scene of an ambush, or something--there are many contradictory stories--ten days ago. Their commentaries are worth your time: at the rate we are making enemies in Iraq, all the TV yack about the interrogation of Saddam doesn't mean spit.

The transcript isn't up yet, but Tucker Carlson's report from Baghdad on CNN this afternoon indicated that, outside the Green Zone, the city is Mogadishu, with constant firefights and explosions. Carlson reports that there is little military presence outside the Green Zone, so the firefights are competing gangs or factions. He spoke today with somebody in the military high enough up to have an opinion who offered that the Army has two or three weeks to get a handle on the security situation. This is a judgement offered by everyone from Anthony Cordesman at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (link is to the homepage, scroll down to Cordesman's reports, which are in .pdf format; the most recent is Dec. 4) to Joe Galloway at Knight Ridder.

Rummy plans to hand this mess over to Powell and the State Department on July 1. I wish all parties luck, since State was cut completely out of the post-war planning. Once Sistani and the Shi'a have decided which way the wind is blowing, they will make their move, particularly if the Sunni's, who now have nothing to lose, harden their resistance. The Sunni's enjoyed power and privilege all out of proportion in the population and they don't have Saddam around any more to preserve it for them. Shi'a resentments have been building for decades, and now they have a shot at majority status. Mix well.

Here in Washington, we may be treated to open warfare between DoD and State. Is this any way to run an empire?

Safire's Freedom

Damn. I'm going to have to start reading Bill Safire again.

Safire takes on Bush administration secrecy, particularly the Cheney energy task force.

<The principle of the thing is wrong. Of course the president's cabinet and staff should be able to offer reasonable confidentiality to outsiders in return for candid advice. But when it comes to domestic legislation and not sensitive national-security affairs, the names and the advice of outside consultants and lobbyists should be discoverable according to law.

How's this for a practical principle: don't use a sledgehammer to swat a gnat. The Supreme Court, courageously and at some cost, did its bit for the Bush administration's electoral legitimacy. It should not now be called upon at re-election time to erect a high barrier to finding out who is advising whom about the public's business behind closed doors.

Beyond this case, even when it comes to federal officials, the argument that only secrecy ensures candor is specious. Presidents record and blab; speechwriters remember and tell all; most advisers want their "private" advice to become known. When, in a memoir, I protected a colleague by not mentioning his unpopular advice in an Oval Office meeting, he objected furiously to having been left out of history.

If "freedom" is the word Bush and Cheney want as the hallmark of their administration, they should begin with freedom of information.

Earlier in the piece, Safire quotes an SAO (senior administration official) as saying that there is nothing sinister in the administration's desire to hold infomation back from the public, it's the principle of executive privilege they seek to protect. I have my doubts and wouldn't trust this White House any further than I can throw it. And I throw like a girl.

Posted by Melanie at 04:50 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

Voices on the Ground

One of the things about the whole blogging phenomenon which I have found so fascinating is the eruption (that IS the right word) of Baghdadi bloggers over the last three months. When I re-do the blogroll, I'll have to put in a separate section for the Iraqi blogs.

If you've been following these writers, you know that there is a wide diversity of opinion and experience among the Iraqis. Zeyad at Healing Iraq has been among the most unabashedly pro-American. Power has been out in Baghdad a lot since the capture of Saddam, so I've been waiting for the Iraq bloggers to sign on and register their reactions. For thoughtful Iraqis, and these bloggers are all that, this was probably not an unusual reaction:

I still haven't been able to get rid of this deep sadness that has overcome me the last two days. People have been emailing asking me to explain. I wish I could, but I simply can't.

After going through the comments today I had some more thoughts. If you had lived all your life ruled by a tough dictator elevated to the level of a god and then suddenly without warning watched that dictator displayed to the public on tv as a 'man', you probably would have related with my position.

The images were shocking. I couldn't make myself believe this was the same Saddam that slaughtered hundreds of thousands and plundered my country's wealth for decades. The humiliation I experienced was not out of nationalistic pride or Islamic notions of superiority or anything like that as some readers suggested. It was out of a feeling of impotence and helplessness. This was just one old disturbed man yet the whole country couldn't dispose of him. We needed a superpower from the other side of the ocean to come here and 'get him' for us. I was really confused that day I went out and almost got myself killed by those Fedayeen and angry teenagers in the Adhamiya district.

Rachel and Ali explained the Stockholm Syndrome in the comments section. I haven't heard about it before, but it did help me understand my contradicting feelings. I didn't want to see him humiliated as much as I loathed him. And that is why I was dissapointed with myself. I want to see him sit in an Iraqi court and explain himself to Iraqis. I want to hear him apologize to Iraqis. It won't help the dead, but I want to hear it anyway. He must be handed over to Iraqis. I don't care about legitimacy. He must be tried publicly in an Iraqi civil court by Iraqi judges. The rest of the Arab dictators should see it and learn from it.

And I'm still wondering why? Why did he have to put himself into this? Why did he have to destroy Iraq? What did he gain from all of this?

Zeyad has comments, and I think some good wishes from the States wouldn't hurt.

Let the Eagle...

Gotta love the consistency of the "law and order" types.

FEC Fines Ashcroft's Senate Bid For Breach
By Thomas B. Edsall and Walter Pincus Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, December 17, 2003; Page A01

The Federal Election Commission has determined that Attorney General John D. Ashcroft's unsuccessful 2000 Senate reelection campaign violated election laws by accepting $110,000 in illegal contributions from a committee Ashcroft had established to explore running for president.

In documents released yesterday by the FEC, Garrett M. Lott, treasurer for the two Ashcroft committees, the Spirit of America PAC and Ashcroft 2000, agreed to pay a $37,000 fine for at least four violations of federal campaign law. Lott agreed "not to contest" the charges.

"Spirit of America PAC and Ashcroft 2000, respectively, violated the [law] by making and receiving this excessive contribution. Additionally, Spirit of America PAC and Ashcroft 2000, respectively, violated the [law] by failing to disclose the making or receipt of the excessive contribution," the FEC declared in a news release.

Under the law, the Spirit of America PAC was allowed to give the Ashcroft 2000 committee only $5,000 for the primary and $5,000 for the general election, which it did. The commission found that the Spirit of America PAC far exceeded these limits by illegally transferring to the Ashcroft 2000 committee $110,000 derived from the rental of its donors list.

The FEC vote to fine the Ashcroft committee was 5 to 1, and the one dissenter sought harsher penalties and tougher findings.

The lone dissenter complained that this was a slap on the wrist and that this violation of election laws was so egregious as to warrant a more serious penalty. Works for me.

Wholly Joe Loserman

I just caught a clip of Lieberman's latest outrage, repeated today at a campaign event, on the Newshour. Up until last weekend, I thought of myself as a yellow dog Democrat, and Anybody But Bush. That has changed. If VP Cheney decides, for whatever reason, that he "needs to spend more time with his family" rather than stand for re-election, Joseph Lieberman should be Bush's running mate. Here's CNN's version:

And Lieberman said that if Dean doesn't think Americans are safer with Hussein in custody, "he has climbed into his own spider hole of denial."

What's Governor Dean denying, Senator? That Saddam was any kind of a threat to the US? Check. That he had any WMD's? Check. That he had anything to do with 9/11 and Osama? Check.

What reality is it that you are living in, Senator? We now know that, at least since the last contretemps in 1998, that Saddam was militarily weak and no longer even a threat to his neighbors, much less to us, thank to the hammer of Desert Fox bombing laid down by Bill Clinton. Lieberman has clearly bought into the science fiction peddled by Cheney and the neocons. Lieberman doesn't even understand how to play this for his own political advantage, which tells me that he's not as smart as I thought he was or that he's getting terrible advice, or both. Holy Joe is whoring the truth in order to try to turn himself into the anti-Dean, although why anyone would want to do that, given the Doc's obvious success, is beyond me. Get a clue, folks, the Dem primary voters don't want the anti-Dean, they want the real article or the military slightly pale copy.

If Joe Lieberman is the nominee, I will not cast a ballot in a presidential election for the first time in 32 years. Fortunately, there is little danger of that.

Conscience of a Conservative

There are a couple of conservative pundits I can stand: William Kristol and Tucker Carson, both of whom may spin the truth but seem to have a nodding familiarity with it. I have a hard time tolerating CNN's Crossfire because it is mostly a shouting match, but I watch it, or rather listen with half an ear while I'm surfing the Net, just to find out the meme of the day from both sides, and because Paul Begala and James Carville are just about the only liberal pundits on TV willing to put up a fight.

Yesterday, I came to discover that the Bow-Tied One is on the ground in Baghdad this week. He was on Crossfire live yesterday afternoon, and will be all this week. Because of what I saw and heard yesterday, I'm making a point to catch the show for the rest of the week. It was nearly 1 in the morning, Baghdad time, when Tucker gave his report yesterday, and he'd been in country only about 12 hours. The trip to Baghdad from the States is a long one, and then they took the long, overland route from the Kuwaiti border (which says something about security around Baghdad International.) I have every reason to think he was jet-lagged and just plain beat when he did his stand-up yesterday afternoon. But I saw something more in his eyes: the kid was freaked out. The trip in from the border was by armed convoy at speeds of 100-120 MPH (but he'd be used to that on the Capital Beltway and I-95, right?). He's staying outside the Green Zone (which is being used for target practice on a regular basis) with some of the CNN crew. They have to wear flak jackets to travel between the residence and the Bureau in the Palestine Hotel, which is in the Green Zone. Tucker kept repeating that he'd just gotten there, hadn't really experienced conditions first hand yet, but reported what he'd been told by the ex- Special Forces guys who make up his security detail. I don't know how much background, if any, Tucker had in straight reporting before he joined the pundit class, but it is clear from yesterday's report that he's trying. From the
transcript:

CARLSON: Well, I just got here, so I don't know much about the security situation other than people act like it's very dangerous.

We heard gunfire within moments of getting to Baghdad. We left about noon from the Kuwait border to the south, rolled right across the border. I never spoke to a single official. It's pretty wide open, it seemed to me.

Didn't see a single American soldier until we arrived at the CNN bureau here at the Palestine Hotel. Not a single one.

And drove very fast. I went with Kelly McCann, a CNN contributor, a frequent CROSSFIRE guest and guys who work for him, mostly ex-Special Forces. We drove about 100, 120 most of the way, heavily armed.

Pulled over for gas at one point. There are these enormous gas lines here, four-mile long gas lines in some cases. Pulled in, you know, nine armed guys with machine guns got out of our cars, out of our convoy, sort of took over the gas station, you know, blocked off entrance, searched cars, looked through cars, that kind of thing, while we filled up.

People seem like it's threatening. One of the guys I was traveling with is a former Marine recon guy, Special Forces guy, who spent five months in Somalia in the early '90s. And he said he believed after living here for six months that it's more dangerous than Mogadishu, is what he said.

Again I don't quite know how to evaluate that. But spending the rest of the week here, I'll find out. But that's what people say.

If ex-Special Forces guys are comparing Baghdad to Mogadishu, it is very bad indeed. Mogadishu was loonies in pickup trucks with machine guns, complete lawlessness.

There is a moment earlier in the transcript that revealed one of the reasons why I like Tucker. He says he has no illusion that he's going to find out anything signficant about what the ordinary Iraqi on the street thinks because he doesn't speak any Arabic and he's only going to be there a week. That little touch of humility in a journo, particularly a pundit, is rare and I appeciated it.

I will be watching Crossfire with interest this week to watch the evolution of a conservative. 4:30 EST, just before the loathsome Wolf Blitzer reports. One of his transcripts will get a full fisking at some point. I need to blow off some of that steam.

Circular Firing Squad

Mr. Gephardt's Reform Values

Tuesday, December 16, 2003; Page A36

OKAY, POLITICAL MONEY buffs, it's time for a game of connect-the-dots.

The machinists union endorses Rep. Richard A. Gephardt (D-Mo.). The machinists union makes a "significant" contribution to Americans for Jobs, Healthcare and Progressive Values (AJHPV), according to union political director Richard Michalski. The same AJHPV, a new organization, runs television ads in Iowa and elsewhere attacking former Vermont governor Howard Dean. Mr. Dean is Mr. Gephardt's leading rival for votes in the Iowa Democratic caucuses.

With us so far? Then continue: Leo Hindery, a cable television executive, is a national finance co-chair of the Gephardt campaign. Mr. Hindery is also a backer of AJHPV. The organization's chief fundraiser is a former Gephardt fundraiser, David Jones. Its president, Edward F. Feighan, a former Ohio congressman, has given the maximum $2,000 to the Gephardt campaign.

Is a picture beginning to emerge?

If so, it's not a pretty one, at least as it pertains to Mr. Gephardt, an ostensible supporter of campaign finance reform. The AJHPV is spending about $500,000 on TV spots, which began in Iowa and started running in South Carolina and New Hampshire this weekend. But it prefers to attack Mr. Dean without revealing its backers -- or their connections to the Gephardt campaign. The latest spot goes after Mr. Dean's inexperience in military and foreign policy. "Howard Dean just cannot compete with George Bush on foreign policy," it warns. "It's time for Democrats to think about that -- and think about it now."

That may be -- but Democrats might also want to think about who's making this pitch. Unfortunately, they may not know the complete list until the Iowa caucuses are over. The group will eventually have to report its donors and expenses, but unless it runs broadcast ads within 30 days of the primary, that information won't be available until February.

Mr. Gephardt says he doesn't know anything about AJHPV. Asked in an interview last week whether he would urge the group to reveal its donors, Mr. Gephardt demurred. "I guess this is the world we're in," he said resignedly. "I can't make them do it." No, but you'd think a statement of support for openness might carry some weight, given how many of Mr. Gephardt's fans are bankrolling the organization. Mr. Gephardt was a moving force behind campaign finance reform. His lack of interest in the subject now is telling.

I saw the ad. It's vile, the kind of hit piece that would come out of the Rove machine. But let's talk about the merits for a moment. Exactly how much foreign policy experience DO Gep or Kerry or Edwards have? How much "foreign policy" experience do you get serving on a congressional oversight committee? You get to hear experts answer your questions sometimes, you may take off on a trade mission to some other countries, but is this the same thing as having ultimate responsibility for policy decisions, executive responsibility? Hardly. One could argue (and should, given the electorate's preference for hiring ex-governors for the presidency) that experience in that lonely, ultimate responsibility place is a better test of the temper of the chief executive than the coalition-shifting, shared responsibility experience of the legislative branch. Beginning with Jimmy Carter, we've elected governors (with a time out for Bush 1, the ultimate Washington insider.)

I've always liked Dick Gephardt, I have a union background, and I think he'd make a good president, as would any of our candidates (the choices in the primaries are between candidates with so many different strengths rather than the least evil in a weak field, as the Repubs and media would have you think) but the judgement of any candidate who could knowingly allow this kind of ad to go forward has to be questioned. It smacks of desperation.

Hearty Holidays

Our menus are our history. We keep making beef stroganoff because we like it, but also because we had some wonderful experiences with friends and family over it. The Thanksgiving turkey is as much about family history as cuisine.

Over the next few weeks, the midwinter holidays of Judaism, Christianity, Hinduism and Buddhism, food and tradition will be part of the fare at the Bump. You are invited to share recipes and memories in comments, be generous with both and teach us to cook some new things as we lovingly consider the memory you shared.

Hannukah, the Festival of Lights for Jews, begins this Friday at sundown.

In the reign of Antiochus Epiphanes of Syria, about 175-163, BCE, an extended family of Jews lead by Mattathias, the high priest of the Temple in Jerusalem, staged a revolt against the Syrians in an attempt to win freedom for this people who had known little but foreign oppression and slavery in all their history. Like other foreign rulers, the Syrians made the Jews worship their gods, and if you know anything at all about Jews, their God was a singularity in the Ancient Near East and this blasphemy was an assault on their dignity as a people. Mattathias' revolt had no chance, but an insurgency developed led by his son, Judas Maccabeus, after the father's death. They were able to take and hold Jerusalem, and wanted to re-consecrate the Temple, which had been desecrated by the invaders. In the Temple law of the Torah, the lamp which stands watch over the Torah in the sanctuary of the Temple (and in synagogues today) must be lit continuously while the sacred scroll is residing in the Ark. As the Maccabees were re-dedicating the temple, they discovered that there was only enough oil for one day, the oil jars having been smashed by the invaders. It would take eight days to press more.

And then, as the sacred texts like to tell us, a miracle ocurred. The single jar of oil burned for eight days. The Festival of Lights was born to memorialize and celebrate this wonder. Hannukah is not the Jewish Christmas, it occupies a very different place in the Jewish liturgical calendar than that foundational Christian holiday, but Jews celebrate it in ways which are traditional within their families. It is a "home" holiday, rather than a liturgical one. Exchanges of gifts are traditional in many homes for the eight days of the holiday, as are parties, traditional songs, toys and games. Each night, a candle is light in the family's menorah to commemorate this miracle of lights.

I was introduced to Judaism (and the foods) by a family who remain very close to me to this day. My "Jewish Mother" taught me to make latkes, the potato pancakes which are traditional in Ashkenazic Jewish homes for this holiday. I love them. Part of the tradition is to be very generous with oil when frying, since the holiday is based in a surprise abundance of oil.

Broadly speaking, there are two cultural branches of Judaism in the United States (this is very broad...): the Ashkenazim, who came from Russia, Poland, the Baltics, Germany and through the Diaspora, England. Their common language at the time of immigration was Yiddish, a hodge-podge macaronic language which includes elements of Hebrew, German, Polish and Russian; Sephardic Jews came from the Jewish Diaspora around the Mediterannean basin and have roots in Spain, North Africa and the Near East. Their common language at the time of immigration was/is Sephardic, a macaronic language which emphasizes elements of Spanish, Hebrew and the Morrocan dialect of Arabic. Both languages are written in Hebrew script, but a Sephardic speaker from Morroco isn't going to understand a Yiddish speaker from Minsk without a lot of hand and feet pointing.

But both will celebrate Hannukah, and the Ashkenaz will be eating potato pancakes, and so will I. These things are good. Here's my friend's recipe. I'm being generous with calling it a recipe, I'm trying to quantify things she showed me, and I still measure by eye and handful.

For 6-8, depending on appetites.

6 grated medium potatoes
1 small onion, grated (don't use the food processor, they turn to mush)
2 beaten eggs
2 tablespoons of flour
2 tablespoons baking POWDER (not soda)
1 teaspoon salt
Experiment with: cinnamon and allspice OR pepper and a little lemon zest, more on this later
A half cup oil, peanut works better than olive because the temperature is pretty hot

Combine everything but the oil and mix well. Heat half the oil in a skillet or fryer. Using a large spoon, utility size, ease a pancake-sized piece of the batter into the hot oil. Don't let it get too thick or the outside will burn before the center cooks. These are not road-house buckwheat pancakes, but rather smaller and more delicate things. Add more oil if needed, but let the oil completely reheat before adding more batter. As soon as the center of the pancakes just begins to brown, remove and drain. Don't let the edges get black, the center of each surface should just be lightly brown, with the color deepening to the edges. Use the edge of a paper towel to remove broken off pieces before they burn and make the oil taste burned.

Serve these hot, if you are making the cinnamon and allspice ones, apple sauce is the traditional topping. The savory lemon and pepper ones should be served with sour cream. With a soup or a salad, this is a meal. We'll deal with the breads later in the week.

Elayne Riggs of Pen-Elayne on the Web asked in Comments if we'd like her recipe. I responded by email, Bring it On, so I hope she will add to my knowledge before the weekend. This is deceptively simple food, attention to detail matters a lot more than complicated ingrediants. And, if you've never had a potato pancake before, you'll be speaking "latkes" in no time. Hearty, simple food for cold weather.

Blogging the Campaign

Matt Stoller, Chris Lydon, Jay Rosen, and a small but active group of contributing writers have created an interesting project, The Blogging of the President: 2004. This group blog is set up to document the way that bloggers (that means both bloggers and blog readers) are going to change the shape and maybe the direction of this presidential campaign. I heard about this when the blog went up a month ago, but today was the first time I had a chance to visit and poke around. Wow. The writers are rethinking the way we frame communication and interactivity and what that means for a decentralized/assymetrical medium and campaign. They don't have it all worked out yet, no one does, we are being shaped by the medium even as we push and pull at it and test its dimensions. This is going to be an interesting site to check in on throughout the campaign. You and I have the opportunity to become part of that conversation and the book which I imagine will be one of its end products. Here is a recent post:

Reactions to Gore: A Speedy Media Cycle

by Matt Stoller

In less than 12 hours, the media and internet cycle has churned through to produce a broad consensus of the meaning of the Gore endorsement of Howard Dean. The progressive blogs, MSNBC, the New York Times, the American Prospect, The New Republic, and the ultra right-wing Free Republic are all talking pretty openly about the fusion of Dean's insurgent campaign structure with the Democratic Party establishment, and the intraparty struggles going on.

The blog world is a rough analogue to the world of punditry. It's social, using links and friendships that communify information. On the Dean blog, you can find thousands of posts chattering excitedly of the multiple phone calls and instant messages they received the moment Gore endorsed; the Clark listservs and the vicious right-wing Free Republic crackled in realtime as well, less happily in tone but with largely the same storyline.

The web has allowed punditry to scale dramatically, cracking open the social structure of the political establishment and force feeding the real storyline to every political junkie with a computer and phone line. When everyone's a pundit and everyone's a source, it can get pretty hard to 'create news' that isn't true.

The internet and media cycles will churn through it too quickly.

This is one to bookmark.

Fearful Giant

For the last year, as it became clear that Bush was going to commit us to an unnecessary war, one that flunks most of the "Just War" tests as I learned them in moral theology, I began to reflect on the spiritual significance for our country of this conflict. I'm a spiritual director, a pastoral minister used to working and thinking in the one-to-one dimension, so it was a little daunting to think about putting our whole country, or at least the part of it that favored the war, on my living room sofa.

My reflection turned on this key relationship: the Iraq war works for people because it connects their fear and humiliation post-9/11 to aggressive action. Of course, Bush could have used the Afghanistan war (and actually accomplished something about curbing terrorism)to do the same thing, but Afghanistan didn't fit the criteria pre-selected by the neocons for the first establishment of global American hegemony.

I've read a number of articles and blog posts in the last few months which ask the question, what is this immoral conflict doing to us as Americans, as world citizens? Our public discourse on so many subjects has become poisonous, and the blogosphere certainly partakes of this. In the comments threads on some of the posts below, a lively debate about how to take about the matters of morality which underly public policy has sprung up.

If you develop the yen for a "think" piece and have a little time, this insightful Nation article by Robert Jay Lifton offers some diagnoses and possible cures for the fearfulness which underlies some of the bad policy decisions we are living with right now. A taste:

American Apocalypse

The American apocalyptic entity is less familiar to us. Even if its urges to power and domination seem historically recognizable, it nonetheless represents a new constellation of forces bound up with what I've come to think of as "superpower syndrome." By that term I mean a national mindset--put forward strongly by a tight-knit leadership group--that takes on a sense of omnipotence, of unique standing in the world that grants it the right to hold sway over all other nations. The American superpower status derives from our emergence from World War II as uniquely powerful in every respect, still more so as the only superpower from the end of the cold war in the early 1990s.

More than mere domination, the American superpower now seeks to control history. Such cosmic ambition is accompanied by an equally vast sense of entitlement--of special dispensation to pursue its aims. That entitlement stems partly from historic claims to special democratic virtue, but has much to do with an embrace of technological power translated into military terms. That is, a superpower--the world's only superpower--is entitled to dominate and control precisely because it is a superpower.

The murderous events of 9/11 hardened that sense of entitlement as nothing else could have. Superpower syndrome did not require 9/11, but the attacks on the twin towers and the Pentagon rendered us an aggrieved superpower, a giant violated and made vulnerable, which no superpower can permit.

Indeed, at the core of superpower syndrome lies a powerful fear of vulnerability. A superpower's victimization brings on both a sense of humiliation and an angry determination to restore, or even extend, the boundaries of a superpower-dominated world. Integral to superpower syndrome are its menacing nuclear stockpiles and their world-destroying capacity.

Write Like Nedra Pickler Day

There IS other significant news today.

Supreme Court will review lawsuit over Cheney energy meetings

Monday, December 15, 2003 Posted: 10:33 AM EST (1533 GMT)

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Supreme Court said Monday it will settle a fight stemming from Vice President Dick Cheney's contacts with the energy industry as the Bush administration was drafting its energy policy.

The court agreed to hear an appeal from the administration, which is fighting a lawsuit over the allegedly cozy relationships between industry and the panel Cheney assembled.

The watchdog group Judicial Watch and an environmental organization, the Sierra Club, had won permission from a lower court to gather records related to the energy task force.

The interest groups claim the task force's dealings should be open to the public.

The task force met for several months in 2001, and issued a report that favored opening more public lands to oil and gas drilling and proposes a wide range of other steps supported by industry.

***snip***

Judicial Watch sued the task force in July 2001, asking for names of task force participants, details of the group's workings and information about Cheney's involvement. The mainly conservative Judicial Watch made its name suing the Clinton administration but has applied the same tactics to the Republican Bush administration.

A related story popped up over the weekend. In conjunction with Bill Moyer's NOW production unit, U.S. News conducted a five month investigation into the Bush administration's mostly successful attempt to classify or otherwise shield information from the public. The link also contains a link to the NOW report. A sample from the U.S. News report:

Important business and consumer information is increasingly being withheld from the public. The Bush administration is denying access to auto and tire safety information, for instance, that manufacturers are required to provide under a new "early-warning" system created following the Ford-Firestone tire scandal four years ago. The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission, meanwhile, is more frequently withholding information that would allow the public to scrutinize its product safety findings and product recall actions.

New administration initiatives have effectively placed off limits critical health and safety information potentially affecting millions of Americans. The information includes data on quality and vulnerability of drinking-water supplies, potential chemical hazards in communities, and safety of airline travel and other forms of transportation. In Aberdeen, Md., families who live near an Army weapons base are suing the Army for details of toxic pollution fouling the town's drinking-water supplies. Citing security, the Army has refused to provide information that could help residents locate and track the pollution.

Beyond the well-publicized cases involving terrorism suspects, the administration is aggressively pursuing secrecy claims in the federal courts in ways little understood--even by some in the legal system. The administration is increasingly invoking a "state secrets" privilege (box, Page 24) that allows government lawyers to request that civil and criminal cases be effectively closed by asserting that national security would be compromised if they proceed. It is impossible to say how often government lawyers have invoked the privilege. But William Weaver, a professor at the University of Texas-El Paso, who recently completed a study of the historical use of the privilege, says the Bush administration is asserting it "with offhanded abandon." In one case, Weaver says, the government invoked the privilege 245 times. In another, involving allegations of racial discrimination, the Central Intelligence Agency demanded, and won, return of information it had provided to a former employee's attorneys--only to later disclose the very information that it claimed would jeopardize national security.

Obligatory Nedra Pickler reference: But the authors fail to notice the great strides in water and sewer service in Iraq.

Tea Leaf Reading

I've spent the morning surfing the news and opinion websites to try to figure out if there is a consensus of the scholars about what happens next in the Middle East. There is none.

I'm aware that I have very little in the way of expertise in the history and politics of this complicated part of the world, although I've tried to do something in the way of self-education since 11 September 01. I think we all learned on that day that ignorance is a dangerous thing.

I came under a lot of criticism on some websites yesterday for being something less than utterly congratulatory about the capture of Saddam. From a political point of view, Bush will get a bump for a while from this, but whether or not Saddam's capture has any significance strategically in Iraq is an open question. It doesn't appear that he had much to do with the insurgency, and has probably not been a factor since the fall of Baghdad, so his capture won't mean much, other than the possibility that it takes any of the steam out of the pro-Ba'athist Sunnis. Juan Cole and other commentators also wonder if the spector of a Saddam-less future gives Shi'ite majority cause to rise up. The days ahead look murky to me.

The quality of the news and analysis that we've been getting is also suspect, at least from the cable and network news sources. The newspapers this morning had more thoughtful articles and analysis, and I'll be putting some of that up today as I have time to read more.

I found this website this morning which has contrarian views, some of which are worth thinking about. As'ad AbuKhalil is a Lebanese-born professor of political science in California. He is blistering in his critique of ME coverage on TV news and gives us the self-proclaimed Angry Arab perspective on the weekend's events.

Watch the way administration officials and the news media spin the relationship between 9/11 and Saddam, between terrorism and Iraq, and whether or not anybody asks "Where's Osama?" The overarching strategic and political question for Bush remains: how is he going to rescue the Iraq project from growing unrest.

Why anyone thinks this development takes the wind out of Howard Dean's sails defies logic. Why anyone thinks this development is going to help us "internationalize" this quagmire also defies logic.

Perfection

Here's what we're being overcharged for:
hat tip Agonist
Bechtel criticized over school project in Iraq

By Larry Kaplow, Palm Beach Post-Cox News Service

BAGHDAD -- The Bechtel Corp. built the Hoover Dam and the English Channel Tunnel, but Iraqi school Principal Yakob Yusef al-Yakobi wonders why it can't keep the new fluorescent lights from falling off his high school's ceilings.

The gap under his new office door is so big he has nailed a board across the bottom to keep out the stray kittens that had been crawling underneath it for shelter.

The principal and his staff also say that Bechtel's Iraqi subcontractors replaced usable floor tiles and 32 ceiling fans --school property -- and sold them off, leaving behind lower-quality replacements.

"They just wanted to finish their work very quickly," he said. "We trust Bechtel, but it was very bad to give contracts to Iraqi contractors."

President Bush and other U.S. officials tout the repairs to Iraq's schools as a hallmark of an American-led renewal, a symbol of hope for a new generation of Iraqis. But for many in Baghdad, including some U.S. troops involved in the work, Bechtel's school rehabilitation appears slipshod and wasteful.

Contractor served troops dirty food in dirty kitchens

AFP , WASHINGTON
Sunday, Dec 14, 2003,Page 7

The Pentagon repeatedly warned contractor Halliburton-KBR that the food it served to US troops in Iraq was "dirty," as were as the kitchens it was served in, NBC News reported on Friday.

Halliburton-Kellogg Brown and Root's promises to improve "have not been followed through," according to a Pentagon report that warned "serious repercussions may result" if the contractor did not clean up.

The Pentagon reported finding "blood all over the floor," "dirty pans," "dirty grills," "dirty salad bars" and "rotting meats ... and vegetables" in four of the military messes the company operates in Iraq, NBC said, citing Pentagon documents.

The corruption of this effort, top to bottom, is quite amazing. The Bushies can't get anything right. Don't you think that Bush is unelectable.

Propaganda

Like all of the rest of you, I imagine, I'm channel surfing and internet surfing the pundit blogs. The amount of pure crap I'm hearing and seeing is predictable, and you can guess the way the Republican spinmeisters are going to play Saddam's capture: we got the bad guy, so this justifies the war. Horseshit. Would we spend hundreds of American lives and billions of dollars to take out all of the other viscious tyrants that populate the second and third world? Hell, no. But any Dem who questions the casus belli is going to be called pro-Saddam again.

Every Senatorial talking head is saying we must internationalize Iraq immediately. This defies logic: capturing Saddam changes nothing of any importance in strategy or geopolitics. The French, Germans and Canadians have no greater reason today to send their sons and daughters to be blown up by car bombs or IEDs than they had yesterday. On the other hand, does this give Bushco a reason to declare victory and pull out? Ya think?

The Beat Goes On

Car Bomb at Iraq Police Station Kills 17

The Associated Press Sunday, December 14, 2003; 4:28 AM

KHALDIYA, Iraq - A car bomb exploded Sunday morning at a police station in this town west of Baghdad, killing at least 17 people and wounding 33 others, a U.S. military officer said.

A suicide bomber apparently carried out the attack, U.S. army Lt. Col. Jeff Swisher said.
An emergency room administrator at a hospital in the nearby city of Ramadi said there were 18 people killed in the blast and more than 20 injured. Many of the victims were police officers, said the hospital administrator, Haitham Bahar Taha.

The attack in Khaldiya, about 50 miles west of Baghdad, occurred at 8:40 a.m. near the main police station, residents and the U.S. military said.

No American soldiers were in the area when the bomb exploded. U.S. troops called to the scene blocked off the area and two helicopters were seen hovering overhead.

U.S. troops have been targeted by suicide bombers three times in the past week in attacks that left dozens of soldiers injured and one killed.

Khaldiya is located in the so-called Sunni Triangle west and north of the capital, where attacks against occupation troops and their Iraqi allies have been fiercest.

Hooray. We got Saddam. The suicide bombers weren't working for Saddam yesterday, and they won't be working for him tomorrow. We pulled Saddam out of a rathole last night, which tells me that he wasn't directing the guerrillas, Rummy's propaganda on "Ba'athists" and "bitter-enders" to the contrary. The insurgents may take a couple of days off to celebrate, but the reason why they are fighting, our unpopular occupation, ain't going away.

CNN just put up a breaking news banner: suicide car bomb in the "Green Zone" of Baghdad.

Caught

We got Saddam. That's good. But he isn't the guy who orchestrated 9/11. Saddam orchestrated a lot, some of it with US sins of omission and of commission. Those mass graves are horrors, reminders of the bad things this man did. They are also reminders of the fact that we invited Iraqis to rise up after the '91 Gulf war and did nothing to help them.

Saddam's terror war on his people is over. Hooray. But we are still occupying Iraq, and the Iraqis don't like that, either.

By the way, it was Osama bin Forgotten who was behind the 11 September 01 attacks. And we've pretty much crippled our warfight in Afghanistan by putting all our markers in Iraq.

The media is going to have a field day with this, when what it means is negligible. This was a war of choice. It does nothing to change the balance of terror.

Does Ahmad Chalabi really want an open trial for Saddam, where he gets an open platform for telling the world what the Reagan and Bush 1 regimes did for him? I wonder.

Snow was falling, snow on snow

I may need to turn to prayer.

The snow/ice/sleet/shit is supposed to start directly and I'm trapped in the house with It's a Wonderful Life or Charlie Brown Christmas. There will be a storm food post at some point on the correct way to make scrambled eggs, a little disquisition on a proper hollandaise sauce and some thoughts on the Ashkenazi foods for Hannukah, which as Steve Gilliard likes to point out, is not a made up holiday like Kwanzaa and is older than Christmas, and features some of my favorite foods.

No, I'm not Jewish, but if you read this site often you'll know that I'm faith-friendly to any tradition, particularly the ones that have good holiday food. Which would be all of them. In January, I'll have some culinary thoughts on Diwali, the Hindu Festival of Lights, an excellent party time. In February or March, we begin the run up to Mardi Gras, a multi-culti culinary obsession prior to the fast of Lent for Christians. New Years Day foods for westerners will be one theme, but the world doesn't have one New Years Day, the Asians celebrate the Lunar New Year, Tet, here in my home city with parades and fireworks and special foods, usually in January. New Year means something completely different to a Jew, who welcomes in the New Year at harvest time in the fall with the High Holidays of Rosh Hoshanah and Yom Kippur, which are followed in a few weeks by the wonderful and fun Festival of Booths. All of these require different foods. And then there are the extremely special sacramental/special foods of the Passover Seder.

We'll vamp a bit on Shabbat, the Jewish sabbath and the traditional meals served in Ashkenaz homes, some time spent on Sunday dinners as regional phenomena across Christian America (the good old days) and visit with our Muslim neighbors for the family meal on Friday, their day of prayer.

Your recipes are invited for sharing, and will be tested here in the Bump kitchen. To the Zen/vegans among you: I have been there, too. I still cook interesting brown rice dishes, can do 140 interesting things with tofu (which I still sneak into meals for carnivores and they can't tell the difference, and you can do some very interesting things with a portobello mushroom. Learned that from the Dalai Lama's staff.) I'm not a vegetarian any more, but I eat cocina pobre as both a choice and an economical necessity, meat is prized and rare around here. Have you eaten the Buddhist foods of Thailand? They know how to party.

It's time to start building the holiday foods Wiki.

One shouldn't do politics, or any other human interaction, without a culture of celebration. Hey, I'm Catholic, that's how we think.

Back in the day when I was learning labor organizing, my mentor, Lew Waldeck, who is a legend, taught me about parties, to which I am allergic.

Lew said, "It is really hard to knife a guy after you've been drinking beer with him the night before." This is a hard lesson from the labor movement, and one that Dems are going to have to learn to live with: organizing is a bloody sport, but if we are going to build a Dem majority in this country, we've got to start doing what the Rs do, and start treating each other like sibs instead of impossibly impure strangers. We've got to stop having tests for purity. We have to start liking each other and eating together and finding a common center. Our feuds allowed Ronald Reagan, Bush Senior and the current situation to happen.

Most of America doesn't live in the top two quartiles of income. Think about that for a minute. Most of us are never going to be rich, but we've strived enough to think that one day we can be healthy retirees.

That's a fallacy under the current plan. This Medicare plan is going to screw my mom and it is going to screw me.

Your thoughts?

No Way Out?

The conventional wisdom on the Iraq war among Democrats is that our new Democratic president will internationalize the conflict immediately upon assuming office in January, 2005. What if the conventional wisdom is wrong? What if the rest of the world says, "Congratulations on electing your wonderful new guy, we really like him and think you did well. But, you see, we can't help you."

Feeling The Sting

By David Corn

There's a hornet's nest out back. You and your buddy talk about what to do about it. He says, "I'm going to hit it with a stick." You say, "No, don't do that. Let's think about another way to deal with the problem."

He says, "I'm going to hit it with a stick." You plead, "Don't do this. Maybe we can smoke them out. Ask others what to do. Find some other solution."

He says, "I'm going to hit it with a stick." You reply, " No, really, let's—" He then hits the nest with a stick. Hornets go flying everywhere. They sting whomever they can find. As chaos ensues, your friend looks at you and says, "Hey, don't tell me that it was wrong to hit it with a stick. That would be a waste of time. Tell me what's your solution for dealing with the problem now."

Such a scenario is an imperfect analogy for the position war critics find themselves in these days. (Imperfect because a hornet's nest might pose a more immediate threat to the characters in this tale than Saddam Hussein, despite all his brutality, posed to the United States.) In recent weeks, defenders of the war have dismissed criticism of the war as counterproductive at this point in time and have tried to turn the tables on the critics by demanding they provide a roadmap for victory and extrication. It's an old ruse: don't be so negative, give us solutions. But there is no reason why I-told-you-so critics should be expected to pull George W. Bush's bacon from the fire. In fact, there may be no way out.

***snip***

The Democratic presidential candidates have each blasted the occupation and proposed similar alternatives in Iraq. They generally argue that Bush must turn over the occupation to the United Nations and that such a hand off would pave the way for internationalizing the military action in Iraq. Their assumption is that if the Bush administration yielded control over the political and economic developments in Iraq (sorry, Halliburton), then other nations of the world would be willing to send troops to Iraq to assist the United States there. This is an untested assumption. But as the war becomes uglier (whoever said anything about barbed wire?), is it likely that other nation will deploy troops to Iraq for what is not a peacekeeping mission but a counterinsurgency operation? Moreover, could a multilateral force be more successful in vanquishing the insurgents—which is now the challenge at hand—than the U.S. military?

It is pretty to think that the United Nations could make things right in Iraq. But it is a notion based more on hope than fact. It could happen. But—fortunately for the Democratic candidates—Bush shows no signs of replacing Paul Bremer with Kofi Anan. I say "fortunately" because this means the Democrats can continue to advocate such a course and claim they have something to offer beyond criticism of Bush—even if their proposal has obvious shortcomings. I don't fault them. They have to have their own plans. But no one should imagine that such an approach would definitely succeed. It may be the only option worth trying. But let's be real: it is no slam dunk.

Let's see, in the last couple of weeks we've started wrapping entire villages in razor wire, have brought in the Israelis to show us how they fight the insurgency in the Occupied Territories and set up an elite assassination unit, and still the natives are not pacified. What country in their right mind is going to commit troops into a growing insurgency?

What if they literally can't?

British Army now too weak to fight war

GETHIN CHAMBERLAIN DEFENCE CORRESPONDENT

BRITAIN is no longer capable of launching a major military action against another nation state without the help of the United States, the government conceded yesterday.

The admission, in the long-awaited defence white paper, coincided with the publication of a damning report on the handling of the war in Iraq and an accusation from the chairman of an influential Commons committee that British troops in Iraq had been "shamefully let down" by the government.

The report, published by the National Audit Office (NAO), described the campaign in Iraq as a significant military success but lambasted the government for sending troops into combat without adequate equipment, including weapons, ammunition, body armour and medical supplies.

The findings were described by Edward Leigh, the chairman of the Commons public accounts committee, as an "outrage".

"We expect the men and women of the armed forces to fight and maybe die for us. So it is an outrage that they could not expect all of the proper equipment, protection and even clothing to do the job we ask of them. They were shamefully let down," he said.

The Guardian and the BBC reported earlier this week that UK troops were commited to the Gulf minus flak jackets, chembio suits, spare parts, you name it. Tony apparently wasn't quite ready to go when George was.

There are similar stories coming out of France, Germany and Canada. The Nato countries have troops in Kosovo, Bosnia and Afghanistan and they are very stretched. The Australians and Kiwis have a large contingent of UN peacekeepters in East Timor. The fact of the matter is that the UN would be unable to field an international force which is strategically large enough to contain a continuing insurgency in Iraq without American force size that would remain so large as to be a political liability for Bush well into 2004.

Wes Clark, Howard Dean and the rest of the serious candidates are all looking for international salvation in Iraq. What if there isn't any? Anybody got Plan C?

In other news, I'm sitting at the computer listening to Inside Washington in the background. Like most liberals, Dr. Krauthammer's recent psychological profiles of Democrats irritated me no end, but Charles has now officially decompensated: he just announced that there is no dissonance between Wolfowitz's Iraq contract policy and James Baker's debt forgiveness mission, because the Baker mission is essentially pointless. I'm sure that Baker sees it that way, too. I'm beginning to think that this Straussian Neo-conservative movement belongs in the Diagnostic Statistical Manual in its next revision. This is pathology.

Damned Lies, Statistics

Fund a Proven AIDS Foe

This week brought reasons to question the highfalutin pledges by U.S. leaders to battle AIDS, which killed 3 million people this year, and HIV, which infected 5 million. On Wednesday, Bush administration officials announced plans to scale back commitments to fight AIDS and poverty by more than 80% between now and 2008. Also Wednesday, the Senate postponed until January approval of a bill that would have allocated $2.4 billion to fight AIDS next year.

With the nation's budget stretched thin to pay for the war in Iraq and massive tax cuts, there's not much hope that Washington will be able to fund the entire $2.4 billion.

However, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) — who has called the spread of AIDS in poor nations "the greatest moral and humanitarian challenge of really the last 100 years" — should at least press the administration to make better use of whatever funding scraps it thinks it can afford to throw.

The biggest impediment is the administration's insistence that most new aid flow not to the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria — the private-public partnership spearheaded by United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan — but rather to the Millennium Challenge Account, its own program to, as Secretary of State Colin L. Powell put it this week, "draw whole nations into an expanding circle of opportunity and enterprise."

The President's weekly radio address:

On international issues, Bush touted his effort to increase spending to battle AIDS in developing countries, his administration's diplomacy on the North Korean nuclear standoff and the toppling of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.

Kinda makes David Brooks op-ed in the Times this morning look stupid, doesn't it?

Internet Campaign Guide

Stewart Kirkpatrick writing in yesterday's Scotsman.com

Intriguingly, the US election online has become much more than a series of tedious pages puffing politician's egos and laying out a carefully costed series of lies (though Lord knows there are plenty of them).

Activists are learning how to use the net's foibles to undermine their opponents.

The finest example of this has been the googlebomb dropped on George W Bush. Googlebombing is the subtle art of manipulating the world's biggest search engine to make unexpected associations with certain search results.

Because of the way Google reads pages and rates them, if enough sites link to one page with the same phrase then that page will appear higher up search results for that phrase. For instance, if enough people link to this column with the words "eats too many pies" then my column will appear high up the search results for the phrase "eats too many pies", which would be harsh but fair.

So it is that, thanks to the work of a few dedicated individuals, the top result for a Google search on miserable failure is a biography of the most powerful, not properly elected man in the world.

In an intriguing twist, different referrers carry different weight. According to Google's Page Rank system, the Washington Post has an authority of nine out of ten, as does the New York Times. Scotsman.com incidentally is rated at eight, which is very high. So if I link to that biography using the words miserable failure, I contribute to the googlebomb. Perhaps if I do it twice I'll reinforce the effect: miserable failure. I wonder what happens if I link to it three times: miserable failure.

Miserable failure. Miserable failure. Miserable failure. Miserable failure. Miserable failure. Miserable failure. Miserable failure. (This is purely in the interests of scientific research, you understand.)

***snip***

It's not just Google that's being used to undermine Bush. A form of cybersquatting has afflicted him. The official White House website is whitehouse.gov. Famously, whitehouse.com is a porn site, and has been for years. However, whitehouse.org is a very clever parody of the official site. In fact it takes several seconds to realise that headlines such as: "President's Surprise Thanksgiving Remarks to Troops During His Brave, 150-Minute, After-Dark Jaunt to the Maximum-Security Heart of the 'Mission Accomplished' Zone" are spoofs. Incidentally, Whitehouse.net is also a parody.

One of the Democrat presidential hopefuls, Dick Gephardt, has tried to appropriate the "miserable failure" phrase by setting up a page with the URL amiserablefailure.com as a platform for lambasting Bush. Of course, this has the side-effect of associating Gephardt's own name with the phrase "miserable failure", an interesting move. Perhaps he's trying to appeal to failing, miserable swing voters. (A nice touch on one of Gephardt's sites is a chance to send Bush a pink slip telling him he's been fired. It's at ga3.org/campaign/pink_slip.)

The Democrat with the most effective site is Howard Dean. The URL deanforamerica.com seems somehow more promising than amiserablefailure.com. The site also has many opportunities for activists to join Dean's bandwagon. Wesley Clark's site (clark04.com) is also impressive. However, the US election site which gets my vote promotes a candidate who has yet to enter the race. It represents the obvious next step in the evolution of American democracy (aside from just having computers hand victory to the Republicans every four years): it is Tony Blair for President at blair2004.com.

You want him? You can have him.

The Fog of War

Is Secrecy a Progressive Value?

Sunday, December 14, 2003; Page B06

SOME HARD-HITTING ADS have been running in Iowa. One compares former Vermont governor Howard Dean to President Bush, citing both men's "top grades" from the National Rifle Association. The latest notes that "Howard Dean and George Bush stood together and supported the unfair NAFTA trade agreement." At the end, the announcer intones, "So if you thought Howard Dean had a progressive record, check the facts. And please, think again." But it's not any of Mr. Dean's rivals who are seeking this reconsideration. nstead, it's a new entity that calls itself "Americans for Jobs, Healthcare and Progressive Values."

Values that don't include letting voters know who's footing the bill. The group has spent $230,000 for the first week of ads, but it won't say where the money is coming from. Under the out-of-sync reporting schedule that governs such groups, donors' names don't have to be revealed until early February, after the caucuses are safely over. Meanwhile, its identity is getting more and more mysterious: Early last week, its president was Timothy L. Raftis, a former aide to Sen. Tom Harkin; now, a new president has suddenly appeared on the group's Web site: former representative Edward Feighan (D-Ohio). The group's treasurer is fundraiser David Jones, who has worked for one of Mr. Dean's chief rivals, Rep. Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri -- but suddenly, it has a new spokesman, John Kerry's former press secretary, Robert Gibbs, which might suggest, to the conspiracy-minded, an effort to deflect attention from a possible Gephardt connection. (The Gephardt campaign says it knows nothing about the group.)

So is the money from unions that back Mr. Gephardt but don't want to be publicly connected to this anti-Dean campaign? At least some such unions have been solicited. Or is it from a few wealthy donors who don't like Mr. Dean -- and perhaps are backing another one of the trailing Democratic candidates? From Republicans who want to take Mr. Dean down a few notches? There's no way for a voter in Iowa to know, not in time for that information to make a difference. The group could voluntarily disclose its backers before the legal deadline, but it won't. "The reason is that's what we've chosen to do. . . . We want to ensure that we have full disclosure rather than piecemeal," Mr. Raftis told us.

The real battle for the presidency was commenced when the Club for Growth ads began running a couple of weeks ago, but this WaPo editorial points up the way that obfuscation, near-lies and secrecy (hidden motives, secret cash) are going to be the players in the upcoming election. This 527 group already descended into Orwellian newspeak. Look at that last sentence. "We are going to ensure full disclosure by not disclosing." That's what we are going to be dealing with from now through the election, from both sides of the aisle. Combine the deliberate desire to deceive with the lapdog press corps and it is going to be very difficult to keep the players straight in the months ahead. Blogs are here to help sift all the information that's available in open sources, but the real power of the blogs is in the way that they are themselves open sources, inviting a community of information to form.

So, join in. When you find new information, post it in comments, or post it on your blog and give us a link in comments. We are all going to have to put on our thinking caps to sort through the really vile disinformation campaign that this election will undoubtably be. Everybody with a computer and an internet connection has a cudgel to help beat back the rolling shock wave of Newspeak that's going to come at us for the next 11 months.

UPDATE: Keven Drum is calling these kind of factually-challenged attack ads "political porn." Let's run with that.

Backstory

Some back story loose-ends to be watching for in coming days:

You don't actually think that whole Halliburton scam story broke without a little leaky help, do you? The Executive Branch has chosen to go the "full hang-out route," even in the face of Rumsfeld's denials, to try to inoculate themselves against peering eyes who want to look further into friends-n-family connections. Go Google New Bridge Strategies LLC and see what names come up.

The ever-invaluable Dr. Marshall quotes a Senior White House Official on L'Affaire Plame:

"We have let the earth-movers roll in over this one (i.e. the Plame investigation)."
"Senior White House official"
Financial Times
December 5th, 2003

To which the mordant Dr. Marshall comments:

If you slap the press around enough and keep your people's mouths shut you usually get what you want.

Usually ...

We remind you that the CIA hasn't forgotten this whole affair. If the WH thinks they can bury it, they truly don't understand Washington. We know who the favored leak recipients are in the press. The intel pros are going to make sure that they aren't competing with press coverage of Kobe Bryant, Michael Jackson and Scott Peterson. Timing is everything. Josh likes to be subtle, but if you've been reading him for a while, you know that last line means he's got a thing or two up his sleeve. For a mere pup, the man has impressive sources.

Lastly, a breaking Bump story. We've learned from sources inside the Georgia Dean organization that Rep. Elijah Cummings, Chair of the Congressional Black Caucus, will be endorsing Gov. Dean at an event in Atlanta tomorrow.

Off the Radar

We have this other war going on. The news isn't so hot.

Crucial Afghan assembly postponed

Fri 12 December, 2003 14:49

By Sayed Salahuddin

KABUL (Reuters) - Vote buying and intimidation have marred a landmark assembly in Afghanistan supposed to decide on a new constitution, boding ill for elections supposed to be held next year, Human Rights Watch says.

The start of the Loya Jirga, or Grand Assembly was delayed until Sunday, amid protracted wrangling over sweeping powers demanded by President Hamid Karzai.
But the whole process could be undermined by regional strongmen and warlords who have used fraud and intimidation to get their supporters elected to the assembly, the New York-based watchdog warned.

"Candidates told us about being threatened and strong-armed and some were bribed to drop their candidacies," said John Sifton, Afghanistan researcher for Human Rights Watch.

Afghans soldiers, foreign peacekeepers and American forces have thrown a tight security blanket around the polytechnic compound where 500 delegates -- including Islamists, democrats and federalists -- will gather.

The delegates will sit in a large tent within the compound, perhaps for several weeks, to debate the document supposed to guide war-battered Afghanistan to its first ever presidential elections in June next year.

But the process has already come in for criticism.

Diplomats said the draft was drawn up without enough popular consultation, and there are mounting fears that Karzai will try to force it through the assembly without a proper debate.

AP Interview: U.N. Envoy Warns of Total Pullout Over Fading Afghan Security
By Stephen Graham Associated Press Writer
Published: Dec 12, 2003

KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) - The United Nations may be forced to abandon its two-year effort to stabilize Afghanistan because of rising violence blamed on the resurgent Taliban, its top official here warned Friday in an interview with The Associated Press.

Lakhdar Brahimi said his team could not continue its work unless security improves. He called for more foreign troops to halt attacks that have killed at least 11 aid workers across the south and east since March.

"Countries that are committed to supporting Afghanistan cannot kid themselves and cannot go on expecting us to work in unacceptable security conditions," Brahimi said.

"They seem to think that our presence is important here. Well, if they do, they have got to make sure that the conditions for us to be here are there," he said. "If not, we will go away."

U.N. calls for international troops to fan out across Afghanistan's troubled provinces have grown shrill since a French U.N. refugee worker was gunned down in the eastern city of Ghazni in October.

The world body has suspended some operations in regions along the border, where Taliban militants and their allies have been most active, including help to thousands of refugees returning from Pakistan.

Meanwhile, back in Iraq, Grand Ayatollah Sistani is calling for the elections and constitutional writing process to be overseen by the UN, to confer additional legitimacy. The same should be going on in Afghanistan, but the UN doesn't particularly want to be in places where they will be shot at.

The Old Guard Musters to Africa

I heard Diane Rehm mention this in passing during her "News Round Up" this morning on NPR and I was floored. The Old Guard hasn't deployed into a conflict zone since Viet Nam. This speaks volumes about how over-stretched the Army is now and for the forseeable future.

For the Old Guard, A Renewed Mission

By Steve Vogel
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, December 12, 2003; Page A22

For the U.S. Army's Old Guard, the war in Iraq has been one of ceremony: escorting the caskets of fallen soldiers as they arrive at Dover Air Force Base, serving at dozens of burials at Arlington National Cemetery, standing watch over the Tomb of the Unknowns.

In coming days, for the first time since the Vietnam War, a company of soldiers from this prestigious ceremonial unit will join the battle overseas, deploying to the Horn of Africa for the fight against terrorism.

Strained by combat operations in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as commitments in South Korea and the Balkans, the Army has ordered soldiers from the unit's Bravo Company to put their dress blues in the closet and don desert camouflage battle fatigues.

The departure of Bravo Company means that the remainder of the regiment will be stretched thin for their ceremonial duties Stateside if the casualties continue to mount, or, God forbid, increase. The Old Guard have already had to cut back on the presence of a live bugler to play taps at funerals as The Greatest Generation began to pass at an increased rate. The aesthetics of a boombox at a graveside service is pretty ugly.

Unelectable

I have soaked up so much news in the last week that I'm certain that I have pixels printed on the inside of my skull. Here are some of the themes which emerge:

If we were living in a normal world, George W. Bush would be utterly unelectable. (Google-meme suggestion courtesy of Talk Left. Join the fun.)

The economy remains very soft and isn't producing jobs, while Bush has presided over a jobless recovery that has lost more jobs than any administration since Herbert Hoover. The trade deficit and a sliding dollar both threaten what little steam the economy has built up.

The situation in Iraq continues to deteriorate, there is no exit strategy and my tax dollar and yours are winding up here
U.S. Sees Evidence of Overcharging in Iraq Contract.

Via Josh Marshall, we learn that sinister Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz is doing everything he can to make sure that there are no audits of the funds being disbursed by the Coalition Provisional Authority.

There are sufficient grounds in just these examples to justify congressional investigations, independent counsel investigations and investigative reporters looking for Pulitzers to get cracking. All of this makes the Watergate break-in look like pretty small beans, doesn't it?

But what do we hear from NYT's Bob Herbert this morning? The problem is the lackluster Dems. I'll let part of the blame lie there, but Herbert is a heather to the extent that he's not beating the drum for corruption and skewed intelligence hearings. The lapdog press sure as hell isn't giving the Dems much to work with. I guess he's afraid of David Brooks calling him "shrill."

Yes, I want to hear policy positions out of my Dem candidates, but even more I want a big, red arrow pointed constantly at the corruption, the @#$%-ups, the arrogance and the policy failures of this foolish and incompetant administration. Incompetance and idiocy ought to be enough to sweep these clowns out of office.

In the Deep Midwinter

From Fr.Bojangles:

It was Fresh Aire Christmas last night in my little town. [ed. I'll try to ignore the gratuitous NPR reference.]

It is always held on the first Friday night in December. All the street decorations and the town Christmas tree are lighted and the high school band plays in a parade of fire trucks that bring Santa to his throne in the town park where he is greeted by lots of little kids who want their pictures taken and want to get in a special word with the man himself for Christmas. People are out on the streets and in the stores. Food vendors are everywhere and mouthwatering aromas are in the air all over downtown. The night is spent wandering the main street, talking with friends you meet and doing a little shopping. The newly restored train station is alight as is my church which sits in the center of town. Last night was a truly Rockwellian night, made more so by cold weather and big, fluffly snowflakes falling from the sky. You couldn’t have ordered up a more wonderful evening to kick off Christmas preparations in a small town.

As my wife and I were wandering around in the midst of all of this, as we do every year, I couldn’t help thinking about the people who are out on the streets in cities and towns across this country not because they want to be, but because they have no other choice. It was cold last night. I had on my long johns, a turtle neck and a sweater, plus my beloved Muck insulated boots, my Carhart coat and a knit cap. I was warmish as long as I kept moving, but standing still brought a deep chill and then I needed to duck into a store just to warm up. I thought about street people in this weather, bundled up in everything they can find - old clothing gotten from the Good Will supplemented with a layer of newspaper under a sweater or coat (if they are lucky enough to find one, or keep one if they have one), shoes with towels or scarves wrapped around them for warmth, and some kind of head gear, maybe. They move around, staying ahead of the police who keep them moving, mut of sight of those of us who have means. They try to find a place out of the wind or over a steam grate where they can rest. Some are lucky enough to find a bed at a shelter and maybe a hot meal. But there aren’t enough beds or meals or shelters to accomodate everyone, so another night is passed on the street, in the cold. Some are lucky enough to make it to morning.

I do my best to think of ways to help out. We support the shelter programs in towns that have them near us. I keep the church open 24 hours and the heat turned up as high as we can afford. Our thrift shop offers clothing free of charge to those in need. We have a feeding program for the hungry in concert with two other churches in town, so that folks can have a hot meal at least once a week during the month. This is good stuff. Many of you are involved in such things and this is a good thing. But it is easy to forget what these people feel and are going through if all we do is provide a place and serve a meal. It is important, occasionally, to ask yourself, feeling the chill of the evening when you are walking the dog on a snowy night, "What if I had to spend the night out here? What would that be like?" That’s all you need to do. Look around and see if you can find a spot that might be suitable for you to sleep. It keeps the plight of the homeless in your consciousness and plants a seed or two which might grow into some kind of solution to the problem which you may have some gift to resolve and didn’t think about. At the very least, we develop and maintain an empathy with those much less fortunate than ourselves, who can’t do anything but endure. It reminds us of the birth of a son to a young couple, very long ago, who found shelter on a cold winter’s night in a freezing, drafty, stable. As we prepare, in the warmth of our homes, for the celebration of his birth, let us remember the circumstances of that birth, feel the chill for a moment, and remember that he was born so that we might come to know the troubles our brothers and sisters face, and find the compassion and the wisdom to do something about it.

From Real Live Preacher:

As the day drew to a close, the unthinkable happened. Mary went into labor. For a couple of hours she was able to stay silent. She tried to tell herself the pain was something else, anything but the baby. Then her denial was swept away by waves of sharp pain that ripped through her midsection. This little boy was coming, whether the world was ready or not. Mary’s whimpers became screams. She writhed on the floor, babbling nonsense and pleading for help.

The people in the Kataluma that day were mostly men. There were a couple of younger women, but they had no idea what to do. As Joseph was heading back to check on Mary, he heard her screams from out in the alley and rushed inside. All the travelers had backed up against the walls and were watching Mary, who was clutching her belly in agony.

He was utterly exhausted, but Joseph found the strength to scoop Mary up in his arms and carry her into the street. The sun was almost down and Joseph had only one card to play. The Wildman. He carried Mary down the street, kicking on doors and screaming at the top of his lungs. “Someone help us! Please, we're having a baby!”

No one seemed to hear them. Darkness had fallen, and people were shut safely in their homes. Joseph staggered down the street, but he had been running on panic and adrenaline for for most of the day, and exhaustion was setting in. Finally he sank to his knees and laid Mary on the ground.

This was their moment of greatest need. Joseph sat on his knees with Mary’s head in his lap. With a voice that was failing, he cried out to God.

"Help us, Adonai, Father in Heaven. You sent angels once...please. Help us now. We are Joseph and Mary, and we have no one to turn to but you. We have nothing, but only you."

Are these myths, stories which are estranged from us, out of place and time? I think not. These are the stories about what makes us human and which allow us to become divine. We are both. We kneel in the details of our human story, and on our knees find divinity.

Kristol Fantasy

Oh, Waiter, I'll have what ever that Mr. Kristol is drinking...

Contracts for Iraq: Reverse the Pentagon's Decision

by William Kristol and Robert Kagan
12/11/2003 12:00:00 AM

President Bush, we suspect, is going to overrule the Pentagon's attempt to exclude from the bidding for Iraq reconstruction contracts certain countries that have opposed U.S. policy in Iraq. He might as well do it sooner rather than later, so as to minimize the diplomatic damage done by the Pentagon's heavy-handed and counterproductive action.
We hold no brief for the Chirac, Schroeder, or Putin governments. We are also very much in favor of finding ways to work more closely with other governments -- such as those of Britain, Spain and Poland -- who have courageously stood with us, and who hold the promise of continuing to be more helpful to us. We have even been critical of the Bush Administration for a certain lack of imagination in finding ways to work constructively with these friendly governments. But this particular effort by the Pentagon to reward friends and punish enemies is stupid, and should be abandoned.

A deviously smart American administration would have quietly distributed contracts for rebuilding Iraq as it saw fit, without any announced policy of discrimination. At the end of the day, it would be clear that opponents of American policy didn't fare too well in the bidding process. Message delivered, but with a certain subtlety.

A more clever American administration would have thrown a contract or two to a couple of those opponents, to a German firm, for instance, as a way of wooing at least the business sectors in a country where many businessmen do want to strengthen ties with the United States.

A truly wise American administration would have opened the bidding to all comers, regardless of their opposition to the war -- as a way of buying those countries into the Iraq effort, building a little goodwill for the future, and demonstrating to the world a little magnanimity.

But instead of being smart, clever, or magnanimous, the Bush Administration has done a dumb thing. The announcement of a policy of discriminating against French, German, and Russian firms has made credible European charges of vindictive pettiness and general disregard for the opinion of even fellow liberal democracies. More important, it has made former Secretary of State James Baker's very important effort to get these countries, among others, to offer debt relief for the new government of Iraq almost impossible. This is to say nothing of other areas where we need to work with these governments.

This decision is a blunder. We trust it will be reversed.

Not a snowball's chance in hell, Bill. The Bushies never admit a mistake. My lord, Bill, you actually continue to think that they are capable of learning from their mistakes? You haven't been paying attention, young sir. But your earnestness is kind of appealing.

Electability

I'm toggling between CNN and a Brookings Institution briefing on the SCOTUS campaign finance reform decision on the TV. Listening to the usual pretty, empty heads at CNN repeat all of the CW, the media myth, about Howard Dean and Al Gore got my back up. One of the memes I heard repeated endlessly is that White Bread Howard has no support among black voters. I thought, well, the question is worth asking and then realized, "it's Thursday." That means the new issue of The Black Commentator is up. At the top of the site was this new commentary, Howard Dean’s December 7 speech is the most important statement on race in American politics by a mainstream white politician in nearly 40 years.

I don't believe that black people, even politically liberal blacks, are a monolith, but Peter and Glen, who write most of TBC, probably speak for a lot of the black electorate, particularly that part of it that pays close attention to politics. Therefore, I was pretty floored by this article.

Nothing remotely comparable has been said by anyone who might become or who has been President of the United States since Lyndon Johnson’s June 4, 1965 affirmative action address to the graduating class at Howard University.

For four decades, the primary political project of the Republican Party has been to transform itself into the White Man’s Party. Not only in the Deep South, but also nationally, the GOP seeks to secure a majority popular base for corporate governance through coded appeals to white racism. The success of this GOP project has been the central fact of American politics for two generations - reaching its fullest expression in the Bush presidency. Yet a corporate covenant with both political parties has prohibited the mere mention of America’s core contemporary political reality: the constant, routine mobilization of white voters through the imagery and language of race.

Last Sunday, Howard Dean broke that covenant:

"In 1968, Richard Nixon won the White House. He did it in a shameful way - by dividing Americans against one another, stirring up racial prejudices and bringing out the worst in people.

"They called it the "Southern Strategy," and the Republicans have been using it ever since. Nixon pioneered it, and Ronald Reagan perfected it, using phrases like "racial quotas" and "welfare queens" to convince white Americans that minorities were to blame for all of America's problems.

"The Republican Party would never win elections if they came out and said their core agenda was about selling America piece by piece to their campaign contributors and making sure that wealth and power is concentrated in the hands of a few.

"To distract people from their real agenda, they run elections based on race, dividing us, instead of uniting us."

Dean’s Columbia, South Carolina, statement is equal in political import to Lyndon Johnson’s framing of the need for affirmative action, in 1965. Prior to Johnson’s Howard University address, no sitting or potential President since Reconstruction had drawn the straight line that connects racism and poverty:

The article has a thoughtful analysis of the complex dynamics of the Dem primary race, including the dynamic between Dean, Kucinich and Sharpton for the black voter: they'll vote for Sharpton in the primary, Dean in the general, and Dean gets a room to carve out a new anticorporatist "third way" with their presence defining the edges.

Where does this leave Al Sharpton and Dennis Kucinich? Exactly as they are, preaching the same social democratic, anti-racist, pro-peace message as before, for as long as their energies can sustain them. Dean’s political leap would not have been possible in the absence of Sharpton’s energetic Black candidacy and Kucinich’s principled, progressive white voice from the Left. At this historic juncture they dare not go anywhere. Dean has picked up the torch that Sharpton and Kucinich have been carrying and they must stay in the race to make sure he doesn’t set it down. By persevering in pressing the Left edges of the Democratic envelope, the “Two Civilized Men” created the political space for Dean to make his historic break. Although we cannot expect either candidate to rejoice in the frontrunner’s actions, Dean’s leftward march is also their victory over the DLC, and they must defend it - against Dean himself and his newfound allies, if need be.

The task in this election is to build a center to left coalition that is based on economic common ground rather than racial divisions. As a poor white, I have poverty in common with every other poor person, regardless of color. I have the same worries about health insurance, falling real salaries and rising corporate profits at the expense if wages. Trade, offshoring,tax policy, healthcare and adequate employment are issues for all of us who do not belong to the investor class.

I don't pretend to know the "black experience," I'm about as white bread as they come, but I know the "poor experience." And I'm grateful to Peter and Glen for helping to understand how their experience frames their understanding of the issues.

Making Friends

Canada eligible for sub-contracts in Iraq

[Outgoing Canadian Prime Minister Jean] Chrétien told a news conference that Bush had called him Thursday morning and told him to ignore reports in the media that Canada will not be eligible contracts in the rebuilding of Iraq.

"And he told me that the mention of Canada - that we were to be excluded from economic activities in Iraq - were not appropriate," Chrétien said. And he was telling me basically not to worry, so I said thank you."

Chrétien's comments were interpreted as referring to the $18.8 billion US reconstruction contracts.

The White House has come under fire for saying it will shut out countries that refused to take part in the U.S.-led war on Iraq from bidding on the lucrative contracts.

Bush explained later Thursday that he was was referring to sub-contracts in the rebuilding of Iraq.

Compare, contrast or play or play whatever GRE game you wish between the CBC story above and what Josh Marshall has dug up on the James Baker "debt restructuring" mission. Josh's source confirms what we said here last weekend: Baker's portfolio includes every possible political and financial tool to make the Iraq mess go away in time for the election. Cheney, Rummy, Rice, Powell have all been swept aside in the hope that Baker can con enough countries into buying in (at great taxpayer cost, no doubt) to the Iraq war so that we can pull our troops out.

There is a problem, however. The hardnosed position taken by the Pentagon in the CBC story isn't going to do much to soften world opinion. Secondly, those governments who choose not to send troops to Iraq all have publics which are solidly against the war. The first Canadian, French or German soldier that returned in a "transfer tube" would call to governments of Paul Martin, Jacques Chirac or Gerhard Schroeder to fall. Baker may have carte blanche to empty the treasury, but that doesn't mean that he's going to be able to buy Bush's way out of this one.

...And the Lying Liars Who Tell Them

Naming Names

Last Friday, the president held a fundraiser at the Hyatt Regency in Baltimore. Just before the event was scheduled to begin, an Arab American waiter who has worked at the hotel for seven years was asked by his manager: "Is your name Mohamad?" After waiter Mohamad I. Pharoan, a naturalized U.S. citizen, answered affirmatively, he was immediately escorted out of the building. Last Saturday a spokesman, John Gill, for the Secret Service said definitively: "I'm not sure where the issue lies - all I can tell you is it's not with the Secret Service. The Secret Service was not involved." There was only one problem with that explanation: it wasn't true. Yesterday, Gill told a different story: "Mr. Pharoan was dismissed when the Secret Service learned he was not among the employees that we were aware were scheduled to work the event." But, according to Gill, Pharoan's dismissal by the Secret Service was "in no way related to his ethnic or religious background." But, as it turns out, the revised explanation also seems to be a fabrication. According to Pharoan he was informed by the Hyatt Regency's security staff that his name was given to the Secret Service for background checks. Pharoan said that he was told he was "one of the employees allowed to work that day" and that when he arrived his "name was checked off." The Hyatt Regency general manager, Robert Steele, told his employees that "the hotel had merely followed the Secret Service's orders."

This reminds me of the British Airways flap after Thanksgiving: the culture of the administration is just to lie about everything.

Cheap Labor Conservatism

CNN just reported that the number who have quit is now closer to half.

Report: A third of Iraq army has quit

Thursday, December 11, 2003 Posted: 1535 GMT (11:35 PM HKT)

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Efforts to create a new Iraqi army to help take over the country's security have suffered a setback with the resignations of a third of the soldiers trained so far, Pentagon officials have told The Associated Press.

Touted as a key to Iraq's future, the army's first 700-man battalion lost some 250 men over recent weeks as they were preparing to begin operations this month, the AP reported officials saying Wednesday.

"We are aware that a third ... has apparently resigned, and we are looking into that in order to ensure that we can recruit and retain high-quality people for a new Iraqi army," Lt. Col. James Cassella, a Pentagon spokesman, told the AP.

It was unclear exactly why they abandoned their new jobs, the AP reports, although some had complained that the starting salary -- $60 a month for privates -- was too low, officials said. Others may have feared threats from insurgents who have targeted Iraqis cooperating with occupation authorities, a Defense Department official told the AP.

60 bucks a month to risk your life as a known collaborator? The whole idea of "Iraqification" is a joke until (read: never) the indigenious "civil defense" and "police" forces can be protected from attack by fellow Iraqis.

Cognitive Dissonance

Bush Seeks Help of Allies Barred From Iraq Deals

By DAVID E. SANGER and DOUGLAS JEHL

White House officials declined to say how Mr. Bush explained the Pentagon policy to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, President Jacques Chirac of France and Chancellor Gerhard Schröder of Germany. France and Russia were two of the largest creditors of Saddam Hussein's government. But officials hinted, by the end of the day, that Mr. Baker might be able to show flexibility to countries that write down Iraqi debt.

"I can't imagine that if you are asking to do stuff for Iraq that this is going to help," a senior State Department official said late Wednesday.

A senior administration official described Mr. Bush as "distinctly unhappy" about dealing with foreign leaders who had just learned of their exclusion from the contracts.
Under the Pentagon rules, only companies whose countries are on the American list of "coalition nations" are eligible to compete for the prime contracts, though they could act as subcontractors. The result is that the Solomon Islands, Uganda and Samoa may compete for the contracts, but China, whose premier just left the White House with promises of an expanded trade relationship, is excluded, along with Israel.

Several of Mr. Bush's aides wondered why the administration had not simply adopted a policy of giving preference to prime contracts to members of the coalition, without barring any countries outright.

"What we did was toss away our leverage," one senior American diplomat said. "We could have put together a policy that said, `The more you help, the more contracts you may be able to gain.' " Instead, the official said, "we found a new way to alienate them."

Unserious. The Bushies think that they can just make all of this up as they go along and it will have no consequences. Piss off the major Iraqi creditor nations and then send Jim Baker in to clean up the mess.

What is it with these people? They wouldn't be able to run a Domino's Pizza franchise (and I mean that as a compliment to those of you who run Domino's franchises), they've wrecked our economy, our alliances and there is even a discussion that suggests that Bush can win next year?

The guy has an obvious incapacity to find competant people to staff his show, I have yet to find an initiative which is right on the merits or the politics (Medicare? don't make me laugh) and there is any serious talk that Bush can win next year? On what planet?

Robbery and Assassination

Europe to Examine U.S. Policy Limiting Bids for Iraq Contracts

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Published: December 10, 2003

Filed at 12:56 p.m. ET

BRUSSELS, Belgium (AP) -- The European Union said Wednesday it would examine whether the United States violates world trade rules with its decision to bar countries that opposed its war in Iraq from bidding for $18.6 billion worth reconstruction contracts.

France, Germany and other U.S. allies were angered and surprised by the Pentagon decision -- which forbids bids by countries with no troops in Iraq -- seen as a slap after efforts to patch up the trans-Atlantic divisions over the Iraq war.

***snip***

The EU executive body, the European Commission, said it would study whether the order violates World Trade Organization rules.

``We are asking the U.S. to provide us with information so we can see whether or not their commitments with regard to the WTO have been respected,'' said Arancha Gonzalez, trade spokeswoman at the European Commission.

She said the 26 contracts listed on the Pentagon Web site would be examined to see what they cover and whether national security exemptions would apply.

Let's be clear about what's going on here. This move on the part of the Pentagon, backed by the White House, is about punishing the allies more than it is about rewarding the Coalition partners. The EU has figured out that this administration only works by threats and punishment and they succeeded in getting Bush to back down on the steel tarriffs by threatening commodity tarriffs in industries which would have disproportionally affected the "battleground" states, a politically cagey move on "old Europe's" part. Now they've put Bush on notice that they are looking for other forms of economic retaliation. I hope this works, because non-competative contracts are bad for you and me, who end up paying the bills.

Viz: High Payments to Halliburton for Fuel in Iraq

By DON VAN NATTA Jr.

Published: December 10, 2003

he United States government is paying the Halliburton Company an average of $2.64 a gallon to import gasoline and other fuel to Iraq from Kuwait, more than twice what others are paying to truck in Kuwaiti fuel, government documents show.

Halliburton, which has the exclusive United States contract to import fuel into Iraq, subcontracts the work to a Kuwaiti firm, government officials said. But Halliburton gets 26 cents a gallon for its overhead and fee, according to documents from the Army Corps of Engineers.

The Halliburton spokesperson flaks a line of yak about how expensive and dangerous and difficult it is to truck petroleum products into Iraq, but what this is really about is highway robbery.

Heads-up note: Sy Hersh, the investigative bright light of The New Yorker (and who had another terrific piece in last week's edition, documenting the deteriorating conditions in Iraq and the creation of a covert operation assassination program in Iraq) will be on Wolf Blitzer, 5PM Eastern.

Just Stupid

Martin says ban on Iraq rebuilding 'difficult to fathom'

TORONTO - The White House defended its policy Wednesday to shut out Canada and other countries that refused to take part in the U.S.-led war on Iraq from bidding on $18.6 billion US in reconstruction contracts.

"Prime contracts for reconstruction funded by U.S. taxpayer dollars should go to the Iraqi people and those countries who are working with the United States on the difficult task of helping to build a free, democratic and prosperous Iraq," White House spokesman Scott McClellan said Wednesday.

"I find it very difficult to fathom," incoming [Canadian] Prime Minister Paul Martin told a news conference Wednesday, adding that Canada has pledged $300 million in aid to Iraq. Deputy prime minister John Manley said the ban makes it "difficult for us to give further money for the reconstruction of Iraq."

Martin said the issue should be about doing what is best for the people of Iraq, not about who gets contracts.

"There is a huge amount of suffering going on there (Iraq) and I think it is the responsibility of every country to participate in developing it," Martin said.

The Pentagon said late Tuesday that only the 63 countries involved in the coalition will be eligible for the work. That means France, Russia, China and Germany will also be excluded.A Pentagon official told CBC Radio News: "if you want the work, you need to be inside."

U.S. Deputy Defence Secretary Paul Wolfowitz said in a memo released Tuesday that the ban is "necessary for the protection of the essential security interests of the United States to limit competition for the prime contracts of these procurements to companies from the United States, Iraq, coalition partners and force-contributing nations."

Speaking in Paris, Deputy Prime Minister John Manley called the U.S. policy "shocking" and "unacceptable." Manley told Canadian Press it is inappropriate for the U.S. to accept $250 million in Canadian aid for Iraq, while banning Canadian companies from bidding on other contracts.

As foreign policy, this is infantile petulance, more swinging dick than strategy. Oh, I suppose it appeals to some part of Bush's "base," the knee-jerk voters who enjoy saying "take that, Canada, you pussies," but for the long haul, pissing off the rest of the world even further is stupid.

All this does is demonstrate that the Bushies aren't grown up enough to go out and play with the rest of the world. We could have undone some of the ill-will we generated earlier this year by being open-handed and thoughtful with these reconstruction contracts, but now we're letting a petulant Deputy Secretary of Defense set foreign policy.

Miserable Failure

Back on Saturday, I blogged that James Baker's appointment as Ambassador of Iraqi debt was going to have a whole lot more implications than sorting out the creditors. That was on Washington gut instinct rather than anything that I could point to directly. However, with yesterday's Pentagon directive barring French, German and Russian firms from bidding for Iraqi reconstruction contracts, and those three nations are Iraq's largest creditors, it's clear that there is more than meets the immediate eye going on with Baker's portfolio. Even Josh Marshall is on it now. The fact that Bush is sending in the family fixer is a tacet admission that everything we've done on the policy side up until now has been a failure.

Bringing in the Sheaves

Want to know about the USC "527" organizations, essentially PACs which don't have any spending or fundraising limits? Here is an In These Times story which gives you the basics.

And advisory: it looks like the Dems have gotten out in front of this trend for this election cycle, but it won't always be so. The Repubs will learn how to play this game before the last dog dies. And they always have more money than we do.

Please hit the tip jar up right, if you can. We are able to provide this service to you right now because we are not otherwise gainfully employed, and this is pretty frightening. We'd like to put the paycheck back on our shoulders, but until that happens (another dozen resumes go out in the morning) our Christmas is going to be coming from you. Help if you can, accept our prayers and best wishes if you are in the same shape as we are.

Revenge of the Seniors

Go, gray panthers!

Seniors attack Baucus bill

By Allison Farrell of the Standard State Bureau

HELENA — U.S. Sen. Max Baucus, who worked doggedly on the new Medicare prescription drug benefit that passed Congress last week, spent his lunch hour Friday defending the bill in front of a hostile crowd of senior citizens.

Baucus, one of two ranking Democrats chosen by the Republican Congress to help hammer out prescription drug legislation, was in Montana late this week to explain the massive legislation to crowds in Great Falls, Helena and Billings.

The group of 50 seniors he encountered at Helena's Neighborhood Center Friday was the most contentious crowd he has experienced yet, his aides said.

‘‘I think this Medicare bill is a big farce,'' June Williams of Helena told Baucus during a brief comment period. ‘‘This is a sham bill that is being pushed down the throats of we seniors.''

Baucus acknowledged that the bill is not perfect, but said the bill is better than nothing.

‘‘You have to remember this is a compromise,'' Baucus said. ‘‘You can't let perfect be the enemy of the good. You can never get perfect.''

This drug bill will give Montana's 145,000 seniors a prescription drug discount card in spring 2004 that could reduce their out-of-pocket drug costs by 15 percent. While most Medicare recipients will have to pay a $30 annual fee for the card, the state's 46,000 low-income subscribers will receive a free card loaded with $600.

Democrats who act like Republicans are no better than Republicans, but we could also have some party discipline which would stop bad legislation like this, rather than looking out for narrow personal advantage. Oops, that came back to bite you, didn't it, Senator?

The Earth Moved

Internet surfing is really absorbing. The local 5 PM news just told me that we had an earthquake an hour ago Neither the cats nor I noticed anything, but the local media are reporting a fair 'mount of shaking going on even in downtown DC.

Ora et Labora

After the Democratic debate this evening, if you have cable you can go here to see how one community of contemporary Cistercian monks support themselves (and maybe order a Christmas present or two.) Roker on the Road runs at 9 EST tonight.

The rest of the air times:

December 10, 2003 1:00 AM ET/PT
December 21, 2003 6:00 PM ET/PT
December 23, 2003 9:00 PM ET/PT
December 24, 2003 1:00 AM ET/PT

Give Peace a Chance

All of the news out of Iraq, Afghanistan and the Pentagon is just horrible today, so it was a relief to find this op-ed in the IHT:

The constituency for peace grows

Karl F. Inderfurth IHT

Are the stars moving into a proper alignment for India and Pakistan to begin to address seriously their long-standing and often bloody dispute over Kashmir? Perhaps so. .The often deadly machine gun and artillery duels have stopped along the Line of Control, the military line that divides Kashmir. Pakistan recently proposed a cease-fire; India responded favorably and suggested that it be extended to cover their entire border, including the remote Siachen Glacier, which has been a frozen battleground since 1984.

.It is also encouraging that the two sides have agreed to resume commercial air fights. Train service will soon follow suit. India severed these links two years ago to express its strong displeasure with Pakistan over the terrorist attack on the Indian Parliament on Dec. 13, 2001.

.The cease-fire and the resumption of travel links are the latest steps the two nuclear-armed neighbors have taken to improve relations, dating back to the offer in the spring by Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee of India to extend "a hand of friendship" to Pakistan. India followed that by announcing a dozen proposals to normalize ties with Pakistan, including an immediate rescheduling of cricket and other sporting contests.

.India also announced that it was prepared to talk with Kashmiri separatist leaders about the state's future, and designated a senior envoy, Deputy Prime Minister L.K. Advani, to head the effort. .President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan now says his country is ready to withdraw its 50,000 troops from Pakistan-held Kashmir if India pulls out its forces from the portion of Kashmir it controls. "The steps both the countries have taken recently are just a beginning toward establishing a long-lasting peace in South Asia," Musharraf says.

The world hasn't come all the way back from the nuclear brink between these volatile rivals, but this represents considerable progress from where they were last summer.

Angels and Devils

Examining the Demonic in Western Monotheism

I'm adding this book to my Christmas list:

Cleveland - The Pilgrim Press is pleased to announce the publication of
The Demonic Turn
The Power of Religion to Inspire or Restrain Violence
Lloyd Steffen
320 pages - 6" x 9"
Religion/Ethics/Theology
ISBN 0-8298-1563-5
Paper
$20.00 USA/$32.00 CAN
November 2003 Publication
World Rights

Religion is powerful and religion is dangerous. Author and ethics professor Lloyd Steffen follows this insight as he explores the demonic dynamic in the dominant monotheistic traditions of the West: Christianity, Islam, and Judaism.

"In these pages I will argue that people are religious the way they are because of the choices they make about how to be religious....People are religious in particular ways, and how they construct and practice religion rests, finally, on a fundamental moral turn to be religious either in a life-affirming way or demonically."
- from the Preface

Examining the differences between concepts of God related to ultimacy and absolutism, Steffen names absolutism as the source of destructive, life-defying religion, explaining that it is the "central reason and the main cause for religion becoming dangerous and turning demonic." Part I of the book explores the power and danger of religion as well as two options for being religious. Part II explores religion and the restraint of violence as it looks at the pacifist option, the case of holy war, and the case of just war.

Allen Brill has an interesting discussion of a BBC interview with London's Chief Rabbi today. Rabbi Jonathan Sacks just received the Grawemeyer award (theology's Pulitzer) for his new book on the relationship of religious tolerence to peace (sounds like a no-brainer to me.) Among the points he makes: while we need to keep governing and religion apart, politics is always going to touch on religion, it is part of what shapes our imagination, our worldview, our values. Developing an appreciation for the genuine differences between faiths means digging down ever deeper into our own tradition and questioning our own assumptions. Comparative religion without introspection is, like faith without works, a dead subject.

Fire in the Belly

The New Republic Online is running a feature which is at least entertaining and sometimes insightful: they are engaging their regular columnists in the TNR Online Primary and examining the various stands taken by each of the candidates.

Yesterday, Michelle Cottle put up a bit of commentary on John Kerry's f-word interview with the Village Voice which I found collected my thoughts on the subject nicely:

Candidate: John Kerry
Category: General Likeability
Grade: A

Nothing like a little gratuitous profanity to make a famously aloof, uptight jerk of a candidate seem more human. Wait. My characterization is inaccurate. Kerry's profane critique in Rolling Stone of the Bush administration's Iraq policy was not really gratuitous at all. It was pointedly, perhaps even passionately, on the mark. Bush does seem to be royally fucking things up in Iraq. And if there's ever a situation where the incautious, ultracaustic f-word is justified---and, let's face it, in matters of war there often is--this is just such a situation.

Better yet, when White House chief of Staff Andy Card went whining and sniveling to Wolf Blitzer that Kerry had offended Americans' finer sensibilities and owed someone an apology, the Kerry campaign stood its ground. "Kerry doesn't mince words when it comes to politicians who put ideological recklessness ahead of American troops," the candidate's spokeswoman countered. Ouch. A direct hit. As for the morally offended Card's complaint that "that's not the John Kerry that I know"--I have to agree, Andy. But I like this one a helluva lot better.

John Kerry is a smart, thoughtful politician, but a lousy campaigner, this little outburst was the first real sign of passion out of him so far. Would Kerry be a better president than the incumbent? Any of the Dems would be, my cat would be. Let's see if he can demonstate a little of this kind of fire in the debate tonight.

Omnium Gatherum

This is going to be another heavy news day, and I've got a spate of errands to run, so I'll try to pick up the threads as I can. The highlights:

Escalating, coordinated attacks in Iraq;

Downtown suicide bomber terrorism comes to Moscow;

Al Gore's motives in endorsing Howard Dean are being psychically probed and celebrated or condemned; and Howard Dean is being probed, condemned or congratulated;

Shorter New York Times: We don't have enough flu vaccine, and it's the wrong kind, but we should distribute more of it anyway because it is better than nothing.

And here is Juan Cole to start the day off rather darkly, on the "Boykin" strategy in Iraq:

Mind you, I support US friendship for Israel, though I regret the Bush administration's obsequiousness toward the bully Ariel Sharon (who should be in jail for war crimes). But like Bush senior in the Gulf War, I think the US cannot allow its alliance with Israel to interfere with policy toward the Arab world, where the US also has key allies and friends. The tragic thing is that the Sharon government's Iron Fist policies do not work (if by "work" you mean "lead to resolution of conflict and make people safer"). Palestinian opponents of the Great Israeli Land Theft continue to grow like kudzu, and terrorism has not been stopped. Even the former heads of Shin Bet, Israeli internal security, have publicly come out to critique Sharon and say it does not work. So now is the time for the US military to suddenly adopt these tactics? Ed Blanche of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London makes this point in a recent Daily Star op-ed.

I have a sinking feeling that Bush just lost the war on terror.

Use Comments to debate any and all and to speculate on Dean's VP pick.

Fools and Knaves

Paul Woodward, one of the "Brilliant Aggregators" over in the links at right, has begun providing commentary, original content at his wonderful site, The War in Context. Paul's site is one of the first I check every morning to get a feel for where the news is going to move each day and to find the really important stories. He has a very sharp eye. A blogger working the news quickly needs good sources. The service he provides is invaluable and I urge you to add him to your bookmarks if you are following the war news seriously.

His essay today on American Exceptionalism and how it effects the news coverage of such outrages as the bombing in Afghanistan which killed 9 children over the weekend should be required reading for every thoughtful progressive.

The lackey media, especially CNN, have drunk the Koolaid that Americans can really do no wrong, and even if we do, we didn't mean it, so it doesn't count. This is a line of thought which goes back to Manifest Destiny in the early 19th. Century, and is a theological descendent of the Calvinist doctrine of "election," you can know who the saints are because they live favored lives. This is a line of thinking which has many dark sides, including the tendency to hide bad news like the widening gap between rich and poor, north and south (globally), and a tendency to self-congratulation. It isn't attractive, and the extreme caricature of this American theme which is the current administration, is one of the things which alienates the rest of the world.

The ability to be self-critical is a hallmark of maturity, something which seems to be lacking in the corridors of power these days. Theological self-assurance is as frightening in the Theologian-in-Chief as it is in Osama bin Laden.

One of the things my theology professors instilled in me: theology is an approximation, an analogy not unlike poetry, an art rather than a science. Once you are sure you have it all figured out, you have become a fool or a knave or both.

Spirituality

This is something I've wanted to write about for some time. Libby Brooks is surveying the situation in the UK--the trendlines are a little different on this side of the pond--but there is a similar movement in American culture.
Spiritual tourism

Religion must be the new shopping - Cosmo has appointed a spirituality editor

Libby Brooks
Monday December 8, 2003
The Guardian

A reframing of what is sacred is no bad thing. But is the urban middle class's determination to be Christian/Muslim/Taoist all in the same prayer really leading to increased dialogue between faiths? And does the democratisation of religion have to mean it dumbing down too?

As religious orthodoxy fails to accommodate contemporary mores, there is a case to be made for encouraging a new spiritual dimension that offers moral structure without stricture. But is this it? There is minimal intellectual or moral rigour to "bespoke belief" that knits together the cosiest aspects of the systems on offer and ignores any broader inconsistencies.

This is not to say that it's lightweight not to be wrestling with cosmology. A pragmatic faith that struggles with the big questions is far more appealing than one that claims to offer the big answers. But isn't there a danger of culling the benefits of spirituality without considering the attendant responsibilities? What does crystal healing or a quick prayer to an ill-defined god teach us about community or kindness? You can't turn belief on and off like a tap - it should weave itself through a whole life rather than be seized upon to plug the gaps.

The call to "love thy neighbour as thyself", wrote Freud, is a fundamental precept of civilised life. But it works against those things that render us imperfectly human - the reason of self-interest and personal autonomy. Perhaps it's time to question the civilising potential of an individuated belief system that only picks the soft centres from the chocolate box.

Brooks doesn't quite come out and say the hard truths about this "I'm spiritual but not religious" meme. I have to live with the fallout of this cultural artifact in my spiritual direction practice: it is nothing more than putting a vaguely high-toned cover over a desire to feel good about oneself. It requires no self-sacrifice or effort, intellectual or moral. If you want self-esteem, then perform estimable acts.

Duke Divinity School moral theologian Stanley Hauerwas, one of the most respected and controversial people working in that discipline today, wrote that the core value of your belief structure is a willingness to suffer for your principles, and insist that others suffer for them, as well. Buffet spirituality attempts to get rid of suffering by not holding itself accountable to tradition or community.

Chickens, Meet Roost

Stuntwoman to sue Schwarzenegger for 'dirty tricks'

December 9, 2003

Arnold Schwarzenegger is being sued by a woman who claims he launched a dirty tricks campaign against her on the eve of his election as California Governor, it emerged today.

Stunt woman Rhonda Miller was one of a number of women who claimed to have been groped by the actor-turned politician.

But the day before Californians went to the polls Schwarzenegger's office allegedly issued an advisory to the media, detailing information about a convicted criminal called Rhonda Miller.

Within hours Miller was branded a criminal on news programmes.
Only days after the election, with Schwarzenegger victorious, did it emerge that Miller had no criminal record.

The information alluded to by the Schwarzenegger campaign team, and carried on a law enforcement website, was about a different woman.

Gloria Allred, a California lawyer who appeared alongside Miller when she made her groping claims, was holding a press conference later today to announce the lawsuit.

At the briefing she would "announce a filing of a libel lawsuit against Governor Schwarzenegger and his campaign committee", her office said.

She said in a statement: "On October 6, 2003, Ms Miller held a news conference with Ms Allred in which Ms Miller alleged that she had been sexually harassed by Mr Schwarzenegger when she worked as a stunt woman in a movie with him.

CNN is breaking this story right now, but I didn't find anything in the CA papers yet, though I find it odd that the SMH would scoop the LA Times.

Rhonda Miller is incredibly brave, and she has an extraordinarily tough attorney representing her. Look for a smear campaign out of the Gropinator's circle, dirty tricks, legal obfuscation and intimidation. Ms. Miller also runs the risk of being blacklisted in an industry where Ahnold is very powerful.

I've been on the receiving end of employer sexual harrassment and it is very hard to fight. Being able to recast this as a libel suit makes it much more winnable.

Breaking News

It's not up on the website yet, but CNN is reporting that Al Gore will endorse Howard Dean tonight. Developing...

UPDATE: Here's the AP Story:

Gore to Endorse Howard Dean, Sources Say

Dec 8, 4:54 PM (ET)

By RON FOURNIER

MANCHESTER, N.H. (AP) - Former Vice President Al Gore intends to endorse Howard Dean for the Democratic presidential nomination, a dramatic move that could cement Dean's position in the fight for the party's nod.

Gore, who lost to President Bush in the disputed 2000 election, has agreed to endorse Dean in Harlem in New York City on Tuesday and then travel with the former Vermont governor to Iowa, sight of the Jan. 19 caucuses which kickoff the nominating process, said a Democratic source close to Gore.

The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Dean will return from Iowa in time for Tuesday night's Democratic debate in New Hampshire.

Posted by Melanie at 05:06 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

On a Lighter Note

The always excellent Ship of Fools has posted their Twelve Days of Kitchmas shopping guide. We need a little lightness around here. The "Gadgets for God" section is also good for a smile.

While you are visiting the Ship, be sure to drop in at my favorite feature, Mystery Worshipper.

Ship of Fools will be added to the blogroll next time I can talk myself into wading into the template code.

Language, Religion, Politics

I'm thinking about Matt Zemeck's thoughtful Comment on my "Fourth Gen Warfare" post below. Matt's correct, as Amy Sullivan and I have noted earlier, progressives are going to have to learn to gently use the language of faith in an inclusive manner in order to win back the Presidency.

It is in this context I introduce an email I got from a correspondant yesterday, particularly since the DeLay/Bush/Rove Republican axis have taken to using the English language in such a way that we've all been transported to Bizarro World. My emailer writes

I see by my lunchtime reading that John Kerry has got himself into hot water regarding his choice of vocabulary.

Author Tony Campolo, who makes a regular circuit as a chapel speaker on Christian college campuses, for a time used this provocation to make a point. "The United Nations reports that over ten thousand people starve to death each day, and most of you don't give a shit. However, what is more tragic is that most of you are more concerned about the fact that I just said a bad word than you are about the fact that ten thousand people are going to die today." The responses proved his point: in nearly every case Tony got a letter from the chaplain or president of the college protesting his foul language. The letters never mentioned world hunger."

World hunger. AIDS. A world of "peace and freedom." All words, not backed up by actions.

In March of this year, Time magazine reported that a year earlier George W. Bush said, in front of a group of senators: "Fuck Saddam. We're taking him out." Where was the uproar then?

Jeanne D'Arc has weighed in, as well.

Pharmacology

When I first skimmed this article, I found it quite alarming until I thought about it a little further. The fact is that, everytime we feel there is something wrong enough with us that we are moved to go to the drug store and pick up an over-the-counter drug, or go to the doctor for a prescription, we are taking on a research project. We and our doctors learn by trial and error which drugs will work for which conditions or illnesses with us.

Allen Roses, the doctor quoted in the article, is on the cutting of "pharmogenesis," an emerging science which attempts to match drugs to the specific genetics of patients for maximum therapeutic effectiveness. This is probably a good thing, but, like many, I have some real worries about what happens when our individual genotypes are mapped and available to employers or insurers.

Glaxo chief: Our drugs do not work on most patients

08 December 2003

A senior executive with Britain's biggest drugs company has admitted that most prescription medicines do not work on most people who take them.
Allen Roses, worldwide vice-president of genetics at GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), said fewer than half of the patients prescribed some of the most expensive drugs actually derived any benefit from them.

It is an open secret within the drugs industry that most of its products are ineffective in most patients but this is the first time that such a senior drugs boss has gone public. His comments come days after it emerged that the NHS drugs bill has soared by nearly 50 per cent in three years, rising by £2.3bn a year to an annual cost to the taxpayer of £7.2bn. GSK announced last week that it had 20 or more new drugs under development that could each earn the company up to $1bn (£600m) a year.

Dr Roses, an academic geneticist from Duke University in North Carolina, spoke at a recent scientific meeting in London where he cited figures on how well different classes of drugs work in real patients.

Drugs for Alzheimer's disease work in fewer than one in three patients, whereas those for cancer are only effective in a quarter of patients. Drugs for migraines, for osteoporosis, and arthritis work in about half the patients, Dr Roses said. Most drugs work in fewer than one in two patients mainly because the recipients carry genes that interfere in some way with the medicine, he said.

Fourth Generation Warfare

This is a terrific piece on the Dean Campaign from today's NYT Magazine. Shapiro completely gets it that this campaign has developed a completely new paradigm for organizing and fundraising, and I don't know anyone in the fund development business who has picked up on it yet. (I have, one of the advantages of months of unemployment is the time to take a deep and methodical look at the Dean Phenomenon and ways to use it in other settings. Email if you want to see my resume and case study, and you've got a development job on offer.) What Trippi and Matt Gross have done is create the campaign version of Fourth Generation or Assymetrical Warfare (they don't call it a campaign for nuthin'): highly decentralized, extremely flexible and interactive. This is one of the finest fundraising models I've ever seen and it runs 180 degrees counter to the conventional wisdom in fundraising, which emphasizes tight control of the message, highly centralized command and control and lots of secrecy. Dean puts everything out there, lets the volunteers improvise (I know from what little Dean volunteering I've done here in Virginia that the local organization improvises with absolute virtuosity) and trusts the virtue of one voter talking to another. That simple act, of trusting the voter, has allowed him to generate enormous buzz.

I got pissed off at Nick Kristoff's op-ed in the NYT yesterday in no small part because it is lazy journalism, just repeating the crap the "conventional wisdom" that the press corps has been spouting since Dean turned up on their radar (and they were late to that party.) The journos are missing the real story: the Dean folks are doing a new thing, and the press doesn't understand it. Clark's people have clearly been studying the Dean campaign, but they started too late to fully implement the assymetrical approach. It's working for Dean because they had a year to refine it before the press finally found Dean.

Kos is reporting that DNC staff are already talking about Dean as the nominee. I don't know if that will happen, but the odds look good to this old horserace handicapper. A campaign like this won't work for every candidate, (Bush is using the old paradigm and he's going to be vulnerable to this new-style campaign) not everyone has the ability to be the absolutely tireless stumper that Dean is (once you've survived a medical residency, maybe this kind of campaign isn't so hard.) Part of what makes Dean work is the large number of personal appearances (and the innovative Holiday Party by video he's throwing in 10 cities tomorrow night) because, in person, he's magnetic. As I've said before, I'm at least as cynical as Steve Gilliard, but when I saw Dean here in my neighborhood last August, I bought the package. Why? It wasn't the anger. It was the hope. And Dean and Trippi get it.

The Dean Connection

By SAMANTHA M. SHAPIRO

Published: December 7, 2003

This national network of people communicates through, and takes inspiration from, the Dean Web log, or blog, where official campaign representatives post messages a few times a day and invite comments from the public. The unofficial campaign interacts daily with the campaign in other ways as well. When Jeff Horwitz, a full-time volunteer, needs help compiling the news articles that make up the staff's daily internal press briefing, he e-mails a request for help to a list of supporters he has never met, asking them to perform Internet news searches at certain times and then e-mail him the results. ''Ten people will volunteer to give me a news summary by 8 a.m.,'' Horwitz explains. ''People in California, which means they have to get up at 4 a.m.'' A number of campaign staffers are in regular contact with Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, 14, who lives in Sitka, Alaska. Growing up on a remote Alaskan island, Kreiss-Tomkins has become especially adept at finding pen pals and online friends, and he now uses that skill on behalf of the Dean campaign, recruiting supporters through the Internet and then sending lists of e-mail addresses to the campaign.

Joe Trippi, Dean's campaign manager, says the campaign's structure is modeled on the Internet, which is organized as a grid, rather than as spokes surrounding a hub. Before joining the campaign, Trippi was on a four-year hiatus from politics, during which he consulted for high-tech companies, and he can be evangelical on the subject of the Internet and its potential to create political change. (A team of Internet theorists -- David Weinberger, Doc Searls, Howard Rheingold -- consults for the campaign.) Trippi likes to say that in the Internet model he has adopted for the campaign, the power lies with the people at ''the edges of the network,'' rather than the center. When people from the unofficial campaign call and ask permission to undertake an activity on behalf of Dean, they are told they don't need permission.

When 2004 is over, students of campaign lore are going to be studying this fight for years to come. As we all know, this will be as dirty a contest as we've seen in a couple of hundred years, or since Nixon, pick your satan. If Dean advances to the general election, I think there is a good chance that the Dems, the 527s and George Soros's millions will hand W his butt. The left is beginning to awaken from a long slumber.

The Finger on the Nuclear Button

Some of the lefty Brit press have been calling George Bush "the most dangerous man on the planet." If that was ever an exaggeration, it is no longer.

A new era of nuclear weapons Bush's buildup begins with little debate in Congress

Congress, with only a limited debate, has given the Bush administration a green light for the biggest revitalization of the country's nuclear weapons program since the end of the Cold War, leaving many Democrats and even some hawkish Republicans seething.

"This has been a good year," said Linton Brooks, the administrator of the National Nuclear Security Administration, which develops and manages the country's nuclear weapons arsenal. "I'm pretty happy we essentially got what we wanted."

Reversing a decade of restraint in nuclear weapons policy, Congress agreed to provide more than $6 billion for research, expansion and upgrades in the country's nuclear capabilities. While Congress approved large sums to maintain the existing nuclear arsenal even during the Clinton years, this year's increases will finance multiyear programs to design a new generation of warheads as well as more sophisticated missiles, bombers and re-entry vehicles to deliver them.

"This is a fairly radical new way of thinking about things," Brooks said, adding that it amounted to "a more fundamental shift in the way we look at this than many people realize."

That the change is indeed both "radical" and "fundamental" is about the only thing critics of the administration agree with.
.....

"I'm totally offended by this administration," said Rep. Curt Weldon, R- Pa., a onetime White House ally on nuclear issues, and vice chairman of the House Armed Services Committee. "I happen to think they're out of bounds on this. There's an important sea change in the world, and we have no idea what our policy is.

"It's a major national scandal in the making," Weldon said in an interview with The Chronicle last week. "I'm totally frustrated."

This ought to be raising a hew and cry, and we all ought to be raising hell. It's time for a phone call to your congresscritters. Sens. Warner and Allen and Congressman Moran are going to be hearing from me tomorrow.

Go Southwest, Young Dems

With all of the war news being so unrelievedly grim, it's taken a little digging to find a political story that offers some hope.

Southwest Rises as New Political Battleground

The region's early nominating contests and changing demographics put Arizona and New Mexico on Democrats' radar for the presidency.
By John M. Glionna, Times Staff Writer

Campaigning Democrats have encountered a region that is diverse and complex. Arizona's population has soared in the last decade, with the state gaining 150,000 residents each year. The percentage of conservative retirees has declined, replaced by voters between 25 and 44 years old who compose about 40% of the state's 2.2 million voters. Nine of 10 residents live in urban and suburban areas.

Democratic strategists hope to do a better job of harnessing the Latino vote in a state that has seen that portion of its population rise by 88% since 1990 — to one-fourth of the state's more than 5 million residents.

Although 80% of the state's Latino voters are registered Democrats, about 40% crossed party lines to vote for Bush in 2000, according to pollster De Berge. But he said that based on recent surveys by his group, more Latinos intended to vote along party lines next year.

Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano, elected last year, says her party continues to make strides in conservative Arizona — the only state to vote Republican in presidential elections every year between 1952 and 1992. (President Clinton broke the streak, carrying the state by a small margin in 1996.)

The Red State/Blue State breakdown of 2000 is not written in stone. The Southwest will be a battleground for the Dems if they can turn out their base, and these states could well offset some of their traditional weakness in the South.

Hearts and Minds and Sistani

The losing battle for Iraqi hearts and minds

The front end of this Sydney Morning Herald article talks about the lives and living conditions in a dirt-poor village on the northwest edge of Baghdad, but at the end of the piece it veers away from being a human interest story to underline the central political reality in Iraq today:

Back at the mosque, Jabar, the 52-year-old custodian, speaks with the confidence that underpins the growing political clout of the Shiite majority as it emerged from relative silence in the last eight months, pushing and shoving to become perhaps the most powerful force in shaping the new Iraq.

"Our hopes for liberation were so big, but the US is not meeting its promises. We will not join the armed resistance. We are waiting for our leader, Ayatollah Ali Sistani, to tell us when and how to resist the US - then we will do it. We await Sistani's orders. Any Iraqi regime would be better than any foreign administration. We refuse to be occupied."

Sadly, these people are trapped in a void - relieved that Saddam is gone but now wishing that the US-led occupation forces would go, too, and happier to trust in their god than in George Bush to guide their uncertain fate.

There is the hard truth of the situation: the Coalition will be able to do in Iraq what Sistani allows us to do.

In Uniform

The good folks at Today in Iraq identified this NYT story as the one not to miss today. I concur, and isolating a couple of pull quotes doesn't do it justice, but let me give you enough of the flavor to get you to click on the link:

A Million Miles From the Green Zone to the Front Lines

By LUCIAN K. TRUSCOTT IV

Published: December 7, 2003
MOSUL, Iraq

Commanding generals have had lavishly appointed offices before, as well. My grandfather, Gen. Lucian K. Truscott Jr., occupied the Borghese Palace when his VI Corps swept into Rome in 1943. His aide kept a record of the meals prepared for him by his three Chinese cooks, while every day dozens — and on some days, hundreds — of his soldiers perished on the front lines at Anzio, only a few miles away from his villa on the beach.

So there may be nothing new about this war and the way we are fighting it — with troops on day and night patrols from base camps being hit by a nameless, faceless enemy they cannot see and whose language they do not speak. However, the disconnect between the marbled hallways of the Coalition Provisional Authority palaces in Baghdad and the grubby camp in central Mosul where I spent last week as a guest of Bravo Company, First Battalion, 502nd Infantry Regiment, is profound, and perhaps unprecedented.
An colonel in Baghdad (who will go nameless here for obvious reasons) told me just after I arrived that senior Army officers feel every order they receive is delivered with next November's election in mind, so there is little doubt at and near the top about who is really being used for what over here. The resentment in the ranks toward the civilian leadership in Baghdad and back in Washington is palpable. Another officer described the two camps, military and civilian, inhabiting the heavily fortified, gold-leafed presidential palace inside the so-called Green Zone in Baghdad, as "a divorced couple who won't leave the house."

Meanwhile in Mosul, the troops of Bravo Company bunker down amid smells of diesel fuel and burning trash and rotting vegetables and dishwater and human waste from open sewers running though the maze of stone and mud alleyways in the Old City across the street. Bravo Company's area of operations would be an assault on the senses even without the nightly rattle of AK-47 fire in the nearby streets, and the two rocket-propelled grenade rounds fired at the soldiers a couple of weeks ago.

It is difficult enough for the 120 or so men of Bravo Company to patrol their overcrowded sector of this city of maybe two million people and keep its streets safe and free of crime. But from the first day they arrived in Mosul, Bravo Company and the rest of the 101st Airborne Division were saddled with dozens of other missions, all of them distinctly nonmilitary, and most of them made necessary by the failure of civilian leaders in Washington and Baghdad to prepare for the occupation of Iraq.

So, this is Iraq today: a highly polticized conflict, directed by civilian leadership which is extremely disconnected from the grunts doing the dirty work and the dying. L. Paul Bremer strides around the presidential palace in Baghdad in Gucci suits and combat boots, pretending to be military seems to be all the rage in the W administration, where I guess they think it is all about the outfits.

Pay it Forward

Before I put the blog to bed for the night, just a reminder that my Paypal link on the upper right wouldn't be there if I didn't really need the help. I'm moving into six months without a paycheck, Christmas is coming and I had to take out a loan to meet the rent and electricity. Any help you can offer will be much appreciated.

To those of you in similar circumstances (I know from email and comments that I'm hardly alone. Where's all that good job news WhistleAss keeps telling us about? All I'm hearing about is more lay-offs) my prayers are with you, as I hope yours are with me.

I'm a believer in the Pay it Forward school of charity. This was explained to me by a practitioner in this fashion: when she was a starving medical student (and she really was poor), an established physician bought her a microscope when she couldn't afford to buy one for herself. The older doctor explained that someone had done the same for him when he was a starving med student. My friend, today a physician of many years standing, now seeks out poor med students and buys books (technical texts which reach a narrow market are hideously expensive, my theology texts were an exercise in religious poverty) and equipment for them. She has contacts in all the medical schools on the east coast and asks them to keep their eyes open for students who are "on the edge."

Any help you can give me now will be offered to another blogger down the road. Think of it as not one good turn, but one good turn multiplied down the years. Your generosity will have echoes. Alternatively, if you would like to support some of my favorite charities, since I can't this year, go see the Campaign for Holy Cross, over in the links at right, the Literacy Council of Northern Virginia (or your local literacy council--if one can't read and write, one can't function. I'm an ESL volunteer, but there are plenty of American born non-literates who could use your dollars and volunteer help), Food and Friends, your favorite Democratic primary campaign (or mine,) Doctors without Borders (Medecins Sans Frontieres) or just go give blood at your local Red Cross. While the Walmarts of the world want to turn this season into an orgy of spending, wouldn't it be so much more interesting to treat the Advent season, which was traditionally a fast in the Christian calendar, a time of introspection, of self-examination, into a season of real self-giving?

The old saw says, a grief shared is halved; a joy shared is doubled. Go do some of each.

Purple Haze

Denial of Purple Heart medals raises questions about casualty count

By Patrick Peterson
Knight Ridder Newspapers

GULFPORT, Miss. - An influential Mississippi congressman has raised the possibility that the Pentagon has undercounted combat casualties in Iraq after he learned that five members of the Mississippi National Guard who were injured Sept. 12 by a booby trap in Iraq were denied Purple Heart medals.

The guardsmen were wounded by an artillery shell that detonated as their convoy passed the tree in which it was hidden, but their injuries were classified as "noncombat," according to Rep. Gene Taylor, D-Miss. Taylor, a senior member of the House Armed Services Committee, learned of the classification when he visited the most seriously injured of the guardsmen, Spc. Carl Sampson, 35, at Walter Reed Army Medical Center in Washington.

"How could no one have caught this?" Taylor said.

On Nov. 20, shortly after visiting Sampson, Taylor brought the matter to the attention of Gen. Richard B. Myers, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the Purple Hearts quickly were awarded.

But Taylor said the incident raised concerns that Iraq combat casualties had been understated. He said Myers told him he'd been made aware of similar oversights.
A Pentagon spokesman said the decision to award the Purple Heart was made at a unit level and that he couldn't explain how the misclassification occurred.

Members of the Mississippi National Guard were mystified. "Sampson should have already been awarded a Purple Heart," said Lt. Col. Tim Powell, a spokesman for the Guard. "An improvised explosive device built and placed with the intent to harm American soldiers is hostile."

Petty, political policy. Does anyone think this isn't directed out of Washington? Every time I think the band of evil-doers at 1600 Penn can't sink any lower, stuff likes this floats up.

Around the Blogs

Leah A at corrente puts up one of the all time great rants on the So Called Liberal Media. The corrente quartet are a daily read for smart writing and incisive analysis.

In addition to his usual deft analysis of the war news, Steve Gilliard has a very interesting essay on the significance of the so-called "527" organizations, and the possible effect they will have in the coming presidential election. I usually share Steve's pretty dark view of the military mire we are in right now, but his perspective on the upcoming election is considerably sunnier than mine. Read him and leave your verdict in his newly souped-up Comments boxes.

A new voice, the Gropinator is all over developments in the, what else, Gropinator administration. Hint, the California legislature just flunked Ahnold's budget proposal.

The early rising Rev. Allen Brill of The Right Christians starts the day with a critique of the "condolence" letters that W is supposedly writing to the grieving families of troops who have died in Iraq and Afghanistan. Since Allen is in the compassion business, he has standing to be harsh.

Tom Spencer of the late lamented Thinking it Through is back with a guest gig at Dave Johnson's Seeing the Forest. Why not go welcome him back.

Like moi, Susan Madrak is taking advantage of her newly-liberated-from-the-ranks-of-the-gainfully-employed status for some powerful blogging at Suburban Guerrilla. She promises a piece on snowstorm cuisine later today (joining Gilliard and myself in the yen for something warm and filling when the snow flies) and also starts the day by hitting on one of my favorite themes: not ceding the moderate to progressive religious voters to the right-wing Bible thumpers.

Avedon Carol at The Sideshow has a powerful, point-by-point take down of Charles Krauthammer's deceitful, hateful op-ed in yesterday's WaPo. When she gets on a tear, she's a force of nature.

And I may try a takedown of Nick Kristof's hateful, deceitful op-ed in today's NYTimes. I'm still seething too much to attempt the cold analysis this garbage requires.

Lots to Fix

Baker Is Named to Restructure Iraq's Huge Debt

By ELISABETH BUMILLER
Published: December 6, 2003

WASHINGTON, Dec. 5 — President Bush turned Friday for assistance on Iraq to the man who helped him win the contested election in 2000, naming former Secretary of State James A. Baker III as his personal envoy to restructure more than $100 billion in Iraq's foreign debt.

The appointment of Mr. Baker, a longtime Bush family confidant and troubleshooter, was, in effect, a public admission by the White House that the occupation and reconstruction of Iraq is a more urgent problem than officials acknowledge. Over Mr. Baker's decades of friendship with the Bush family, both father and son have turned to him when things have gone wrong, and Mr. Baker has for the most part delivered.

"Secretary Baker will report directly to me and will lead an effort to work with the world's governments at the highest levels with international organizations and with the Iraqis in seeking the restructuring and reduction of Iraq's official debt," Mr. Bush said in a statement.

But administration officials said that the portfolio of Mr. Baker, 73, would be much broader than seeking an international agreement to restructure the debt, and that he would serve as an unofficial ambassador to explain the administration's plans for Iraq to skeptical nations in Europe and the Middle East. Officials noted that Mr. Baker, who was a very powerful White House chief of staff and treasury secretary in the Reagan administration, and an equally powerful secretary of state for the first President Bush during the 1991 Persian Gulf War, was not a man accustomed to remaining in the background.

We've been waiting a while for this circle to be closed: James Baker, the Bush family fixer, is riding to the rescue in Iraq. I assume Jerry Bremer has begun looking for his exit strategy and soft landing with the Kissinger firm or the Beltway Bandits, since Baker's portfolio is so broad that it cuts out Bremer, Powell and probably CENTCOM.

Quite frankly, if Baker, the ultimate pragmatist, manages to come up with anything which actually improves the situation in Iraq, for the Iraqis and for our troops, I'll give him all the props. But I think the situation is so FUBAR that, unless he gets the authority to overrule the incompetant Donald Rumsfeld and order in more troops, there isn't a hell of a lot that can be done.

More troops? Whoops:

Army Will Face Dip in Readiness

4 Divisions Need to Regroup After Iraq
By Vernon Loeb
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, December 6, 2003; Page A01

Four Army divisions -- 40 percent of the active-duty force -- will not be fully combat-ready for up to six months next year, leaving the nation with relatively few ready troops in the event of a major conflict in North Korea or elsewhere, a senior Army official said yesterday.

The four divisions -- the 82nd Airborne, the 101st Airborne, the 1st Armored and the 4th Infantry -- are to return from Iraq next spring, to be replaced by three others, with a fourth rotating into Afghanistan. That would leave only two active-duty divisions available to fight in other parts of the world.

Briefing reporters at the Pentagon, the official said the four returning divisions will be rated either C-3 or C-4, the Army's two lowest readiness categories, for 120 to 180 days after they return as vehicles and helicopters are overhauled and troops are rested and retrained.

***snip***

This dip in readiness could have political consequences for President Bush, who sharply criticized the Clinton administration during the 2000 campaign for allowing two Army divisions to fall to the lowest readiness category in 1999 because of peacekeeping obligations in the Balkans.

"Obviously, this is much worse in terms of the numbers," said Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee who has called for increasing the size of the Army. "This is an indication of the stress the Army is under."

With all of the Democratic presidential candidates criticizing Bush's handling of the war in Iraq and his overall stewardship of foreign policy, the strategic implications of the Army's low readiness rates could also become an issue in the campaign.

"It's called dangerous," said Rep. Ike Skelton (Mo.), ranking Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, who has been calling for 40,000 more Army troops -- the equivalent of two divisions -- since 1995. "The purpose of the military is to stand ready, to face dangers as they appear. Afghanistan came out of the blue, and fortunately we were able to respond."

The Army official acknowledged that four divisions rated C-3 or C-4 represent a "risk" in the nation's strategic posture. But he added: "It's a manageable risk. We've looked at this thing several ways from the joint [inter-service] perspective. It's a manageable risk."

It's worth noting that none of the Army or DoD sources quoted in this story allowed themselves to be named. Whose ox is being gored?

The article goes on to quote retired general Barry McCaffrey, long a critic of the Bush adventure in Iraq, who puts some context around the meaning of "four divisions" being, literally, hors de combat: this is roughly half of the Army. Let's see, we've understaffed both the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts, North Korea remains volatile, and half the Army is out of business.

Ya think this might be a campaign issue?

Democracy and Budgets

[Washington] State's presidential primary is canceled

By NEIL MODIE
SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER REPORTER

OLYMPIA -- It was supposed to be a quickie special session to pass a no-brainer bill, but the Legislature yesterday nearly shot down the legislation that was its only reason for convening.

Passed in an unusual December session that lasted barely over four hours, the measure cancels the state's 2004 presidential primary, making Washington the seventh state to do so and saving more than $6 million, on the grounds that it would be largely meaningless. It affects only next year's presidential primary.

The House followed the expected script by taking just 13 minutes to debate and pass the bill on a bipartisan, 84-7 vote with seven members absent.

But then the Senate anguished at length -- first waging parliamentary combat, including a GOP attempt to adjourn without voting on the bill, and then debating for an hour -- before barely approving the measure on a nearly party-line vote, 25-22. Two members were absent. A bill needs 25 votes to pass the 49-member Senate.

Republicans decried the concept of doing away with a right as fundamental as voting, just to save money. "We're taking democracy away from the people," declared Sen. Dave Schmidt, R-Mill Creek.

Democrats argued that, as Sen. Adam Kline of Seattle contended, it would be "a very unnecessary exercise and a waste of $6 million" since Democrats are using Feb. 7 caucuses to choose their nominating-convention delegates and Republicans already know their nominee will be President Bush.

I'll let Washington State residents guide me on this, but it doesn't make much sense to me to hold a primary election when the only contested race is going to be decided by caucus, anyway. With state budgets as tight as they are right now, the $6 mil this thing would cost probably wouldn't be offset by taxes on ad buys.

I'm all for the exercise of democracy, particularly at the state and local level, but this one-year cancelation of the primary under the current circumstances makes sense to me.

Lots of news today. Check back often. And hit the tip jar up on the top right if you can. This computer is on its last legs.

Chestnuts Roasting on the Open Fire

Given that I'm as white bread a Minnesota Scandanavian as they come, and Steve Gilliard is your hip, New York City black guy, sometimes I think we could have been twins separated at birth, our minds are so much in tune. Here in the East, we had our first little snow last night, which appears to be a preparation for the main event tonight into tomorrow. Those of you in the Mountain West, Upper Midwest or Northeast will find this amusing (Matt Yglesias, late of Harvard Square, now one of the ultimate Beltway Insiders, certainly does) but six inches of snow in Washington shuts the place down.

Like everybody else in town, facing the prospect of a day or so trapped in the house, I headed to the grocery. The onset of winter weather had Steve's mind turn to thought of food as well.

My grocery buying for winter storms has a distinctly liturgical cast to it: there are some things I crave when the weather turns bad. The first is peanut butter sandwiches and cocoa. I'm not a purist about cocoa like Steve is, I buy the stuff in the envelopes and brace it with some evaporated skim milk (the only milk I use, twice the calcium of the stuff in cartons). This has been my favorite snow food since I was a tiny child. The family would go sledding in the wintertime, usually along the bluffs above Rainy Lake. Mom made thermoses of hot cocoa and batches of both chicken and peanut butter sandwiches and we'd sled until it got too dark to see and avoid the trees. The taste of PB sandwiches and cocoa takes me back to the most innocent days of my youth.

Other good winter foods for me are the kinds of things that need long, slow cooking: coq au vin, boeuf bourgignon, black beens with ham, the crock pot is essential for this. I love French-Canadian style pea soup (the best is a Canadian brand, Habitant, for which I swear I'm going to get an import license) and make soup from scratch in the winter, off the carcasses of roasted chickens or turkeys. (The left over turkey from last week is going into a turkey and wild rice soup tomorrow.) I want stuff that is going to spread aroma throughout the house for a whole day, the smell of good food is as important to me as the taste

About that roast chicken: spring for a Roemertopf, a roman style clay pot for cooking roasts, chickens and stews. It's fast, cooks at high heat which steams in the juices of any meat, while keeping the surrounding veggies crisp. I have never had anything other than a spectacular meal out of this thing, and I've been using it a lot for the last 20 years. When you've got a really expensive cut of meat that you really don't want to screw up, this is the tool for you: I've cooked whole tenderloins, beef and pork, in it to absolute perfection. What it does for a rack of lamb is nothing short of miraculous.

I don't bake bread often, but the Roemertopf is supposed to be superb for that, too. Since the Old Farmer's Alamanc is predicting another snowy winter for us (like last year, which was the snowiest in my 18 years in DC) I may get a chance to try bread baking out in the pot this winter.

If you don't have an outdoor grill or tandoori oven, the Roemertopf will give you the closest approximation of tandoori cooking you can get in a western oven. I cook a lot of Indian and Mid-east food, the pot is perfect for it.

My favorite site for recipes, in case you want to try any of the above, is Epicurious. I've used a number of their recipes, and they have good links to other resources for cooks.

The Law in its Majesty

I never thought of lawyering as particularly dangerous work, but there are two stories today which may cause me to rethink that position. I know I have a lot of lawyer readers: care to weigh in?

Coroner: Prosecutor Died of Drowning, Stab Wounds

By Fredrick Kunkle, Susan Levine and Allan Lengel
Washington Post Staff Writers Friday, December 5, 2003; 1:12 PM

BRECKNOCK TOWNSHIP, Pa., Dec. 5--An assistant U.S. attorney whose body was found Thursday morning in an icy creek in this rural Pennsylvania township died of drowning and multiple stab wounds, the coroner here said.

The coroner, local doctor Barry Walp, said Jonathan P. Luna's body was found Thursday morning face down in a creek with multiple stab wounds to his head and neck. Walp said Luna was dressed in a business suit and an overcoat and the prosecutor was not shot.
Luna's slaying stunned his colleagues and led authorities to pledge a massive and unrelenting investigation. A federal prosecutor in Baltimore for four years, Luna, 38, had been handling a drug conspiracy case against a rap singer and another man accused of distributing bulk amounts of heroin out of a music studio and other locations in and near the city. Law enforcement sources said Luna, a husband and father of two small boys, left his Howard County home Wednesday night, headed to his Baltimore office to prepare paperwork related to a plea bargain with the defendants.

Sources said he left his office for home shortly before midnight, and his wife later reported him missing.

And from north of the border:

Lawyer quits terror cases after death threat

By OLIVER MOORE Globe and Mail Update

Fighting for his composure, lawyer Rocco Galati said Thursday that he will drop all of his terrorism-related cases after a death threat that he said he believes came from an intelligence agency. Mr. Galati is known as a tough-minded counsellor and he said he has put up with plenty of abuse for representing people many Canadians have no sympathy for. He has endured angry communications before and once found a strangled cat on his doorstep, but he almost broke down Thursday as he described his disillusionment upon receiving the threat.

“I'm not on the verge of tears for my safety. I'm on the verge of tears because it means we now live in Colombia. It means that the rule of law is meaningless. It means that lawyers cannot represent anyone even in what you profess to be a democracy here in Canada,” he said. “It comments on where we've arrived as a society.”

He issued a direct appeal to “whoever I've angered,” pleading that they take his statement Thursday “as my bowing out.”

I find this deeply disturbing. The "rule of law" is a deeply human process, both for the prosecutors who are the state's arm, and the defense counsel, to which we are all entitled if we are accused of a crime. Further down in The Globe and Mail story, Rocco Galati played the voice-mail threat he received. He's engaged to defend seven terrorism suspects, and thinks the threat came from intelligence or law enforcement.

The Patriot Act is scary enough without having to worry that the government is intimidating defense attorneys.

Storm Watch

Seven hurricanes predicted for 2004

Friday, December 5, 2003 Posted: 1645 GMT (12:45 AM HKT)

FORT COLLINS, Colorado (AP) -- A storm expert on Friday predicted a busier-than-usual Atlantic hurricane season next year, with seven hurricanes -- three of them major.

In his first extended-range forecast for 2004, William Gray and his team at Colorado State University predicted 13 named storms during the June-through-November season. Gray said the chance of at least one major storm hitting the U.S. coastline is 68 percent.
The long-term average is 9.6 tropical storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year.

The season that just ended also saw above-average storm activity with 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three intense hurricanes, and a 15th storm was in the Caribbean on Friday. Tropical Storm Odette was the first recorded tropical storm to form in the Caribbean in December, weather officials said.

--------

In the last century, about one in three major storms in the Atlantic hit land. Based on that average, about 10 intense hurricanes should have hit the U.S. coastline in the past nine years, but only three have.

Abnormal weather conditions affecting the East Coast have protected the shoreline, Gray said.

"Climatology will eventually right itself," he said, "and we must expect a great increase in land-falling major hurricanes and hurricane-spawned destruction in coming decades on a scale many times greater than what we have seen in the past."

Yeah, this is a science Friday story, but it is also an economic story. Here's why:

In the decades since the last great East Coast hurricane cycle the East Coast of the US has seen incredible amounts of residential and business development. The barrier islands of the shore, from Jersey to Georgia, were mostly empty in the 1920s to 1940s. Now they are dense with development. If one of these heavily settled parts of the coast takes a direct hit from a powerful hurricane (Isabel was a weak storm when she got here in September, but we still had an extraordinary economic fall out, in the billions in the Mid-Atlantic from this storm) the direct costs to insurance companies, mortgage companies, civic infrastructure, utility companies could be huge. I know a person who does risk assessment for a major national mortgage company and this is one of the things that they dread.

All of those barrier islands also have limited access/egress, which means that evacuating people in the face of a big storm will be a serious problem, and one that hasn't been drilled for by the states north of Florida. Dr. Gray has been almost prescient in his ability to forecast hurricanes, and his modeling has improved in the last few years. Our economy is still fragile; a major East Coast hurricane could send it back into a tailspin again.

It's the Stupid Economy

Jobless Rate Declined Again in November, to 5.9%
By KENNETH N. GILPIN

Published: December 5, 2003

The nation's unemployment rate ticked down in November, the Labor Department reported this morning, but employers added just 57,000 jobs, far less than consensus estimates.

The bond market, which dotes on bad news, rallied on the report, pushing down both short and long-term interest rates; stock prices sagged in disappointment.

But even though the rate of job creation is far below what might normally be expected two years into an economic expansion, analysts said the news in today's figures was not uniformly bad.

Specifically, they noted that the drop in the unemployment rate, to 5.9 percent, puts the jobless rate at is lowest level in eight months. Unemployment peaked in June at 6.4 percent. The last time the rate was lower was in March, when unemployment stood at 5.8 percent.

Moreover, the 57,000 increase in non-farm payrolls during November was the fourth straight monthly increase. Since July, payrolls have risen by 328,000, the Labor Department said.

The bond and stock markets are telling the tale here, in spite of W's trumpeting all this "good news." When I put up The Bleg (below), I heard from a lot of you who are, like me, suffering from long-term unemployment. The competition for jobs is just fierce right now. I've been job-hunting in other economic downturns and never went this long without receiving an offer. I'm hearing similar from many of you.

One of the things I love about the blogs is the education I've been getting in disciplines where I have very little schooling, like economics. Max Sawicky has been an important part of my economics education. Max is an economist at the Economic Policy Institute (I really AM having a think-tanky kind of week--a genuine Inside the Beltway experience) which provides a very helpful website to help us understand these employment numbers at Job Watch.. One of the talking heads on CNBC just said that "the economy has gone from bad to mediocre." As Max likes to remind us, if your neighbor loses their job, it's a recession; if you lose your job, it's a depression.

PR and the Foreign Press

Bush's Baghdad Flyby, As Seen by the Arab Press

"A [public-relations] stunt it may have been, but what those who deride it as such fail to understand is that PR stunts are what drive so much of politics in the West. They are what can win elections." That's how The Arab News accurately summed up Bush's surprise visit to Baghdad's airport last week to be photographed serving Thanksgiving turkey to American soldiers.

Elsewhere in the Saudi Arabian daily's pages, op-ed commentator Amr Mohammed Al-Faisal's appraisal of Bush's unexpected "little farce" was more trenchant. The American president, he wrote, "had slunk in under heavy secrecy lest some enterprising Iraqi insurgents lob some donkey-borne rockets freedom's way and thereby spoil the photo-op. [If] this shabby little sketch was meant to raise the morale of U.S. troops in Iraq . . . then their morale must really have hit rock bottom."

Instead of the confidence and resolve about the U.S. military's presence in Iraq that the trip's White House organizers wanted it to symbolize, Egypt's Al-Ahram said, the event "gave the world, the Americans and Iraqis an impression totally contrary to what [he] was seeking . . . [a visit by] a commander-in-chief to his military forces who are stuck in an impasse." (Quoted by AFP/Sydney Morning Herald)

Likewise, for The Arab News's Al-Faisal, Bush's appearance signaled that "the Americans are really in serious trouble." If that's the case, he surmised, and if the United States eventually does cut its losses and pull out, then Iraq, "having had its physical and political infrastructures destroyed by the Americans, will . . . be left in a state of total chaos, with civil war as a natural outcome. [C]ivil wars could then drag us all into a series of regional wars for years to come."

In Tehran, Iran's foreign minister, Kamal Kharazi, said, "The U.S. president's sudden visit to Iraq was a sign of the U.S. fear of the Iraqi people." (AFP/Hindustan Times)
Afraid or not, Bush did not make a point of seeking out and hobnobbing with ordinary Baghdad residents. "He visited Iraq for the sake of the Americans, not the Iraqis," a middle-aged barber told The Scotsman. "He didn't come to see how we are doing." "To come, say hello and leave -- what good does that do?" Fadel Hadi, a 59-year-old man who was playing dominoes at a teahouse, told the Scottish newspaper's reporter. "If he takes care of Iraq, he will be welcomed here. If not -- whether he's here or in the White House -he is of no use to us."

I heard The Atlantic's James Fallows on Diane Rehm's weekly news roundup this morning. There was considerable conversation about Bush's Baghdad visit, and Fallows made the point that the way the foreign press see these PR events and the way they are covered by our domestic press are so far apart as to be describing different events. Even our "allies", the Saudis, weren't taken in by this stunt.

The Bleg

With help from friends, a crashed and emptied retirement account and some odds and ends, I'm surviving the current employment and income crisis. I've gotten a couple of months of breathing room as I continue to look for a new career. To all of you who have sent job leads: thank you, I'm following up on all of them (even the federal ones, which require some really strange hoop-jumping) and to all of you who sent contributions via the Paypal link up on the top right, simply thank you. Your generosity to this stranger reminds me that humanity, while made of crooked timber, is a pretty fine thing to go wandering in. Paypal requires a couple of days before their verification process kicks in, so if you haven't yet gotten confirmation from them that your contribution has been verified, not to worry. It should be set up by Friday afternoon.

I've been told by those who know a whole lot more about this than I do that my whole computer set up is so out of date, questionable and unstable that if I want to continue the whole blogging thing, I need new equipment, both hard and soft. The current set up is a P1 with W95, and yes, the crashes are wearying, but major capital expenses and a DSL connection have not been a priority while I've been doing the 50 year old returning grad student transitioning to the economy thing for the last five years. I'd like to put your contributions toward the blog: i.e. getting me a better computer and connection so that I can do this faster and better. If you want to hit the Paypal link above, your contribution will go toward getting me a better, faster machine and a cable connection. I thank you for your help.

If you've got job openings in the DC metro area, I'd be happy to hear about those, too. The resume is slanted toward writing/editing and fund raising. It's the stuff I know how to do.

FUBAR

A Brewing Constitutional Crisis

Afghan Delegate Meetings Foreshadow Difficult Battles
By Pamela Constable Washington Post Foreign Service Thursday, December 4, 2003; Page A01

GARDEZ, Afghanistan -- More than 650 turbaned elders milled outside a U.N. voting tent Tuesday, clutching copies of a formal white document. Some fumbled with rarely worn spectacles as they peered at the tiny print; others frowned and jotted careful notes next to certain items.

There was no time for tea and gossip. The nation was preparing to debate and adopt a new constitution after 25 years of war and lawlessness, and the elders, gathered in a schoolyard to elect candidates for the upcoming constitutional assembly, already knew what they wanted from the charter.

"We want democracy, but only if it is according to Islamic law," asserted Nasrullah, 55, a farmer from Ghazni province, as a dozen men around him nodded vigorously. "In this document it is written that killing criminals is not allowed, but we need qisas to stop crime," he said, referring to the Islamic doctrine of eye-for-an-eye vengeance. "This is not the law of the Taliban. It is the law of God."

The gathered elders agreed, in principle, that women should be able to participate in the assembly, provided they wear proper Islamic head coverings. But the lone woman candidate was nowhere to be seen. She spent the day segregated in a classroom, cut off from all the discussion, and she said no one had given her a copy of the proposed constitution.

I seem to recall that one of the big hoo-haws the administration made about "liberating" Afghanistan was the rights of women.

And in Iraq today, we learn that Bremer and the CPA tossed plans for a census needed before elections could be held. When W told us back in campaign 2000 that he wasn't into nation-building, he wasn't kidding. Invasions, yes, nation-building, no.

Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds

Australia joins US missile defence plan

By Staff Reporters December 5, 2003

Australia will join the United States in developing its missile defence program, in a move the Government describes as a significant step in the evolution of the alliance.

The Defence Minister, Robert Hill, said Australia's role was still being assessed, but it might include wider co-operation in detecting missiles at launch, acquiring or co-operating on ship-based and land-based sensors, science and technology research, and testing.

The decision to join the US in developing the system - which would allow missiles to be launched from land or sea against a ballistic missile attack - would bring Australia "into the tent", with opportunities for local defence industries.

It was also seen by some as designed to provoke a reaction from the new Opposition Leader, Mark Latham, whose previous anti-US rhetoric has been seized on by the Government.

Further on, this article notes that the Japanese are thinking about signing on to this boondoggle, as well, out of fear of North Korean Missiles. We all know the technology doesn't exist, right, and that it is a foolish way to spend money? Now we are exporting our delusions to otherwise sensible nations...

Threshold for Success?

The Brookings Institution, a Washington thinktank, held a briefing on Tuesday regarding the situation in Iraq. The participants were two Brookings scholars, Kenneth Pollack and Michael O'Hanlon, along with Woodrow Wilson Fellow Charles Duelfer. Brookings Senior Fellow Martin Indyk moderated. Each of the participants had recently visited Iraq, and here are the summaries of their positions:

Pollack: "My own sentiment about Iraq is that this could go either way," said Pollack. "There is a great deal of good going on inside of Iraq but there is also a great deal of bad going on. It ultimately comes down to what the United States wants to do. If we are willing to stick this operation out and willing to make changes in how we're doing things, I see no reason why Iraq cannot become a prosperous, stable, pluralist society."

O'Hanlon: described his outlook on Iraq as "guardedly optimistic" and predicted that the United States will ultimately succeed there.

"For me, the threshold for success has to be clearly defined before we talk about whether we'll prevail or not. The threshold, for me, is not [Deputy Secretary of Defense] Wolfowitz's image of a democratic Iraq bringing about a broad transformation of the region. I doubt that will happen…I think we need a stable Iraq that does not attack its neighbors, does not develop weapons of mass destruction, and does not slaughter ethnic minorities."

Duelfer: critical of America's post-invasion efforts and expressed little optimism about the future. "I think that President Bush made the correct decision that the regime had to go" said Duelfer. "However, every step to implement that decision was faulted."

Duelfer identified the elimination of both the Baath party and security service armies as decisions that are impeding reconstruction efforts.

"I am deeply concerned that, aside from the quantitative indicators, there is an intangible effect that is permeating the Iraqi population, particularly the population which has the greatest experience running Iraq and we're turning them into enemies. Whatever we do in the future, we need to be more inclusive."

During his visit to Iraq, Pollack was pleased with the progress made in restoring electricity, supplying markets, and educating children. However, he said that Iraq needed more civil affair officers, translators, bureaucrats, and troops.

Pollack also expressed concerns over what he saw as the U.S. military's "obsession" with protecting American forces. "If force protection is our greatest concern, let's pull our troops out of Iraq and put them in Texas, because they'll be safe in Texas. But we went to Iraq for a reason and we ought to follow through…You cannot police a city at 20-35 kilometers from the back of a Bradley [armored vehicle]. It just won't work."

Panelists agreed that the success of American efforts in Iraq will play a vital role in the upcoming presidential election.

"I understand that Bush needs a significant change before November 2004," said O'Hanlon. "But he's not going to be able to get anywhere close to out of Iraq by next November."

Pollack recognized the inevitable political fallout of Iraq reconstruction, but hoped that policy will be crafted without electoral considerations.

"I hope the politics don't affect Iraq because if they do, we will screw it up," he said. "Iraq is extraordinarily important to us and it's too important to be determined by American politics."

Hmm. Salam Pax isn't seeing that improvement in electricity. Jim Henley has been crunching the numbers.

Reliable Robert

Byrd to Block Omnibus Funding Bill

Senator Says He'll Oppose GOP Bid for Passage With No Roll Call
By Helen Dewar
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, December 4, 2003; Page A15

The already dim prospects for final congressional action next week on a huge catchall funding bill for the government faded further yesterday when Sen. Robert C. Byrd (D-W.Va.) signaled that he will block a Republican move to pass the measure without a roll-call vote.

Byrd's move makes it even more likely that the $328 billion package will not be approved before Congress opens its 2004 session in late January.

Under Senate rules, it would take unanimous consent -- the approval of all 100 senators -- to bring the contentious "omnibus" spending bill up for a vote. Byrd said in a statement issued by his office that he will withhold his consent.

Under the Republican plan, the bill would be passed without a roll-call vote, which is customary but not required for major legislation. Only last month, the Senate approved legislation providing $87.5 billion for military and rebuilding operations in Iraq and Afghanistan without a roll call.

It strikes me as more than a little odd that the Senate Dems keep relying on their most senior member to do the right thing. Give Robert Byrd a break, people!

Your Help

Bump readers,

I've been more absent than normal today, furiously assembling more resume and application packages. I have many resumes out, for real openings, but things move slowly in human resources offices at this time of year.

I'm working hard to put the technical details together tonight and hope to have a PayPal link up on the top of this site by tonight or tomorrow. I'm going to have to ask for your help. I was laid-off on July 1, have had several interviews but no job offers since. I am now out of money. I sent out resumes to temporary agencies today. I know that everyone is stretched at this time of year, but if you could give me even a little hand once the PayPal link goes up, it will be much appreciated.

If you are an employer in the Washington, DC, area and are looking for a writer/editor or development professional, I would be happy to forward my resume.

UPDATE: The Paypal link is up at the top right, thanks to Melanie Goux (see link under "Thanks" over on the right.) I'll have personal thanks to each of you later today. The early part of the day will be spent flying around trying to work out employment and finances.

Too Uncertain to Call

Phase three: civil war

The post-occupation power struggle in Iraq may yet be the bloodiest chapter in the conflict

Simon Tisdall
Wednesday December 3, 2003
The Guardian

What really happened in Samarra? According to US military spokesmen, a series of ambushes on coalition convoys by the Saddam Fedayeen militia was repulsed with unprecedented, devastating enemy losses.

The official, estimated casualty toll in Sunday's fighting in the town, north-west of Baghdad, was 54 "enemy combatants" dead, 22 wounded and one captured, against five American wounded. This is indeed unusual. In most combat situations, the number of wounded normally exceeds the number killed. In such a furious firefight, American casualties might have been expected to be proportionately higher. But one US newspaper at least was in no doubt. Samarra was a famous "victory".

Unofficial accounts tell a different story, suggesting that many of the dead were civilians, not insurgents. One shopkeeper said that once under attack, American soldiers began shooting wildly and in all directions. After seeing two civilians shot down, he said he was so incensed that "if I had a gun, I would have attacked the Americans myself". Another eyewitness, a Samarra policeman, gave a similar account. As of Monday, only eight bodies of the official total of 54 had been accounted for and most were reportedly civilians.

So what was Samarra? Was it a great feat of American arms? Was it a massacre of the innocent? Or was it just another familiar yet confused and bloody incident about which the real truth will probably never be known?

Similar questions - about who's winning, is it right, is it true, and will it work - can be applied, more broadly, to the entire US and allied effort. In Iraq, the big picture is notoriously hard to see, continually clouded by contradictory claims. But as the situation evolves rapidly and unpredictably, a clear, accurate view is more than ever necessary.

As the US and Britain announce plans to "draw down" our battle forces and move towards some sort of Iraqi self-governance by the middle of next year, the on the ground insurgency seems better organized and possessed of better intelligence than the Coalition. How did the insurgents know about that currency shipment through Samarra?

We have no kind of handle on who the insurgents are. As I pointed out over the weekend, even Gen. Richard Sanchez is making contradictory statements about this. What is clear: there is much jockeying for power and position for the future post-occupation Iraq. The Interim Governing Council wants to stand up to the Shia and Grand Ayatollah Sistani--which seems to fly in the face of common sense.

This move by L. Paul Bremer seems absolutely wrong-headed: as the nationalist, religious and tribal factions vie for power, arming them under nominal US control doesn't seem like such a hot idea:

U.S. to Form Iraqi Paramilitary Force

Unit Will Draw From Party Militias
By Rajiv Chandrasekaran
Washington Post Foreign Service
Wednesday, December 3, 2003; Page A01

BAGHDAD, Dec. 2 -- The U.S. civilian and military leadership in Iraq has decided to form a paramilitary unit composed of militiamen from the country's five largest political parties to identify and pursue insurgents who have eluded American troops and Iraqi police officers, U.S. and Iraqi officials said Tuesday.

The five parties will contribute a total of 750 to 850 militiamen to create a new counterterrorism battalion within the Iraqi Civil Defense Corps that would initially operate in and around Baghdad, the officials said. They said U.S. Special Forces soldiers would work with the battalion, whose operations would be overseen by the American-led military command here.

The party leaders regard the formation of the paramilitary force, which had initially been resisted by the occupation authority, as an acknowledgement that the Bush administration's strategy of relying on Iraqi police officers and civil defense forces has been insufficient to restore security. The leaders contend Iraq's municipal police departments and civil defense squads are too ineffective to combat resistance fighters.

Let's see...the last paragraph admits that we've already tried this twice, with the police and civil defense and failed, so now we are going to arm and give some sort of special forces training to partisan militias--which aren't supposed to exist--in numbers insufficient to do us any good. Is it just me, or does this look like a piece of poorly-thought-out PR and an act of desperation?

UPDATE: IRAQ: TOO UNCERTAIN TO CALL

This is a link to Anthony Cordesman's report for the USG following his trip to Iraq last month. He holds the Arleigh Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International studies. All of their documents are in PDF, unfortunately, but there is a lot of interesting stuff available on this site.

The God Squad

Msgr. Hartman Has Parkinson's

By Martin C. Evans
Staff Writer

Msgr. Thomas Hartman, whose "The God Squad" syndicated newspaper column and network television appearances have made him one of the most recognized faces of American Catholicism, announced in Saturday's column that he has Parkinson's disease.

Hartman, 57, said he was diagnosed with the debilitating disease four years ago and has been receiving outpatient treatments at Manhattan's Beth Israel Medical Center.

"I don't know fully why I have this, but I know it is going to do a lot of good," said Hartman, who said he will continue his work and may ask actor Michael J. Fox to help him raise money to seek a cure for the disease.

The disorder has hit Fox, former boxer Muhammad Ali and Pope John Paul II, and can cause muscle trembling or rigidity, difficulty with gait and balance and slurred speech.

Parkinson's is a progressive neurological disorder attributed to inadequate production of the chemical messenger dopamine in the nervous system. Its cause is not fully understood.

In Hartman's case, the disease causes the muscles in his right arm and leg to freeze unexpectedly. He has undertaken a regimen of exercise, rest and drug therapy.

If you want to know what the good things are about religion, any religion, run and find any of the books Tom wrote with his collaborator and best friend, Rabbi Marc Gellman. I was introduced to this pair many years ago when they gave an evening's lecture for the Smithsonian Resident Associates program (one of the best perks about living in DC.)

Marc and Tom met 20 years ago when they were both invited to a Long Island TV station to do a short bit on Easter and Passover for the local news one night. After they finished their on-camera bit, they ended up standing in the station parking lot talking for hours into the night, and a beautiful friendship was born, along with "The God Squad," the syndicated newspaper column and sometimes cable TV program the two of them put together.

Seeing the two of them on stage together on that summer night, nearly ten years ago now, was a revelation to me. It is rare to see men, even close friends, demonstrate much obvious affection for each other. These two were utterly unafraid of who saw their love and respect for each other. Their exercise of religion is among the most open-hearted and generous I have ever seen and it inspired me to go on for training as a spiritual director and then into seminary for a degree in theology. I owe the two of them, for that evening and then for their books which I happily devoured and used to design adult ed courses for the Unitarian Universalist church I belonged to back then. You don't need a link to Amazon.com from me, you've got it in your bookmarks, but use Powell's Books until the union organizing mess at the Borders in Ann Arbor, the flagship store of the chain, supported by Amazon, is over.

And if you are in the habit of prayer, toss a little in Msgr. Hartman's direction.

Lookit the Turkey

Stuffed on Thanksgiving
In Baghdad, the fourth estate buys the fake.

It was a media event without precedent-an elaborately staged production in which a small group of journalists was literally kidnapped, flown into a war zone, stuffed headfirst into the ass of a Thanksgiving turkey and then made to flap its arms for the amusement of all humanity when the commander-in-chief blew into a kazoo. A more dramatic example of Stockholm Syndrome has probably never been shown on television.

There are going to be a lot of Bush-haters out there who will be tempted to evince disgust at the "shock and awe" Thanksgiving trip for the obvious reasons: the stage-managed sentimentality, the humiliating spectacle of our commander-in-chief whizzing in and out of Baghdad under cover of darkness like a campus flasher, the billionaire president’s simultaneously hilarious and sickening appropriation of poor-person language in asking for a "warm meal somewhere."

This is wrong. If we are to be honest with ourselves, we must admit that this stunt was certainly the closest thing to physical courage that George Bush has ever publicly demonstrated. Not that it isn’t tempting to make light of some of the "hazards" he faced ("The president encountered and witnessed traffic for the first time in three years," White House communications director Dan Bartlett told reporters), but there’s no denying that the trip was a serious logistical achievement and not without real risks. Even if he were only following the orders of his pollster, Bush should at least be given credit for not shitting his pants in the line of duty.

It’s Bush’s job, after all, to lead us into disastrous foreign-policy adventures and then try to sugarcoat them with mawkish, grandstanding publicity stunts. No one should be upset with the president for doing his job. What we should be upset about is the national press corps behaving like p.r. agents, which is what happened last week.

I saw the WaPo's Mike Allen on Russert Sunday morning, it was sickening. He was so clearly pleased to be one of the "cool kids." Can't these fools see how they are being co-opted? Does Howie Kurtz have to tell them (not that he would)? Why do I have to read the Brit or Australian press to hear the truth told?

Black and White Thinking

George W. Bush's message to the world is that "we are different" from the rest of the world, exceptional, bearing extraordinary burdens, possessed of extraordinary gifts. That the rest of the world objects to this characterization is not much of a surprise. Fareed Zacharia explains in the WaPo:

President Bush's Thanksgiving trip to Iraq was a generous and bold-hearted gesture of support to American troops. What made it such a success, however, was that it managed to severely limit an otherwise unavoidable aspect of travel: contact with foreigners. When Bush has had to go beyond U.S. Army bases in recent weeks, the tours have not gone so well.

Traveling through East Asia last week, I noted how poorly most observers rated Bush's recent trip there. Even more striking, however, was the comparison repeatedly made between Bush's visit and that of Chinese President Hu Jintao -- with a thumping majority believing Hu had done better.

In Thailand at the meeting for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, "there was no question that Hu was the better appreciated one," a Thai official said to me. "He outshone Bush in most of the attendees' eyes." The trips ended with the two making back-to-back visits to Australia. Bush was greeted with demonstrations, his address to Parliament interrupted by hecklers. Hu, on the other hand, got a 20-minute standing ovation from Parliament. "It is Hu's visit rather than George W. Bush's that will provide a lingering sense of satisfaction and security about Australia's place in the region," wrote the Australian, a newspaper owned by Rupert Murdoch and not given to knee-jerk anti-Americanism.

What is going on here? How does the chief representative of the world's oldest constitutional democracy lose a popularity contest to the leader of a Leninist party?
Let's start with the atmospherics. Everywhere Bush travels, his security is handled with the usual American overkill: huge numbers of guards and aides, walled-off compounds, tightly scripted movements from one bubble to another. Hu, by contrast, had a modest security detail, traveled freely and mingled with other leaders and even the general public. (Tony Blair sometimes manages to travel abroad with a total of six people.)

Bush's trip to London two weeks ago is now being heralded as a great success. But here is how one of the president's most ardent supporters, his former speechwriter David Frum, saw it while in London himself. "Bush was sealed away from London for the entire visit. There was no drive down the Mall, no address to Parliament, no public events at all," Frum wrote in his Weblog on National Review Online. "The trip's planners reduced the risk of confrontations -- but only by broadcasting to the British public their tacit acknowledgement that the visit was unpopular and unwelcome. By eliminating from the president's schedule events with any touch of spontaneity or public contact, the trip planners made the president look as if he could not or would not engage with ordinary British people." In Great Britain, Frum concluded, "the United States has a problem, a big one -- and it was made worse, not better, by this recent visit."

But the deeper problem is not one of style but of substance. Bush's trips to Southeast Asia and Australia focused single-mindedly on the war on terror. Karim Raslan, a Malaysian writer, explained the local reaction: "Bush came to an economic group [APEC] and talked obsessively about terror. He sees all of us through that one prism. Yes, we worry about terror, but frankly that's not the sum of our lives. We have many other problems. We're retooling our economies, we're wondering how to deal with the rise of China, we're trying to address health, social and environmental problems. Hu talked about all this; he talked about our agenda, not just his agenda."

There is a lack of empathy emanating from Washington. After the Bali bombings, which were Australia's Sept. 11, the administration did not bother to send a high-level envoy to a steadfast ally for condolences. Australians had to make do with a videotape of George Bush. Even last week, Bush could surely have arranged to meet in Baghdad with a few troops from allied countries who are also fighting and dying in Iraq.

What is most dismaying about this state of affairs is that for the past 50 years the United States has skillfully merged its own agenda with the agendas of others, creating a sense of shared interests and values. When Presidents Truman, Eisenhower and Kennedy waged the Cold War, they also presented the world with a constructive agenda dealing with trade, poverty and health. They fought communism with one hand and offered hope with the other. We have fallen far from that model if the head of the Chinese Communist Party is seen as presenting the world with a more progressive agenda than the president of the world's leading democracy.

It isn't really all that hard to demonstrate empathy. It does require a willingness to listen, even if one isn't disposed to act on what one hears. The W administration doesn't listen, it pontificates. The "with us or against us" mentality reduces the complexity the rest of the world has to live with to a false dichotomy.

Letters, We get Letters

This is amazing to me: I've been a "poster" in the blogosphere for, what, about 5 weeks, and already I have loyal readers. I love the community forming in the comments threads, but I get emails, too, from all over the world. I asked for permission to quote from this antipodean Regular Reader's letter (and y'all send me links to articles from all over the world, and I appreciate that, too) and RR said quote away. I bring this up because I think RR makes a point that those of us of the American persuasion tend to forget. RR writes:

"....I genuinely don't understand the Dean thing - I bought the issue of "Time"
magazine with him on the cover some months ago now. I tried reading the
Dean Blog (and finally gave up on it). The women in my Baseball group, I
think, are genuinely surprised that I know so much about the US. What they
don't seem to realise is that even though I've only travelled to the US in
2000, we have US news in our bulletin every day, we have international
documentaries on our news media, virtually every movie in our local cinema
is American, we get to see every Emmy-winning TV series (and quite a few
that will never win awards) in our living room, we can watch American TV
evangelists on 4 different free-to-air channels, some of them daily, we can
even follow MLB Baseball from home (I know this one personally) - and yet, a
whole year can pass by and where I live won't be mentioned in any media in
any part of your culture. And I'm fine with that, too. I guess my question
is, though, if we're seen to be silent, is that taken as tacit approval of
American cultural values? From here, there's just no way of knowing. I
caught some snatches of one of the debates on CNN a while back, and I think
it was Gephardt saying that the rest of the world is yearning for the
freedoms of the US. Well, that makes me wince, because from where I sit, I
just don't think it's true, but it sure sounds good for a domestic US
audience....

"I only sit here, read, and think - and I certainly agree that 2004 will be a
watershed year, not just for the US either. If Bush is not re-elected I
think you will find the goodwill of the rest of the non-Muslim world will
reappear, regarding Iraq. Yes, it's a mess, and, yes, it's not "our" fight,
but right now with US forces so tied up there Bush can't peel off and do it
again somewhere else. The next president will be given a terrific
opportunity by the rest of the world to use that goodwill better than his
predecessor - one can but hope he can get it right. We may not have agreed
with the decision to go into Iraq, but it isn't in our best interests for
the US military to suffer humiliating defeat in the Middle East either. But
I'm not confident that Bush will roll over and/or go quietly. How many of
us are on the planet? How many are watching to see whether the good
populace of the US will do for us what we need them to do, but have no means
of bringing about? A very significant number, I think."

**********************

We 'Muricans forget this. As I said to RR in an email, we Americans have very big feet and we tend to forget that the choices we make effect everybody on the planet, and they don't get to vote. That's worth thinking about in the run-up to the next election.

Going back to the '60's, the sci-fi writers opened us up to the idea of being global citizens. Whether we are willing or not, global citizenship has already happened. Our cultures, religions and markets are all inter-penetrated. As my Regular Reader points out, the US has more "valence" in the global culture than anyone else, and I think that also gives us some responsibility. Discuss.

[Letter policy, at least for now: if you send me an email, I'll assume it is a private correspondance. If I want to quote it on the blog, I'll ask for permission and keep your identity private. This is somewhat the opposite of the Welborn protocol, and will only work while the email traffic remains relatively light. I'll adjust to a new standard and announce it as the situation warrants.]

On The Dial

Liberal Radio Group Says It Is Close to Acquiring 5 Stations

By JIM RUTENBERG
Published: December 1, 2003

A Democratic investment group planning to start a liberal radio network to counterbalance conservative radio hosts like Rush Limbaugh says it is close to buying radio stations in five major cities.

The acquisitions would represent a major move toward making the network real. After its conception was announced in February, many radio analysts and even some Democratic activists predicted that the network would face too many challenges to get off the ground, including finding stations to run its programming and bucking a historical record replete with failed liberal radio attempts.

But executives with the newly formed company, Progress Media, said late last week that if all went as planned they would have the network running by early spring, in time to be part of the public dialogue during the presidential campaign season.

The executives said the stations they were acquiring reached all radios in 5 of the 10 largest media markets: New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Philadelphia and Boston. They said they would buy stations in other markets in the near future.

The knock on liberals is that we are too diverse and diffuse to support liberal radio the way the unipolar dittoheads support right-wing radio. Personally, I'd support The Al Franken Show, the Jeanene Garofolo show or, heaven help up, the Molly Ivins show, if they can lure her away from Texas. I watch John Stewart because he's good, he's entertaining, and that is the same audience that ought to enjoy this new radio network.

The producers signed up so far promise to skewer the "holier than thou" pundits of the right. Mockery is an excellent tool and more effective than polemic.

changing the Tone

Remember when W promised to "change the tone" in Washington?

On Hill, relations take turn for worse

Over the course of more than a year, Republicans have foiled their opponents on issues large and small, and in ways that Democrats say are unprincipled if not illegal. The result is an exceptionally bitter atmosphere in the nation's capital, far from the harmonious world Bush promised as a candidate, and one that is widely expected to influence the dynamics of next year's presidential race.

From chasing down fugitive Democrats in the Texas Legislature when they tried to flee a vote on redistricting, to calling the Capitol police on Democrats in the US House, to shutting Democrats out of routine meetings, Republican leaders in Congress have given their opponents a slew of concrete incidents to protest. And on a grander scale, Bush has infuriated the minority party with tough rhetoric and hardball tactics -- starting with his campaign against former senator Max Cleland, a disabled veteran who lost reelection last year after Bush's chosen candidate, Saxby Chambliss, questioned Cleland's commitment to homeland security.

"I thought I'd seen everything, the way the Republicans behaved during the Clinton years," Representative James McGovern, Democrat of Worcester, said. "I thought it couldn't get any worse. It is worse."

Former House speaker Thomas S. Foley, a Democrat, agreed on the state of relations. "I thini there is an unfortunate intensity of tensions between the parties. That's been true for several years," he said. "And if anything, it has become more severe during the present administration."

Norm Ornstein, politics scholar at the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, a conservative think tank in Washington, said: "It has changed, much for the worse."

I've lived in Washington since 1985, through budget shut-downs, Reaganomics, the Bush I recession, Lewinsky/Starr, and I've never seen the atmosphere as poisonous as it is right now. There is a price to be paid for continuous lies, and part of it is the complete breakdown of civil discourse. It is impossible to hold a debate about public policy when one of the debaters bases everything they say on lies.

The Picture War

We are getting the easy stuff wrong. There is no excuse for this.

Losing the Media War

ONE BATTLE THAT the occupation authority in Iraq has been steadily losing is that of the media. Since the fall of Saddam Hussein there has been an explosion of information sources in the country; more than 200 newspapers are being published, and Iraqis have rushed by the tens of thousands to acquire satellite equipment allowing them to watch Arab and other international news stations. Meanwhile, the coalition's own attempts to broadcast news and information have been woefully deficient. Although it controls Iraq's main broadcast channel, two domestic radio stations and a major newspaper, the authority and its American contractors have failed to capture the Iraqi audience -- news programs, in particular, smack of sanitization. The problem is made all the more serious by the fact that Arab satellite broadcasters are at once more skilled in production, more credible with many Iraqis and wildly biased against the U.S. mission. Last week, with the approval of the Bush administration, Iraq's Governing Council reacted by shutting down the Baghdad operation of one of the two leading broadcasters, al-Arabiya. In addition to setting a terrible precedent for press freedom in Iraq, this will only make the underlying problem worse.

Remind me again, why is it that we have 130,000 troops in Iraq? Because they hate freedom?