Summer Forecast

U.S. Predicts Busy Hurricane Season

By Jim Loney
Reuters
Monday, May 22, 2006; 11:03 AM

MIAMI (Reuters) - The 2006 Atlantic hurricane season will be very active, with up to 10 hurricanes, although not as busy as record-breaking 2005, when Hurricane Katrina and several monster storms slammed into the United States, the U.S. government's top climate agency said Monday.

"For the 2006 North Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA is predicting 13 to 16 named storms, with eight to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which four to six could become 'major' hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher," said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The most damage is caused by storms that reach Category 3, with winds of 111-130 mph, or higher on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane activity. Scientists were way off the mark in their forecasts of last year's hurricane season. The season starts June 1 each year.

The 2005 hurricane season spawned an unprecedented 28 tropical storms, of which 15 became hurricanes. NOAA had predicted 12 to 15 tropical storms, of which it said seven to nine would be hurricanes. Seven of last year's hurricanes were considered "major," while NOAA had predicted only three to five would reach that level.

A record four major hurricanes hit the United States, including Katrina, which devastated New Orleans, killed 1,300 people and caused $80 billion in damage. Rita slammed into Louisiana and Texas, and Wilma briefly became the most intense Atlantic hurricane ever recorded. "

Although NOAA is not forecasting a repeat of last year's season, the potential for hurricanes striking the U.S. is high," Lautenbacher said in prepared remarks in Miami.

The Bermuda High, which protects the Northern East Coast of the US in most years, will be weaker and further at sea this year, so the entire Coast is at risk. I'm dreading this.

Home Insurers Embrace the Heartland

By JOSEPH B. TREASTER
New York Times

But in places like Long Island and Cape Cod as well as the coasts in the Southeast, insurers are doubling prices for some customers and refusing to sell new policies or renew old ones. Recently, State Farm, the largest home insurer, sought an increase averaging 71 percent for home insurance in Florida.

The insurers have been raising prices and cutting back coverage for homes in Florida and the Gulf Coast for years. But now, they have begun to apply the same measures in coastal areas that have not experienced a devastating storm in decades.

"The insurers simply can't bet the entire farm on insuring the coastal areas," said Robert P. Hartwig, the chief economist for the Insurance Information Institute, a trade group in New York. They "are looking to the rest of the country as an opportunity for profitability."